ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

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Ubuntwo
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#121 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:13 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
There have been 3 ASCAT showing a closed circ each of which showed increasing symmetry. convection has been maintaining for over 24 hours

sheared at first, but no longer. They are hesitant because the models dont like it.

Sure the models like it... Euro and GFS bring it to a borderline TS, HWRF is all the way up to high-end cat 2, and HMON has it as a high-end TS.
Why jump the gun on a system far from land with at least two days of favorable conditions to go?


Maybe because it meets the definition of a depression as outlined by the NHC now?

The last ASCAT pass was still elongated and not fully pinched off - yes it was close but for something like this they usually like verbatim evidence. Not my judgement, the NHC's.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#122 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:13 am

Let's get back on topic, enough with the NHC debate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#123 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:16 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:Sure the models like it... Euro and GFS bring it to a borderline TS, HWRF is all the way up to high-end cat 2, and HMON has it as a high-end TS.
Why jump the gun on a system far from land with at least two days of favorable conditions to go?


Maybe because it meets the definition of a depression as outlined by the NHC now?

The last ASCAT pass was still elongated and not fully pinched off - yes it was close but for something like this they usually like verbatim evidence. Not my judgement, the NHC's.



you mean this fully closed ASCAT ? http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1285381772692381697

and not sure if you can call that elongated given the scale.

and any attachment to the ITCZ was well to the SW.

compare that to now and there is zero doubt..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#124 Postby aspen » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:22 am

Looks like a TC to me. Fingers crossed it gets classified in the upcoming advisory.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#125 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:33 am

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1285513025764630528


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#126 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:42 am

Looks like at least a TD, to me. Maybe 35kts. Perfect miss by scatterometers overnight. Models dissipate it by Friday night, well east of the Caribbean. Increasing wind shear as it tracks west.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#127 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:43 am

Well this got incredibly impressive overnight. Really going to be confused if not classified asap
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#128 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:47 am

Image
slap a number on it :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#129 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:49 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..


JB is gonna RAGE against this one when his briefing comes out...lol


I watch his Saturday summary, but I'm pretty tired of his b.s. The idea that we should just not count storms because they didn't know about them in the past and therefore didn't count them is ludicrous. He whines too much.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#130 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:49 am


TD at 11AM eastern time it is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#131 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:53 am



yep if that does not do it for 11am nothing will lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#132 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:54 am



Bingo!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#133 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:57 am

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285558731481198592


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#134 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:01 am

:uarrow: Looking good on the latest ASCAT!! Tag this sucker now TD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#135 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:08 am

Those DMAX towers quickly put a spin on this.
Upper-level convective debris is flowing out radially in all directions.
Its sitting under a well developed anticyclone.
Models really puked on this one.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is a TS in the next few hours.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#136 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:10 am

GCANE wrote:Those DMAX towers quickly put a spin on this.
Upper-level convective debris is flowing out radially in all directions.
Its sitting under a well developed anticyclone.
Models really puked on this one.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is a TS in the next few hours.

https://imgur.com/XENVyIU


Yeah, could be upgraded straight to Gonzalo
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#137 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:10 am

GCANE wrote:Those DMAX towers quickly put a spin on this.
Upper-level convective debris is flowing out radially in all directions.
Its sitting under a well developed anticyclone.
Models really puked on this one.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is a TS in the next few hours.

https://imgur.com/XENVyIU


Yeah it is quite likely if recon were out there it would find TS winds. but we will have to wait for multiple ASCAT with TS winds to see that happen.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#138 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:17 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

Looks pretty good to me. I guess they just want it to sustain for a little while longer. Barring any poofs I fully expect a TD maybe minimal TS by end of day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#139 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:18 am

Steve wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..


JB is gonna RAGE against this one when his briefing comes out...lol


I watch his Saturday summary, but I'm pretty tired of his b.s. The idea that we should just not count storms because they didn't know about them in the past and therefore didn't count them is ludicrous. He whines too much.

I was speaking in terms of pure entertainment value.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#140 Postby aspen » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:19 am

No upgrade to a TD or TS in the 12z best track update.
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