WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

Not surprised by this MW appearance. Goni is doing the same thing 12W did, so it really isn't a shock that the MW presentation is now similar too.

https://i.imgur.com/iAz8qAF.jpg

I just looked at 12W's appearance but i think it was way too disorganized for comparison?

...unless you meant 21W lol

JTWC had stopped tracking it at that point, but it lit off some sustained convection and developed some decent structure before succumbing to the mid-latitudes.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2853842#p2853842
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2854259#p2854259

Oh I see then. So it managed to develop a decent core in the end.

[1900hurricane]

As Goni develops a banding eye, now would be a good time for JMA to move the floater off what is left of Molave in SE Asia.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF 12Z 949 mb peak

[Hayabusa]

HWRF 12Z 926 mb peak, UKMET now the only sole more south outlier

[Hayabusa]

18Z 935 mb

[ElectricStorm]

I've got a bad feeling about this one. Those are some low pressures on pretty much all the models

[1900hurricane]

AMSU is a fan.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM 22W
Wednesday 28oct20 Time: 2208 UTC
Latitude: 16.60 Longitude: 136.81
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 21 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 987 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 70 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -11.8 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.60
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.02
RMW: 18 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1009
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 10 Day: 28 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[Iceresistance]

Models are aggressive with this storm.
JTWC Warning #4


A tight ball of convection earlier

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 290029

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI)

B. 29/0000Z

C. 16.50N

D. 136.58E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1919Z 16.63N 137.45E SSMS
28/1928Z 16.62N 137.45E SSMS


MARTIN

[ManilaTC]

This MW pass may lay credence...

[Iceresistance]

I've got a bad feeling about this one. Those are some low pressures on pretty much all the models

That is what Force 13 also said
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5KQ4JfWax8

[dexterlabio]

18Z 935 mb
https://i.imgur.com/1NaWsX9.png

Again, another newbie question (lol), I thought the ECMWF only has model runs every 00z and 12z?

[Hayabusa]

18Z 935 mb
https://i.imgur.com/1NaWsX9.png

Again, another newbie question (lol), I thought the ECMWF only has model runs every 00z and 12z?

ECMWF has been testing the public release of 06Z and 18Z (you have to pay for it if you want exclusive access) since the start of September, during Haishen, here's the thread when I first broke the news.

Tropical Cyclone tracks from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles : Test Products

Tropical Cyclone tracks from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles : Test Products
Created by Marta Gutierrez, last modified by Anna Ghelli on Sep 03, 2020
ECMWF Council at its 96th session in June 2020, agreed to make available Tropical Cyclone tracks (TC tracks) from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles as WMO essential products.

While ECMWF is evaluating the impact of these tracks on the corresponding cycles, test data has been made available for download.

[euro6208]

45 knots likely too low unfortunately when you have an eye on both microwave and satellite, it's a typhoon.

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 290118

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI)

B. 29/0001Z

C. 16.58N

D. 136.68E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT. RE-ANALYSIS DUE TO
COMPACT SYSTEM NOT ACCURATELY REFLECTING PREVIOUS FT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/1919Z 16.63N 137.45E SSMS
28/1928Z 16.62N 137.45E SSMS


MARTIN

[euro6208]

AMSU is a fan.

70 knots seems reasonable at the moment.

[ElectricStorm]

I've got a bad feeling about this one. Those are some low pressures on pretty much all the models

That is what Force 13 also said
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5KQ4JfWax8

I don't really watch Force 13 but I've heard that they are not the most reliable source...

[ElectricStorm]

I hope this doesn't become another storm where JTWC lags behind the whole time...

[Hayabusa]

18Z 935 mb
https://i.imgur.com/1NaWsX9.png

Again, another newbie question (lol), I thought the ECMWF only has model runs every 00z and 12z?

ECMWF has been testing the public release of 06Z and 18Z (you have to pay for it if you want exclusive access) since the start of September, during Haishen, here's the thread when I first broke the news.

Tropical Cyclone tracks from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles : Test Products

Tropical Cyclone tracks from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles : Test Products
Created by Marta Gutierrez, last modified by Anna Ghelli on Sep 03, 2020
ECMWF Council at its 96th session in June 2020, agreed to make available Tropical Cyclone tracks (TC tracks) from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles as WMO essential products.

While ECMWF is evaluating the impact of these tracks on the corresponding cycles, test data has been made available for download.

To avoid confusion 06Z/18Z cycles have been already available since 2018 but you need $$$ to access it, only since September 2020 they started giving it for 'free'.