ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[AutoPenalti]

With the latest model output it seems like this has maybe another 24 hours to close off before the window closes--seems everything is trending downward now that the data from the recon earlier was ingested as this is the first time the GEM and GFS were in agreement on weakening.

Recon data were not inputted in this run.

[SoupBone]

With the latest model output it seems like this has maybe another 24 hours to close off before the window closes--seems everything is trending downward now that the data from the recon earlier was ingested as this is the first time the GEM and GFS were in agreement on weakening.

Recon data were not inputted in this run.

Well that makes these latest runs even more confusing.

[STRiZZY]

00z HWRF well south of 18z through 15hrs.

[Beef Stew]

The more disorganized 92L is as it crosses over the DR, the less harm "the shredder" will inflict (e.g. Fay, 2008)- and the GFS tonight sure is keeping things sloppy. Given this, and that- 1) the NHC noted at 11pm EDT of the likelihood of shear being over-accounted for (in this case self-produced shear from 92L itself) in some of the global models, 2) the models will finally begin to incorporate recon data in some of tomorrow's runs, and 3) we are still lacking a defined, bona fide cyclone- I would not be surprised to see an uptick in tomorrow's modeled intensity and organization upon approach to/through the FL straits. However, it is important to note that there is still a higher degree of uncertainty than normal due to 92L's sprawling nature, and at this stage it is not above the models to miss a particular feature or motion of the storm that could ultimately direct its outcome (as a certain D storm reminded us last year).

[blp]

00z JMA tries to miss Hispaniola to the south. I think the idea of missing Hispaniola to the south is gaining momentum.

[STRiZZY]

Maybe I'm just tired from only having 3 hours of sleep but is the 00z HWRF ~130mi south of 18z through 24hrs?

[STRiZZY]

00z HWRF 27HR

~130mi south of PR now.

[WxEp]

Maybe I'm just tired from only having 3 hours of sleep but is the 00z HWRF ~130mi south of 18z through 24hrs?

00z HWRF appears to have initialized the center near 14.1N 58.5W. The 6 hour position from the 18z (which, in theory, should put them near the same spot), had the center near 15.4N 56.7W.

[CM2]

00z HWRF 27HR
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020072900/hwrf_ref_09L_9.png
~130mi south of PR now.

At what point does this just turn into a standard Caribbean storm which finds its way into the Gulf?

[STRiZZY]

00z HWRF 27HR
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020072900/hwrf_ref_09L_9.png
~130mi south of PR now.

At what point does this just turn into a standard Caribbean storm which finds its way into the Gulf?

We'll see... I made a post about two days ago on how I thought that was still a possibility. The 00z Euro on the 24th was showing this and formed a strong hurricane into the Yucatan Channel.

[STRiZZY]

HWRF heading for the Mona Passage at 30HR

Takes a real sharp northerly turn.

[STRiZZY]

I stand corrected make that the DR not the MP.
HR39

[WxEp]

Doesn't seem to have as much dry air around in its farther south location (relative to recent HWRF runs).

[STRiZZY]

Gunning for the central mountain range of the DR at HR39

[Hurricaneman]

The HWRF makes no sense with that track especially if it starts way south of Puerto Rico with a ridge

[STRiZZY]

HWRF runs down the spine of Cordillera Central mountain range.


HWRF HR50

[WxEp]

Parallel HWRF takes PTC9 on a very similar path as the normal HWRF:




Appears to be about to re-emerge off the coast 6 hours later:

[SoupBone]

It's moving so fast though, would the mountains disrupt it as much?

[STRiZZY]

It's moving so fast though, would the mountains disrupt it as much?

Not as much no...

[lsuhurricane]

UKMET into Tampa as a weak TD