ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I think the HWRF and HMON have the idea. Stronger = farther east, weaker = farther west, but I think a major hurricane is not out of the question.

[cajungal]

First cone. Peak forecast at 85 kts

https://i.imgur.com/ma8hhsU.png

That NE hook would be bad for Alabama/Pensacola who still have debris and clean up from Sally.

Mississippi too

Yes, didn’t mean to leave MS out. Just need this season to be over.

[psyclone]

Houston has a higher chance of TS winds than Tampa on track one...in October nonetheless. lock it in...

[CrazyC83]

Saturday is October 10. We've already had one storm hit on a big storms anniversary in the same place at nearly the same intensity (Ivan/Sally). Let's hope we don't have another.

It would take a stronger trough, or weaker ridge, but since it's October climatology would favor such.

[wxman57]

I don't buy the Cat 2 near landfall at all. I think it will be a weakening TS as it nears LA. Similar to Marco, but could actually be a TS vs. Marco. Shear and dry air as it approaches the coast. Center may be displaced SW of the convection.

No offense but you also downplayed sally

We'll just have to wait and see if recon can find any hurricane-force winds as it nears the Gulf coast next Friday. I'm betting that they won't.

[PTPatrick]

So, since when does NhC issue cones for stuff that’s not a TD yet? Never seen that before? Is it something they only do when it’s close to land and model consensus is strong as it is now and watches need to go up?

[ClarCari]

So, since when does NhC issue cones for stuff that’s not a TD yet? Never seen that before? Is it something they only do when it’s close to land and model consensus is strong as it is now and watches need to go up?

They do it for Invests that have an almost guaranteed chance of development and likely tropical storm force winds. Even if there’s not yet a center for a cyclone it’s a responsibility for the NHC to allow necessary warnings.

[ElectricStorm]

So, since when does NhC issue cones for stuff that’s not a TD yet? Never seen that before? Is it something they only do when it’s close to land and model consensus is strong as it is now and watches need to go up?

They started it in 2017. And yes I do think they only do these when they are close to impacting land areas.

[edu2703]

So, since when does NhC issue cones for stuff that’s not a TD yet? Never seen that before? Is it something they only do when it’s close to land and model consensus is strong as it is now and watches need to go up?

NHC issues PTC advisories when a disturbance is threating any land and foreacast to develop into a TS by the time it reaches there.

[boca]

The track of future Delta be affected by Gamma in any way.

[us89]

So, since when does NhC issue cones for stuff that’s not a TD yet? Never seen that before? Is it something they only do when it’s close to land and model consensus is strong as it is now and watches need to go up?

The PTC designation was introduced in 2017 for storms that require tropical storm watches or warnings, but do not yet meet the criteria for a tropical cyclone. Key reason for it was that there is no technical capability to issue tropical weather alerts if there is no officially designated system.

[PTrackerLA]

Was not expecting that at all. Pretty bizarre to be in the 5 day cone of a cat 2 with a current dewpoint of 53 here. Could be similar to Nate 2017 IMO.

[aspen]

This is the part of the forecast discussion that concerns me the most for the short term:

“The disturbance is located over warm waters and in a moist environment, but there is some modest northeasterly shear over the system. The global models indicate that the shear will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment is expected to be quite favorable for both the development of a tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.”

So shear might only be an issue for another ~12 hours, and after that, PTC26/Delta will be in an extremely favorable environment with another 48-52 hours until landfall in SW Cuba. That’s plenty of time for it to undergo RI like Gamma, and that is very concerning for everyone in Delta’s path.

[ElectricStorm]

This is the part of the forecast discussion that concerns me the most for the short term:

“The disturbance is located over warm waters and in a moist environment, but there is some modest northeasterly shear over the system. The global models indicate that the shear will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment is expected to be quite favorable for both the development of a tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.”

So shear might only be an issue for another ~12 hours, and after that, PTC26/Delta will be in an extremely favorable environment with another 48-52 hours until landfall in SW Cuba. That’s plenty of time for it to undergo RI like Gamma, and that is very concerning for everyone in Delta’s path.

They also mention they are on the low side of the intensity guidance. And since they're already forecasting a Cat 2, that's also concerning.

[underthwx]

Obviously, but seeing the same areas targeted multiple times in a given season can be stressful, especially this year with COVID.

That in itself isn't wrong, but when you say you would rather it hit "me" than it hit someone else and you start playing with fire. You can hope for the best for someone else while also not say you would rather your location take to bullet as well.

Weenies are a special breed They all say they don't want the storms to hit their backyard buy really, they do.

True that...

[EquusStorm]

The rush to downcast a storm officially conservatively expected to reach category two intensity by the NHC under favorable conditions in a favorable MJO phase is pretty alarming. Pretty sure if future Delta was going to be short lived the official forecast would indicate that. I remember many October Gulf hits in my short life and many western Caribbean monsters... in a season with genesis parameters this favorable, it seems dangerous to have the public believe there isn't much of a threat. Cool water temps off the coast will certainly prevent a storm intensifying fast at landfall, but Opal and many other significant hits were rapidly weakening as they came ashore. Only question becomes dry continental air, and I think Gamma's massive moisture feed probably puts a dent in that

[Nimbus]

This is the part of the forecast discussion that concerns me the most for the short term:

“The disturbance is located over warm waters and in a moist environment, but there is some modest northeasterly shear over the system. The global models indicate that the shear will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment is expected to be quite favorable for both the development of a tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.”

So shear might only be an issue for another ~12 hours, and after that, PTC26/Delta will be in an extremely favorable environment with another 48-52 hours until landfall in SW Cuba. That’s plenty of time for it to undergo RI like Gamma, and that is very concerning for everyone in Delta’s path.

They also mention they are on the low side of the intensity guidance. And since they're already forecasting a Cat 2, that's also concerning.

Tropical airmass will have returned by late next week with flow from the ~south according to a blend of the models. I'm sure the NHC is feeling as frustrated as we are with the guidance.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

How strong will 26 be?
A TD
B TS
C 1
D 2
E 3

[TallyTracker]

Keep in mind that the moisture plume is covering the entire eastern Gulf now. I was hiking yesterday here in Tallahassee. The air temp was in the 60s but the oppressive humidity has already returned. I don’t foresee nearly as much dry air issues as Gamma is dealing with.

The water at Phillip’s Inlet last week has cooled majorly as well when I took a dip. Will be an interesting dynamic as future Delta approaches. If Delta becomes quite strong prior to reaching the cool waters, I see no reason why a weakening Cat 2/3 landfall would be out of the question. I for one am gonna grab a few items tomorrow to make sure I’m ready in case that stronger trough Crazy mentioned comes to fruition and sends Delta toward the FL Panhandle.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think that itll be between Cat 1-2 storm.