ATL: BETA - Models
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
HWRF chases its tail in circles for days before making landfall in extreme southern Texas. Its actually the weaker of the solutions so far.
CMC fakes towards texas and then busts a UTurn and heads for Florida.
CMC fakes towards texas and then busts a UTurn and heads for Florida.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
00z ICON whacks the entire northern gulf coast. No spot left untouched
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:HWRF chases its tail in circles for days before making landfall in extreme southern Texas. Its actually the weaker of the solutions so far.
CMC fakes towards texas and then busts a UTurn and heads for Florida.
what site are you using to see the latest models or are you looking at earlier model runs?
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- ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63
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B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63
Bold mine.
Wow.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63
Bold mine.
Wow.
the track and intensity on this is scary if that verified.
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Yikes @ the 00z UKMET, that could put entire northern Gulf coast and west coast of Florida in danger. This season has just been unreal for the Gulf, and we could looking at one of the wildest track in decades here.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63
What model is this?
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- Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Fancy1001 wrote:ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63
What model is this?
UK Met Office model.
The full output can be found here: https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- Extratropical94
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Anybody up for a game of ping pong between S Texas and the Yucatan?
16 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Extratropical94 wrote:Fancy1001 wrote:ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 94.8W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2020 0 21.8N 94.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 12 22.2N 94.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 19.09.2020 24 23.4N 93.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 19.09.2020 36 25.0N 92.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2020 48 25.1N 92.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.09.2020 60 25.3N 93.0W 1001 36
0000UTC 21.09.2020 72 25.4N 93.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.09.2020 84 25.7N 94.2W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2020 96 26.1N 94.9W 994 45
1200UTC 22.09.2020 108 26.7N 95.4W 988 52
0000UTC 23.09.2020 120 26.9N 95.9W 979 60
1200UTC 23.09.2020 132 27.0N 95.4W 968 61
0000UTC 24.09.2020 144 27.2N 94.3W 959 63
What model is this?
UK Met Office model.
The full output can be found here: https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt
Thank you.
1 likes
- HurryKane
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Extratropical94 wrote:Anybody up for a game of ping pong between S Texas and the Yucatan?
https://i.imgur.com/CCFubKT.gif
I think this is the part where we all just say go home, 2020, you’re drunk and you soiled your britches.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
Extratropical94 wrote:Anybody up for a game of ping pong between S Texas and the Yucatan?
https://i.imgur.com/CCFubKT.gif
Lol....crazy man
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
That HWRF forecast, if it happens, could be a major flooding event. It just gets stuck there in Texas. I am not sure I buy that, I do think a trof will come pick this up but when?
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- Rgv20
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
6zECMWF stalls TD 22 Over Brownsville for about a day than drifts east than north to end the run at 90hrs. Would be a major flooding event for coastal counties of deep south texas if it were to verified.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
BigB0882 wrote:That HWRF forecast, if it happens, could be a major flooding event. It just gets stuck there in Texas. I am not sure I buy that, I do think a trof will come pick this up but when?
I agree, seems like all the models get it to the mid Texas Coast then back off shore, after that it seems like throwing a dart anywhere along the gulf.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Models
This thread is awfully quiet. I guess it's because the models are all over the place.
06Z GFS continues to show it crawling up the Texas coast then going over Houston as a sloppy mess. Different than Harvey in that it at least moves out pretty quick.
06Z GFS continues to show it crawling up the Texas coast then going over Houston as a sloppy mess. Different than Harvey in that it at least moves out pretty quick.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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