ATL: SALLY - Models

[DestinHurricane]

With the runs so far I expect the TVCN to shift slightly east

Not with the HWRF shifting slightly south & westward and the GFS still making landfall over lower SE LA.

Again, the gfs skewed the TVCN consensus to the south. Every model is now Mississisppi to NW Florida

I think we are kind of splitting hairs at this point anyway.

SELA to extreme NW FL. NW FL is a very fringe solution though, HMON often has right bias.

[Steve]

Hwrf is still a hair south of Hancock County at 87. Could be making a run for the Hancock Co/St. Tammany Parish line. Maybe it could still hit St Bernard but idk yet

[Ivanhater]

Not with the HWRF shifting slightly south & westward and the GFS still making landfall over lower SE LA.

Again, the gfs skewed the TVCN consensus to the south. Every model is now Mississisppi to NW Florida

I think we are kind of splitting hairs at this point anyway.

SELA to extreme NW FL. NW FL is a very fringe solution though, HMON often has right bias.

Right, and at this point we are starting to split hairs. With this trajectory, the impacts will be high with the scrape along the coast

[Steve]

HWRF looks to hit around Lake Borgne so could hit eastern Orleans Parish which would be a really bad track with a stronger system.

Edit slight loop back toward Bay St Louis.

[DestinHurricane]

Again, the gfs skewed the TVCN consensus to the south. Every model is now Mississisppi to NW Florida

I think we are kind of splitting hairs at this point anyway.

SELA to extreme NW FL. NW FL is a very fringe solution though, HMON often has right bias.

Right, and at this point we are starting to split hairs. With this trajectory, the impacts will be high with the scrape along the coast

A scrape along the coast like HWRF has was like 100 miles offshore. High impacts for MS and west AL maybe but not the whole coast.

[NDG]

With the runs so far I expect the TVCN to shift slightly east

Not with the HWRF shifting slightly south & westward and the GFS still making landfall over lower SE LA.

Again, the gfs skewed the TVCN consensus to the south. Every model is now Mississisppi to NW Florida

I think we are kind of splitting hairs at this point anyway.

Again, GFS has it making landfall in SE LA first so I doubt the TVCN will shift eastward even after it drifts it towards the LA/MS line area.

[NDG]

One more time, the HWRF continues its trend towards the west, towards the TVCN consensus model and official track.

[Steve]

Euro seems faster than other models getting 19 to the LA Coast. If it’s right, I’m on vacation until Wednesday anyway.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1200&fh=72

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro once again coming in stronger to SE LA. It is playing catch up

[Steve]

Euro also stops it pretty quick for as fast as it appeared to be moving in the first 72 hours. That would mean a lot of rainfall for MS/AL/FL but maybe it’s just correcting speed and will be more clear at 12z. Maybe not.

[NDG]

00Z Euro once again coming in stronger to SE LA. It is playing catch up

A good shift to the S & W by the Euro, it is also seeing the stronger ridging to the north that the GFS sees building to the north after the trough lifts.

[Steve]

I wonder what EC does for 120.

[Ivanhater]

Euro also stops it pretty quick for as fast as it appeared to be moving in the first 72 hours. That would mean a lot of rainfall for MS/AL/FL but maybe it’s just correcting speed and will be more clear at 12z. Maybe not.

Yeah. Certainly a trend of this slowing along the northern gulf coast which would heighten the impacts

[Steve]

Kicks it slightly north but still in SE LA in Washington Parish. That means it basically moves it from the Mouth of the MS toward Bogalusa and Franklinton in 2 days. Got to be flooding for 150 miles east of here/Mobile if EC is right.

[Ivanhater]

I wonder what EC does for 120.

Looks like it rides north along the Miss border as the ridge erodes

[AtlanticWind]

00Z Euro once again coming in stronger to SE LA. It is playing catch up

Again shows the limitations of models in tropical forecasting,as the Euro just 24 hours ago showed
nothing from this system.

Thats why its a good idea to look at all the ensembles and observed conditions as
things can really evolve differently even in the short term.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Ukmet stalls and brings in around FL AL border. Big shift east




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[SoupBone]

00Z Ukmet stalls and brings in around FL AL border. Big shift east


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200912/730194ddd92350a0746201b54459c689.jpg

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Which is one of the globals factored into TVCN right?

[Ivanhater]

06Z early guidance. TVCN and most models showing a sharp east turn after landfall

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[tailgater]

06Z early guidance. TVCN and most models showing a sharp east turn after landfallhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200912/c154590383e31a97ec112ab5d179b761.jpg

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That’s something you don’t see everyday stalling then an sharp East turn.