ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StruThiO]

Still cant believe we're talking about a storm moving across Georgia nowhere near water

#2020ing

[CyclonicFury]

98L could be a rare New England TS landfall if a center is able to reconsolidate offshore.

[aspen]

Still cant believe we're talking about a storm moving across Georgia nowhere near water

https://i.imgur.com/s3hYoqF.png

#2020ing

Me in June: even with a potentially active hurricane season, it’s unlikely anything is going to get up to New England

Me in July: ...never taunt 2020 with something like that ever again

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Still cant believe we're talking about a storm moving across Georgia nowhere near water

https://i.imgur.com/s3hYoqF.png

#2020ing

Me in June: even with a potentially active hurricane season, it’s unlikely anything is going to get up to New England

Me in July: ...never taunt 2020 with something like that ever again

Oh that statement was just asking for trouble.

But wow, 98L has really impressed me with its ability to stay together and remain a potent feature well inland. We'll see if it manages to survive and continue trekking ENE overnight. That HRRR run is really interesting...

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/s3hYoqF.png

#2020ing

Me in June: even with a potentially active hurricane season, it’s unlikely anything is going to get up to New England

Me in July: ...never taunt 2020 with something like that ever again

Oh that statement was just asking for trouble.

But wow, 98L has really impressed me with its ability to stay together and remain a potent feature well inland. We'll see if it manages to survive and continue trekking ENE overnight. That HRRR run is really interesting...

Do you have a link for/screenshot of that HRRR run?

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Me in June: even with a potentially active hurricane season, it’s unlikely anything is going to get up to New England

Me in July: ...never taunt 2020 with something like that ever again

Oh that statement was just asking for trouble.

But wow, 98L has really impressed me with its ability to stay together and remain a potent feature well inland. We'll see if it manages to survive and continue trekking ENE overnight. That HRRR run is really interesting...

Do you have a link for/screenshot of that HRRR run?

This is from the latest HRRR run, just 18 hours out. Seems like it's wanting to pull the majority of the system's convection back over open waters east of South Carolina.

Apologies about the broken links; Gyazo was being a bit of a pain.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0623&fh=18

It's a direct link to tropical tidbits > forecast models > mescoscales > HRRR (23z) > Upper Dynamics > Simulated Satellite

[CyclonicFury]

I'm interested to see how NHC handles this if it develops all the characteristics of a tropical cyclone but the center never moves offshore. GFS and ECMWF have consistently kept 98L near the coast or just inland in recent runs, while the UKMET has favored a more offshore solution.

I'd say chances of TCG are very high if the center moves offshore, but the dynamical models suggest the current tight vortex is likely to dissipate into the larger, disorganized trough.

[Steve]

I run it all the time and never noticed that the 00z and 12z were out longer until Aric mentioned it. Next hour we get one of those runs, so it will be cool to see how it does. Sometimes it's pretty good and will get short term movement. And as he said a couple days ago, it was handling this well in the Gulf.

Looking at radar, I'd almost swear the center backed up a bit, but I think there are a couple of vorts there. They had the one a couple hours ago that was right up on I-75, and now there certainly is a spin a bit farther NW of there closer to Macon and still west of the 75. Maybe one of them was just a temporary feature. IDK

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[Steve]

Yeah Cyclonic. 00z HRRR is out to 7 hours. (I'll move to the model thread on that if it's interesting, sorry mods.) 18z NAM was pretty much meandering toward the coast. That's possible, like some of the globals have shown.

Looks to me like the setup is a brick wall ridge in the Atlantic not very far offshore. So I don't think this can get that far out and will be forced to move north at or near the coast. Also, the mid-Atlantic coast slants off NE toward the Outer Banks anyway. So even as a system moves ENE toward the coast, if it's south of NC, it's spinning its wheels a little trying to get back out to water. We'll know 2-3 days what we might be looking at in terms of later intensity I think.

[aspen]

Regardless of whether the coast-hugger or Gulf Stream solutions are correct, we’re in for a crummy Friday/Saturday here in New England.

[Steve]

Regardless of whether the coast-hugger or Gulf Stream solutions are correct, we’re in for a crummy Friday/Saturday here in New England.

Yeah but you know from living up there the difference between a few inches of rain and 25-30mph winds and potentially 60-65mph winds which have more consequences. And you have the marine interests and south facing beach erosion/tidal issues with deeper systems. I don't know about crummy though. As much as I love blue skies and sunny days, I'll take a brush with a tropical storm whenever I can get one. I guess crummy is in the eye of the beholder.

[Aric Dunn]

The money starts happening between 15 and 30 hours with e 00z HRRR.

multiple vorts start popping up well off shore.

So if we are to follow the HRRR... starting tomorrow afternoon and into the night we have to start watching for possible reformations offshore SC.

[Ubuntwo]

0z HRRR has it offshore h30, northern SC. Continues moving east for the last 6 hrs of the run.

[Aric Dunn]

these type of setups typically lead to multiple reformations. should be an interesting afternoon watching meso vorts pop up

[aspen]

Regardless of whether the coast-hugger or Gulf Stream solutions are correct, we’re in for a crummy Friday/Saturday here in New England.

Yeah but you know from living up there the difference between a few inches of rain and 25-30mph winds and potentially 60-65mph winds which have more consequences. And you have the marine interests and south facing beach erosion/tidal issues with deeper systems. I don't know about crummy though. As much as I love blue skies and sunny days, I'll take a brush with a tropical storm whenever I can get one. I guess crummy is in the eye of the beholder.

Oh, do I know. Sandy was an absolute mess (although despite 60-75 mph winds, my area actually got no rain at all), and the May 2018 Derecho was even worse, with winds briefly getting up to 110 mph and multiple tornadoes and downbursts spawning. Something like the ICON solution would be bad for both the coastal communities and people who live inland like me.

Right now, I’m just sick of it raining every other day, and not knowing whether we’re going to get clobbered by another severe thunderstorm or not.

[Steve]

Here's a unique webcam to watch the next couple of days. It's the crittervision cam in South Carolina's Low Country. It's color in the daytime and night vision at night. Raccoons and deer mostly feed in the eveninng, and yeah, it's raining there now pretty good. And there are some there now munching in the rain of maybe future Fay.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLLdLn9Lpok

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97KryZmuv5c

[storminabox]

Here's a unique webcam to watch the next couple of days. It's the crittervision cam in South Carolina's Low Country. It's color in the daytime and night vision at night. Raccoons and deer mostly feed in the eveninng, and yeah, it's raining there now pretty good. And there are some there now munching in the rain of maybe future Fay.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLLdLn9Lpok

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97KryZmuv5c

This might be the best channel out there! Thanks for exposing us to this masterpiece.

[GCANE]

Amazing, the core is still well intact.
Hasn't dropped a lick in temperature.
I've seen worse looking TS's over water.

[GCANE]