ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storminabox]

This system looks like it will bring some very heavy weather tomorrow and Saturday. I’m looking forward to it. There hasn’t been a lot of action since I’ve been down here.

down where?

I should of specified. I’m located in Coral Gables at the University of Miami.

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/bq5KmvG.gif

Nice sharp wave axis...no west wind.

Only Nassau is at all close to the center, so it's hard to say whether there is a west wind. Like maybe there are some west winds west of Andros. Recon pls

There are easterly moving low level clouds on the south side.. there is very likely a vort/llc somewhere around Nassau. likely in that deep curved band.

the Nassau surface obs is not working properly.. all day yesterday it was showing west to sw winds which of course was not correct. no reason to think it is doing any better today.

so all we have right now are sporadic surface obs to far away, radar, and sat.

[Cat5James]

This system looks like it will bring some very heavy weather tomorrow and Saturday. I’m looking forward to it. There hasn’t been a lot of action since I’ve been down here.

down where?

I should of specified. I’m located in Coral Gables at the University of Miami.

Nice... I'm a meteorology major at UM

[SFLcane]

HRRR barely has rainfall across mainland SFL maybe half an Inch. Nothing we don’t get every afternoon

[Nimbus]

I looked at the buoy reports and they all had winds out of the east 80 degrees in northern Bahamas, lowest surface pressure was 1011mb just off Miami. This will look like a pretty healthy circulation on radar as it tracks in near Miami and crosses southern Florida. Some radar echoes are above 10,000 feet when they are over 50 miles from the radome location so we may not see the LLC clearly unless it tracks close to Miami.

[Aric Dunn]

I looked at the buoy reports and they all had winds out of the east 80 degrees in northern Bahamas, lowest surface pressure was 1011mb just off Miami. This will look like a pretty healthy circulation on radar as it tracks in near Miami and crosses southern Florida. Some radar echoes are above 10,000 feet when they are over 50 miles from the radome location so we may not see the LLC clearly unless it tracks close to Miami.

we have bahama radar.

[hurricanehunter69]

I'm so tempted to go all out aggressive on a forecast with this thing. I tend to believe what my eyes are seeing more than what I'm reading from the pro's, but I've been burned enough times to know better. So I'm trying to figure out what's holding model support back? Low level dry air...? not much of an issue. Mid level dry air...? definitely not. shear...? definitely not. In short...a near ideal environment. So what is it....? It's not spinning yet( nothing under the hood)! The models are saying these types of set ups take a quite a bit of time. So the big question is how long will this thing take to spin up? The key is how fast is it moving. In this case and most importantly, it's a (slow) mover. Even now, development probs and intensity estimates are gradually increasing. However, as soon as this thing develops that warm core engine....we should expect intensity estimates to shoot up quite aggressively. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Evil Jeremy]

HRRR barely has rainfall across mainland SFL maybe half an Inch. Nothing we don’t get every afternoon

HRRR is also initializing with the "low" inland SFL at the moment... which is not accurate.

96L is gonna be more of a "now-casting" situation than a model watching one. I'm not just saying that in regards to pre-Florida, but over the weekend as it enters the Gulf.

I would be surprised if this closes off before Florida.

[MGC]

Yup, 96L is apparently organizing at a steady clip. Going to have to watch this one closely....looks to be headed in my general direction......MGC

[NDG]

Nice sharp wave axis...no west wind.

Only Nassau is at all close to the center, so it's hard to say whether there is a west wind. Like maybe there are some west winds west of Andros. Recon pls

There are easterly moving low level clouds on the south side.. there is very likely a vort/llc somewhere around Nassau. likely in that deep curved band.

the Nassau surface obs is not working properly.. all day yesterday it was showing west to sw winds which of course was not correct. no reason to think it is doing any better today.

so all we have right now are sporadic surface obs to far away, radar, and sat.

Are you sure you are looking at the Nassau airport observation? I only see W & SW winds around midnight which is about the time that the surface trough passed through Nassau.
I only see one time of SW winds earlier in the afternoon.
Radar clearly shows that the surface vorticity is still to the W of Nassau.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/times ... aw=0&w=325

[psyclone]

HRRR barely has rainfall across mainland SFL maybe half an Inch. Nothing we don’t get every afternoon

really good convergence will be on the west coast with east and southeast winds piling up air and showers on that side of the peninsula as our formative system sails into the gulf.

[NDG]

HRRR barely has rainfall across mainland SFL maybe half an Inch. Nothing we don’t get every afternoon

Why mention the HRRR unless you are just pointing out how horrible it is most times with tropical systems

[tolakram]

I'd put the center near the north tip of Andros Island, with convection blowing up very near it and low level inflow becoming more obvious. IMO.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=6588.61328125&y=6106.662109375

[tolakram]

floater 2 now over this area

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso2_60.html

[BobHarlem]

I looked at the buoy reports and they all had winds out of the east 80 degrees in northern Bahamas, lowest surface pressure was 1011mb just off Miami. This will look like a pretty healthy circulation on radar as it tracks in near Miami and crosses southern Florida. Some radar echoes are above 10,000 feet when they are over 50 miles from the radome location so we may not see the LLC clearly unless it tracks close to Miami.

we have bahama radar.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live/bahamas/

(there's the official bahamas one too, but that one is flaky at best)

[gatorcane]

Saved loop. Looks to be getting hit with some NW shear due to a small ULL to the north of 95l. If you look closely you can see a broad circulation the NW half which is exposed.

[Aric Dunn]

Only Nassau is at all close to the center, so it's hard to say whether there is a west wind. Like maybe there are some west winds west of Andros. Recon pls

There are easterly moving low level clouds on the south side.. there is very likely a vort/llc somewhere around Nassau. likely in that deep curved band.

the Nassau surface obs is not working properly.. all day yesterday it was showing west to sw winds which of course was not correct. no reason to think it is doing any better today.

so all we have right now are sporadic surface obs to far away, radar, and sat.

Are you sure you are looking at the Nassau airport observation? I only see W & SW winds around midnight which is about the time that the surface trough passed through Nassau.
I only see one time of SW winds earlier in the afternoon.
Radar clearly shows that the surface vorticity is still to the W of Nassau.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/times ... aw=0&w=325

yeah the airport. I have MADIS on which updates every 5 minutes.

but even if you look at yesterday around noon and go through about midnight. wsw,S, SW, SSW ... and all the flip flopping while all other stations were steady E, ENE..

maybe a tree grew next the anemometer lol

[Aric Dunn]

I looked at the buoy reports and they all had winds out of the east 80 degrees in northern Bahamas, lowest surface pressure was 1011mb just off Miami. This will look like a pretty healthy circulation on radar as it tracks in near Miami and crosses southern Florida. Some radar echoes are above 10,000 feet when they are over 50 miles from the radome location so we may not see the LLC clearly unless it tracks close to Miami.

we have bahama radar.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live/bahamas/

(there's the official bahamas one too, but that one is flaky at best)

yeah the main site sucks.

I use this becasue you can change to different color tables and it is a mosaic.

https://www.rainviewer.com/map.html?loc ... &sm=0&sn=0" width="100%" frameborder="0" style="border:0;height:50vh;" allowfullscreen></iframe>

....

the one you noted is good because you can do long loops.

[Evil Jeremy]

Saved loop. Looks to be getting hit with some NW shear due to a small ULL to the north of 95l. If you look closely you can see a broad circulation the NW half which is exposed.

https://i.postimg.cc/T382jxHm/2-ABC226- ... -F8-B6.gif

If 96L had a full 24 hours before reaching Florida, instead of about another 12, we would be having a very different conversation about potential impacts. It’s putting itself together exactly like what I would expect a wave in the Bahamas would in September.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like we'll get a nice rain event here in south Florida, been busy doing interviews for a grad assignment. Will be interesting see on how a potentially stronger 96L could impact the downstream weather pattern.