ATL: LAURA - Models

[BobHarlem]

Pucker up

[SFLcane]

[supercane4867]

06z HWRF is likely the strongest run so far. Probably pushing for a solid CAT5.

[kevin]

HMON 06z crashes it into Miami as a major 954 mbar hurricane.

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF big shift north. Going to go north of Andros this time. Probably will hit Broward or Palm Beach this run.

[invest man]

06z HWRF clearly clears the islands heading on a westerly course towards potentially FL. Run still not done

Can see a scenario where that western ridge slightly breaks down 24 hrs quicker or models over doing the strength of the ridge, where this could approach SFL south of Miami and take a trip up the eastern 1/3 of the spine before exiting south of Jacksonville. Gfs also shows it slowing to make that curve back NE ward. I think models will soon adjust especially if they begin to depict a high end cat 3 or 4. Not a met, just an observer!

[caneseddy]

HMON landfall over downtown Miami heading WNW

[Shell Mound]

Hwrf gonna end very ugly

Based on the simulated IR presentation, with the convection “weighted” toward the SE quadrant, ridging is likely potent.

The modelled track looks to extend from just N of Grand Turk → N of Mayaguana → over Nassau → Fort Lauderdale area.

[AubreyStorm]

HMON landfall over downtown Miami heading WNW

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF may scrape SFL. HR 96 moving NW.

Never mind, it looks to head towards the Space Coast

[caneseddy]

HMON, after barreling thought metro SF heads WNW and exits into the Gulf around Tampa Bay

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF recurves. Looks like the magic trapdoor opened. This model is right biased though.

Edit: By recurve I meant miss SFL. Looks like it makes landfall on the treasure coast.

[WeatherEmperor]

What am I waking up to?? GFS and HMON into South Florida? Looks like HWRF wants to hit Palm Beach




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[AutoPenalti]

I don’t think we should use this for track anyway. The intensity pretty much takes away the fact that conditions will be favorable approaching the Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

6z Euro.. still initiallizing a weak open wave .. looks like are waiting for 12z cycle.
.

[USTropics]

06z GFS ensemble members have trended stronger:

[BobHarlem]

HMON Ends right over Tampa bay, as a cat 2.

[supercane4867]

[jlauderdal]

06z HWRF is likely the strongest run so far. Probably pushing for a solid CAT5.

HWRF being the hwrf but it cant be completely discounted based on what we know which is high quality ssts and a low shear environment...best shot for florida and the gulf coast is once again the islands doing there thing, at this point the euro solution if weak will have to be discounted big time

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF