ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Is coming together pretty quickly. Models playing catch-up as usual. Might see a center reformation further SE of where NHC has it.

https://i.postimg.cc/HLtRSLXC/goes16-ir-95-L-202010231555.gif

Well looking at radar. that have happened. just south of grand cayman now.

[Blown Away]

Hmm, lacks juice and there's a heck of a lot of shear to its north...

We'll see...

Oct/Nov it’s all about how these storms interact with the cold fronts/shear. So hard to predict, usually it keeps systems from getting beyond TS strength once they get pushed NE by the fronts. Every so often the perfect scenario happens and we get a Michael, Wilma, etc.

[Blown Away]

Is coming together pretty quickly. Models playing catch-up as usual. Might see a center reformation further SE of where NHC has it.

https://i.postimg.cc/HLtRSLXC/goes16-ir-95-L-202010231555.gif

Well looking at radar. that have happened. just south of grand cayman now.

Your position would be a few degrees ESE of the NHC 2pm X.

[AutoPenalti]

the 150mile radar range. 2 hours saved. a little clearer... center is very quickly consolidating and organizing with that convection right around Grand cayman.

https://i.ibb.co/XJCFPVw/ezgif-com-resize-11.gif

You can see how they almost overlap with each other, looks the MLC and LLC.

[Evil Jeremy]

Time to start thinking about a PTC designation, as it pertains to Cuba. I could see NHC pulling that trigger at 5 (despite not hinting at it in the 2pm TWO) if this rate of organization continues for another couple hours.

[northjaxpro]

Nice convective blow-up just southeast of the initial LLC position estimate from the NHC.

[Aric Dunn]

7 hour full range loop.

[northjaxpro]

Time to start thinking about a PTC designation, as it pertains to Cuba. I could see NHC pulling that trigger at 5 (despite not hinting at it in the 2pm TWO) if this rate of organization continues for another couple hours.

I thought that this may happen later tonight or early Saturday. But, seeing how 95L is pulling together at a decent clip, I must say Jeremy it is plausible to reason that NHC could raise a PTC . We will see. I would still lean toward late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Recon will be out there on their mission tomorrow as well.

[gatorcane]

Visible loop, nice upper anticyclone outflow looking at the high cirrus on the periphery of the broad low and building convection just west of Grand Cayman:

[SouthFLTropics]

Considering how close to Grand Cayman that this is coming together, I would guess we could get some surface observations from the island.

[ClarCari]

Time to start thinking about a PTC designation, as it pertains to Cuba. I could see NHC pulling that trigger at 5 (despite not hinting at it in the 2pm TWO) if this rate of organization continues for another couple hours.

I thought that this may happen later tonight or early Saturday. But, seeing how 95L is pulling together at a decent clip, I must say Jeremy it is plausible to reason that NHC could raise a PTC . We will see. I would still lean toward late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Recon will be out there on their mission tomorrow as well.

So do they issue PTC if they have a potential to be a TD close to land, or only if there are TS force winds with a system?
Theres no TS force winds found yettt but since there’s no such thing as TD warnings I wasn’t sure if they pull PTC on potential depressions.

[SFLcane]

[SouthFLTropics]

If that blob of convection to the Southeast decides to wrap in, this thing could really take off even faster than it already is. I would guess that with it wrapping in we would also possibly see a center reformation or two.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, convection is definitely building around the LLC now. This is not a good sign folks. We just may be seeing the beginnings of a increasingly organizing cyclone in progress!

[AutoPenalti]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/XNwZJSfy/B070-D2-FA-A04-D-45-CA-A8-D8-C021-E13359-C0.gif

Man, every time you use the emoji, it does the opposite of

[gatorcane]

Is it safe to assume that the quicker this organizes, the more north it could be drawn before the shortwave exits and ridge builds back?

That is what I think. There is a weakness that is expected to develop over Florida this weekend before a ridge tries to build back in early next week.

[SFLcane]

95L might provide me with a nice gift for my 43 bday on the 28th.

[psyclone]

Looks like a formative TC. Those 70% development odds are aging quickly.

[northjaxpro]

Keep in mind that 95L is organizing apparently much quicker than anticipated. There is a good possibility NHC may have to initiate watches /warnings quickly. PTC may not happen anyway.

[Senobia]

The cold front moving down across Texas next week should keep whatever this is well to our east.
I hope.