ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Whoa!!

[Stormgodess]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly further EAST of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

Personally? I'd get ready to leave, possibly Thursday or Friday morning around 2:30 AM; there is less traffic then. We left New Orleans at 2:30 AM on Sunday, the day before Katrina hit, and we were able to drive 55 mph all the way to Jackson. Anyway, in your case I'd make the decision whether to evacuate or not just before leaving. You'll know. If it looks like a good idea to go, then I'd drive to somewhere out of harm's way and get a motel room. Yes it's a financial struggle but if it seemed advisable then I'd do it and worry about money later.

That said, we are elderly, in New Orleans, and presently we are NOT planning to evacuate especially if landfall at a cat 1-2 is expected. If it continues to strengthen we might change our minds. I had several HUGE water oaks at my house, but had every tree removed back in 2016.

Being in Morgan City as they are, I would be planning on following the directions of the local leaders which will probably start issuing evacuation orders tonight or tomorrow.

Oh, sorry to confuse you, we arent in Morgan city, that was just the lastest landfall location at the time I grabbed the map image, We are in Albany, the B location of the map image I posted

[GCANE]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313529818382839808
ICyclone is officially flying over Yucatán while en route...

Josh knows what he's doing.
Anybody else I would call nuts.

[Shell Mound]

Whoa!!

https://i.imgur.com/ZGJhUtZ.png

A weaker version of Typhoon Ivan (1997, above)

[aspen]

Talk about cold

[HurricaneEnzo]

CDO nice and cold again maybe time to resume steady strengthening

Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk

[supercane4867]

CDO has cooled significantly in the past hour.

[TheProfessor]

No matter what anyone here can tell you, it won't be better than the professionals at the NHC or your local Nation Weather Service Office. Getting in contact with your local EMA could also be helpful. The Red Cross has a great map for general evacuation ideas in Louisiana. This PDF also has multiple contacts for agencies as well. The Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness could be a helpful contact, they are letter C in the Agency Contact Information.

https://maps.redcross.org/website/maps/ ... 1_evac.pdf

The thing is... We are far enough inland, we NEVER get Madatory evac orders. We are just far enough away from the coast to not be a major concern, but close enough that it can still be a very dangerous situation here. People in this area generally never evacuated for a storm, but man Katrina made us ALL rethink that!

Also, when it comes to thinking about evac. You also face the concern that you are possibly taking a hotel room from someone further south that need it more. We jumped early for Gustav 5 days before landfall, and decided to leave, and the closest room we found was North Arkansas 6 hrs away.

If you don't feel comfortable in your location then you certainly shouldn't wait for mandatory evacuations, especially if they don't issue them where you live. I know the trees are definitely concerning, it's one of the reasons why my parents may still evacuate even though they just moved to a place 100 feet above the ground. You also have to think about how much supply you have and whether or not you can survive for 2 weeks with potentially no electricity and no road access. If all those are doubtful then it's definitely worth evacuating. I can't tell you a good location to evacuate right now, but you at the very least can be prepared to leave so you're not trying to prepare when you do realize you need to evacuate. The last thing I want to happen, though, is for someone to evacuate right into the path of the storm.

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1313519442043850753

A fujiwhara effect would push Delta farther north/east.

Actually with the center of rotation where he has it, more west.

[Steve]

Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly further EAST of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

https://i.postimg.cc/y8CJTk34/Delta.png

I think I'd go to my daughter's.

[louise_l]

*hugs* Do y'all have a place to go if you decide to leave? I really hope you consider leaving also, with New Orleans being on the east side of this thing, I worry about the flooding with you guys. Were yall in the city for Katrina? If at any time it somehow looks worse for yall than us here on the Northshore, and you have trouble finding a room. Please msg me if our houses seem safer than yours. My door is always open.

Aw, thanks for caring! We'll be fine. We were here for Katrina, but evacuated at the last minute. We didn't have as much damage as most, due to just plain luck I suppose.

We can afford a motel room, and if Delta is projected to be a strong hurricane at landfall, then we will definitely leave. My (elderly) long time "boyfriend" doesn't know that yet and thinks we're staying. LOL But if I put my foot down he'll reluctantly leave with me. We don't like driving such a long distance, but we can still do it. We can switch off and take turns driving if it is too tiring.

[crimi481]

Delta should expand in size soon, as "D" continues to absorb the energy from "G". Amazing stuff

[us89]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1313519442043850753

A fujiwhara effect would push Delta farther north/east.

Actually with the center of rotation where he has it, more west.

I doubt a Fujiwhara effect would have much of an effect on Delta. What's left of Gamma is just a tiny blip on Delta's radar.

Gamma, on the other hand, is going to become Delta lunch.

[petit_bois]

[quote="Steve"][quote="Stormgodess"]Ok guys, I trust all y'alls advice, I DO understand we should listen to the advice of professionals, and would never hold anything against you guys if wrong. I understand with these storms nothing is assurred.

But I have ALOT of people depending on me to make the decision on what to do when we face a storm like this. And I just dont know what I should do right now, or what to tell them. But they follow my lead

Ok here is our situation.... The map below location B is the basic location, We live inland from the coast, but I know from wind damage we have had from both Katrina and Gustav, a Cat 4 storm is nothing to play around with.

We live in a mobile home and wont stay here for even a Trop Storm. But here are our options. My daughter's home, with a 1 yr old baby is exactly at the Location B.... Newer wood frame home,(not confident in strength of house) but no trees near house. My mother in laws home(which is where we rode out Katrina) is about 15 miles west of that location, 50's model STRONG Brick Ranch style, BUT... Surrounded by trees.

So basically, My husband, My daughter her husband, and baby, My mother in law, and my son who also lives in a mobile home in Albany, are ALL waiting on me to make the decision as to what we do.

Do we all load up at Daughter's home, slightly closer to storm track, newer model wood frame, not confident in its strength but no trees.
Do we all load up and go to Mother In Laws's house, slightly further EAST of storm track, but tank of a home, but SURROUNDED by trees.

Or.... Do we all load up which would be a financial struggle, and leave?

If it was you.... What would you do???

What would I do? Surf until they close the beaches then head north!

[ConvergenceZone]

As Levi mentioned, the intensification appears to be leveling off, at least for now. But it could possibly still intensify later today more......A Cat 4 hitting the Cancon area will be devastating regardless.

[p1nheadlarry]

Hurricane Isabel as a Cat-4, no eye yet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdRbed7ZUjg&t=2m36s

[aspen]

Delta will probably pause its intensification until it’s able to start clearing out its eye. Right now, I can’t really tell where exactly it’ll be clearing; there’s a larger space of <-85C convection a few times wider than the tiny 4nmi eyewall.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Unless there is a drastic change over the next 12-24 hours in the tendency of the models I believe the MS & AL coasts are going to be 100% in the clear of Delta. Trends are one thing, but looks like we are beginning to see more agreement instead.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1313537736326942721

[Highteeld]

2020OCT06 172018 4.0 982.4 65.0 4.0 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -73.26 -79.07 EMBC N/A 15.0 18.51 83.32 ARCHER GOES16 23.6

That's an insane CDO for an Atlantic storm, especially during daytime