ATL: LAURA - Models

[Shell Mound]

HWRF recurves. Looks like the magic trapdoor opened. This model is right biased though.

Edit: By recurve I meant miss SFL. Looks like it makes landfall on the treasure coast.

Do any professionals care to comment on this? Does the HWRF have a pronounced rightward bias with stronger systems?

[SFLcane]

You bet that track is shifting towards metro SFL now.

[gatorcane]

06Z HWRF misses South Florida completely:

[AutoPenalti]

That’s a 300 mile difference compared to its last run.

[Shell Mound]

06Z HWRF misses South Florida completely:

https://i.postimg.cc/Tw670NMk/hwrf-z850-vort-13-L-40.png

The track and intensity is very similar to that of Matthew (2016), since it traverses the passage between PBI and Freeport as a Category-4+ TC.

[toad strangler]

SOoooo far out (in mileage NOT time) still. Tracks will keep shifting.

[gatorcane]

06Z HWRF misses South Florida completely:

https://i.postimg.cc/Tw670NMk/hwrf-z850-vort-13-L-40.png

The track and intensity is very similar to that of Matthew (2016), since it traverses the passage between PBI and Freeport as a Category-4+ TC.

Runs it along the east coast of Florida on a recurve. Yes similar to Matthew. The models leaves the door open for a possible recurve of this in future runs maybe even just east of Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

From the looks of it. the sudden NW ( temporary) movement from the HWRF appears to be from 97L being a little stronger to the right. Close enough to affect the track some.

So just to be clear. nothing has changed with the overall Synoptics i.e the ridging or anything for this HWRF it appears all very similar.

just a stronger 97L causes some new variables.

[NDG]

We could be looking at another case just like during Isaias that the HWRF is right biased in its long range, but way too early to know for sure.

[toad strangler]

06Z HWRF misses South Florida completely:

https://i.postimg.cc/Tw670NMk/hwrf-z850-vort-13-L-40.png

The track and intensity is very similar to that of Matthew (2016), since it traverses the passage between PBI and Freeport as a Category-4+ TC.

Runs it along the east coast of Florida on a recurve. Yes similar to Matthew. The models leaves the door open for a possible recurve of this in future runs maybe even just east of Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/T1zvRq5B/hwrf-ref-13-L-41.png

Not posting the GFS this morning?

[invest man]

From the looks of it. the sudden NW ( temporary) movement from the HWRF appears to be from 97L being a little stronger to the right. Close enough to affect the track some.

So just to be clear. nothing has changed with the overall Synoptics i.e the ridging or anything for this HWRF it appears all very similar


just a stronger 97L causes some new variables.

Wouldn’t a stronger 97 tend to erode the western periphery of the HP and allow 13 to follow that western periphery?

[supercane4867]

There is no synoptic trough to speak of to induce a rapid northward movement. This is no Matthew.

[Shell Mound]

From the looks of it. the sudden NW ( temporary) movement from the HWRF appears to be from 97L being a little stronger to the right. Close enough to affect the track some.

That’s not what I see on the HWRF. The system gradually turns NNW near the longitude of Nassau, so it clearly rounds the periphery of the ridge, with a track paralleling the east coast of FL and making a brief landfall on Cape Canaveral. In other words, the synoptic situation on the HWRF is extremely similar to that of Matthew (2016). If the threshold of landfall were to be so narrow as shown on the HWRF, then climatology would indicate that such a strong TC would most likely curve just offshore of FL. These kinds of scenarios usually end up with the storm staying offshore. Unless future runs show an even stronger ridge, a high-end Category-4+ TC would likely just miss FL, as Matthew and then Dorian did.

[Aric Dunn]

From the looks of it. the sudden NW ( temporary) movement from the HWRF appears to be from 97L being a little stronger to the right. Close enough to affect the track some.

That’s not what I see on the HWRF. The system gradually turns NNW near the longitude of Nassau, so it clearly rounds the periphery of the ridge, with a track paralleling the east coast of FL and making a brief landfall on Cape Canaveral. In other words, the synoptic situation on the HWRF is extremely similar to that of Matthew (2016). If the threshold of landfall were to be so narrow as shown on the HWRF, then climatology would indicate that such a strong TC would most likely curve just offshore of FL. These kinds of scenarios usually end up with the storm staying offshore. Unless future runs show an even stronger ridge, a high-end Category-4+ TC would likely just miss FL, as Matthew and then Dorian did.

unfortunately, there is not a trough that is in play here like the other systems.

we will have to wait for the HWRF-P 12z to really check. .. assuming the 12z does not switch back.

but the only difference is that 97L is stronger and faster and pushes back the ridging some allowing td13 to lift more to nw.

[jfk08c]

From the looks of it. the sudden NW ( temporary) movement from the HWRF appears to be from 97L being a little stronger to the right. Close enough to affect the track some.

That’s not what I see on the HWRF. The system gradually turns NNW near the longitude of Nassau, so it clearly rounds the periphery of the ridge, with a track paralleling the east coast of FL and making a brief landfall on Cape Canaveral. In other words, the synoptic situation on the HWRF is extremely similar to that of Matthew (2016). If the threshold of landfall were to be so narrow as shown on the HWRF, then climatology would indicate that such a strong TC would most likely curve just offshore of FL. These kinds of scenarios usually end up with the storm staying offshore. Unless future runs show an even stronger ridge, a high-end Category-4+ TC would likely just miss FL, as Matthew and then Dorian did.

I will need to see more models begin a more Eastward nudge before I can entertain the idea of a recurve. A single HWRF run just doesn't do it for me. Could be entirely right but it's also possible that there was some bad data involved. Waiting for the next set of runs to see if a trend is setting up

[jlauderdal]

06Z HWRF misses South Florida completely:

https://i.postimg.cc/Tw670NMk/hwrf-z850-vort-13-L-40.png

The track and intensity is very similar to that of Matthew (2016), since it traverses the passage between PBI and Freeport as a Category-4+ TC.

Runs it along the east coast of Florida on a recurve. Yes similar to Matthew. The models leaves the door open for a possible recurve of this in future runs maybe even just east of Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/T1zvRq5B/hwrf-ref-13-L-41.png

it could als be its right hand bias and it has the system so deep its going poleward, lets see how the gfs and euro today see the setup...until we get some recon on the ridging we wont really know how much of a threat to florida it is

[Dean4Storms]

I can see the possibility right now of the HMON scenario but all the major global models including UKMET have a stout ridge over Florida much of next week so that HWRF run seems very suspect for now with the caveat "for now." A track over South Florida seems possible with a stronger storm.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is a good luck at the latest 6z GEFS ensemble mean




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[chris_fit]

Anyone have the 06Z EURO ENS?

[SFLcane]

Anyone have the 06Z EURO ENS?

Not out yet.