ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Yep, going to be an interesting night for sure... looks like the strengthening process is underway...

[northjaxpro]

Yep, going to be an interesting night for sure... looks like the strengthening process is underway...

I agree. Beginning to see the first signs of convection firing near the center. The farther the center gets away from the Yucatan and over open GOM sea, the convection will notably increase , especially this evening.

[underthwx]

The higher CAPE air is working its way into the core now.
Seeing a lot more overshooting tops.

https://i.imgur.com/iNdNLaX.png

Overall...Zeta still has maintained the round cloud structure....don't you think so Gcane?....that's the best way I can describe it, lol

[Chemmers]

defo seeing alot more over shoot top now, think it will intensify quick

[wxman57]

I definitely see a MLC south of the LLC, which makes it hard to quickly ramp-up. Some showers are now developing south of the LLC. I seriously doubt this has more than 50 kt winds, and then only in a tiny area, if that. Really took a hit. Too bad we've had no recon today. Did the plane have problems? I have been too busy to check in.

Will Zeta become a hurricane again? That's what we're forecasting, but it's window of opportunity for strengthening closes tomorrow morning when it starts butting up against the jet stream just ahead of the cold front. My coworker put 75 kts at landfall, but I'm thinking lower. It's behaving itself track-wise. I think New Orleans may get some strong TS winds with gusts 75-85 mph possible. Don't believe any land station in SE LA will report a sustained hurricane-force wind. The gusts will be there, though. HWY 90 between Bay St. Louis and Biloxi will be at least partly underwater tomorrow afternoon as the tides increase to 3-4 ft above normal.

Not a lot of rain. Rule of thumb is to divide forward speed into 100 to estimate rain. At 25-30 mph forward speed, I'm not expecting a lot of rain. GFS has a band of 2-4 inches along the track, which seems reasonable. Don't know when the last time I predicted 2-4 inches of rain with a landfalling hurricane. Don't remember one hitting the Gulf coast at 30 mph, either.

[jconsor]

Thanks for your valuable perspective, wxman57. Aside from sparsely populated bayou areas of SE LA (well SE of New Orleans metro), I believe the best chance for sustained hurricane force winds is over coastal MS and AL. With Zeta expanding in size and becoming more east-weighted (due to interaction with jet you mentioned), strongest band of winds will likely be a significant distance E of the track.

Any sustained hurricane force winds in rural SE LA are less likely to be actually measured given the lack of weather stations in that area.

I definitely see a MLC south of the LLC, which makes it hard to quickly ramp-up. Some showers are now developing south of the LLC. I seriously doubt this has more than 50 kt winds, and then only in a tiny area, if that. Really took a hit. Too bad we've had no recon today. Did the plane have problems? I have been too busy to check in.

Will Zeta become a hurricane again? That's what we're forecasting, but it's window of opportunity for strengthening closes tomorrow morning when it starts butting up against the jet stream just ahead of the cold front. My coworker put 75 kts at landfall, but I'm thinking lower. It's behaving itself track-wise. I think New Orleans may get some strong TS winds with gusts 75-85 mph possible. Don't believe any land station in SE LA will report a sustained hurricane-force wind. The gusts will be there, though. HWY 90 between Bay St. Louis and Biloxi will be at least partly underwater tomorrow afternoon as the tides increase to 3-4 ft above normal.

Not a lot of rain. Rule of thumb is to divide forward speed into 100 to estimate rain. At 25-30 mph forward speed, I'm not expecting a lot of rain. GFS has a band of 2-4 inches along the track, which seems reasonable. Don't know when the last time I predicted 2-4 inches of rain with a landfalling hurricane. Don't remember one hitting the Gulf coast at 30 mph, either.

[ColdMiser123]

I definitely see a MLC south of the LLC, which makes it hard to quickly ramp-up. Some showers are now developing south of the LLC. I seriously doubt this has more than 50 kt winds, and then only in a tiny area, if that. Really took a hit. Too bad we've had no recon today. Did the plane have problems? I have been too busy to check in.

Will Zeta become a hurricane again? That's what we're forecasting, but it's window of opportunity for strengthening closes tomorrow morning when it starts butting up against the jet stream just ahead of the cold front. My coworker put 75 kts at landfall, but I'm thinking lower. It's behaving itself track-wise. I think New Orleans may get some strong TS winds with gusts 75-85 mph possible. Don't believe any land station in SE LA will report a sustained hurricane-force wind. The gusts will be there, though. HWY 90 between Bay St. Louis and Biloxi will be at least partly underwater tomorrow afternoon as the tides increase to 3-4 ft above normal.

Not a lot of rain. Rule of thumb is to divide forward speed into 100 to estimate rain. At 25-30 mph forward speed, I'm not expecting a lot of rain. GFS has a band of 2-4 inches along the track, which seems reasonable. Don't know when the last time I predicted 2-4 inches of rain with a landfalling hurricane. Don't remember one hitting the Gulf coast at 30 mph, either.

Looks slightly misaligned to me, but I don't think that should be a tremendous hinderance with such low wind shear over Zeta right now. Any kind of convective burst should quickly align any discrepancy between the low and mid level centers. I suspect that kind of convective burst will occur once the upper levels cool later tonight, and the boundary layer fluxes from the warm sea surface continue to permeate throughout the structure.

I'd be pretty surprised if this didn't come into Louisiana as a hurricane at this point.

[GCANE]

The higher CAPE air is working its way into the core now.
Seeing a lot more overshooting tops.

https://i.imgur.com/iNdNLaX.png

Overall...Zeta still has maintained the round cloud structure....don't you think so Gcane?....that's the best way I can describe it, lol

The feeder bands are definitely there.
One good high-helicity tower and this will take off.
Chances are good in the next few hours as the upper troposphere cools off.

[aspen]

Look at that, there are finally hot towers firing off. Zeta is probably well on its way to covering up its LLC again.

[Chemmers]

think there will be a big blow up just before sun set

[GCANE]

Didn't take long for the CAPE infeed to work its magic

[northjaxpro]

I definitely see a MLC south of the LLC, which makes it hard to quickly ramp-up. Some showers are now developing south of the LLC. I seriously doubt this has more than 50 kt winds, and then only in a tiny area, if that. Really took a hit. Too bad we've had no recon today. Did the plane have problems? I have been too busy to check in.

Will Zeta become a hurricane again? That's what we're forecasting, but it's window of opportunity for strengthening closes tomorrow morning when it starts butting up against the jet stream just ahead of the cold front. My coworker put 75 kts at landfall, but I'm thinking lower. It's behaving itself track-wise. I think New Orleans may get some strong TS winds with gusts 75-85 mph possible. Don't believe any land station in SE LA will report a sustained hurricane-force wind. The gusts will be there, though. HWY 90 between Bay St. Louis and Biloxi will be at least partly underwater tomorrow afternoon as the tides increase to 3-4 ft above normal.
Not a lot of rain. Rule of thumb is to divide forward speed into 100 to estimate rain. At 25-30 mph forward speed, I'm not expecting a lot of rain. GFS has a band of 2-4 inches along the track, which seems reasonable. Don't know when the last time I predicted 2-4 inches of rain with a landfalling hurricane. Don't remember one hitting the Gulf coast at 30 mph, either.

Looks slightly misaligned to me, but I don't think that should be a tremendous hinderance with such low wind shear over Zeta right now. Any kind of convective burst should quickly align any discrepancy between the low and mid level centers. I suspect that kind of convective burst will occur once the upper levels cool later tonight, and the boundary layer fluxes from the warm sea surface continue to permeate throughout the structure.

I'd be pretty surprised if this didn't come into Louisiana as a hurricane at this point.

I say it will be at least 75 KT tropical cyclone on approach to landfall Miser.

[underthwx]

The higher CAPE air is working its way into the core now.
Seeing a lot more overshooting tops.

https://i.imgur.com/iNdNLaX.png

Overall...Zeta still has maintained the round cloud structure....don't you think so Gcane?....that's the best way I can describe it, lol

The feeder bands are definitely there.
One good high-helicity tower and this will take off.
Chances are good in the next few hours as the upper troposphere cools off.

And also, looks like abundant rain...or actually, maybe not?....I just read wxman57's excellent post, so I had to edit my post, sorry!....lol

[ElectricStorm]

To me Zeta just did what any storm that spent the night over the Yucatan would do. Take a few hours to reorganize and gets going again

[slamdaddy]

Local met here on MS Coast seems to be promoting the 80-100mph gusts with 50-60mph sustained.

[underthwx]

Local met here on MS Coast seems to be promoting the 80-100mph gusts with 50-60mph sustained.

Hopefully not my friend...Wxman57 mentioned in an earlier post, that higher winds may be limited to a tiny area near the center....the Yucatan took a toll on Zeta, and hopefully it will stay a tropical storm.....I haven't spent much time following the storm, my sister is at MD Anderson in Houston not doing well, so I take breaks when I can to check in with yall.....

[Steve]

NHC adjusted the 4pm track slightly westward to come into agreement with GFS/EC.

[quietstorm]

This should be obvious but I'm not sure, so please excuse a really stupid question that I need answered for my preps/plan:
Sally hit to my east and strong wind was blowing from the north. This one will hit to the west; from what direction will Zeta's winds blow here (if they do)? From the south?

[Ken711]

INIT 27/2100Z 22.7N 90.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 24.5N 91.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.4N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 37.2N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/0600Z 40.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Stormcenter]

The interesting thing is most of the models were
west of the NHC’s track.

NHC adjusted the 4pm track slightly westward to come into agreement with GFS/EC.