ATL: IOTA - Models

[SFLcane]

[Loveweather12]

https://i.imgur.com/DYQCU32.png

https://i.imgur.com/RHsPC1t.png

Starting to turn North it seems. Could just be my eyes though

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the HWRF slows it to a crawl at 85 west. May get hung up and stuck there until the next trough comes into the picture.

[jlauderdal]

Well that’s interesting 12z HWRF is moving NW at the end of its run.

https://i.imgur.com/JJNyhqe.gif

its going to the pacific, its burying itself in CA

meanwhile, kappa arrives on the scene to the east

we have .7 in the bucket today and guess what, the street has standing water because even with as little as .7 the ground is saturated and no place to go

[Jr0d]

Very tricky forecast here in terms of track and it will be dependent multiple things. The first thing that will be important is the strength of the system. If the HMON and HWRF are right the system will feel more of the upper level flow. Unfortunately the forecast for the upper level flow itself is quite complicated. Teleconnections are showing the NAO begin to trend negative and the PNA to trend positives. This favors an east coast trough, especially the closer to winter we get. Here's where things get tricky, where that trough sets up will be critical in deciding where this storm goes, assuming we have a deep storm that is. If the GFS is right and the trough is further off the east coast, then the storm will be under the influences of the western ridge and a deeper storm will dive even farther southwestward. However, if the Canadian is right and the trough is closer to the east coast or even centered over it, then the storm will either be caught in no man's land or will be under the influence of the eastern ridge, which would put Cuba and Florida under threat. However, since the Canadian has a weak storm we don't get to see this played out on the 12z Run. I think the HWRF and HMON are showing something in the middle right now and it's likely that the CMC is as well in terms of the 500 pattern. One would expect the Euro to be even more west with this pattern as it likes to amplify troughs more than the CMC and way more than the GFS, which is know for being to progressive with these patterns.

That said, I do think this is a storm that Jamaica and the Yucatan really need to pay attention to as well as Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

There maybe a chance, though slim right now, this could impact Cuba and Florida?

The past week or so including today it looked like this was CA bound with no chance of a trough pulling it north. With todays runs a little further north it might be something Florida will have to watch despite essentially no ensembles going that way, and only 1 or 2 taking it to the GoM.

Obviously Yucatan to Nicaragua are at high risk of a hurricane next week, with Jamaica possibly getting storm conditions this weekend, especially if it keeps trending north.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/DYQCU32.png

https://i.imgur.com/RHsPC1t.png

A track like that with an Eta-like peak would lead to Iota easily generating at least 15-20 ACE.

[stormchazer]

Well that’s interesting 12z HWRF is moving NW at the end of its run.

https://i.imgur.com/JJNyhqe.gif

its going to the pacific, its burying itself in CA

meanwhile, kappa arrives on the scene to the east

we have .7 in the bucket today and guess what, the street has standing water because even with as little as .7 the ground is saturated and no place to go

Got 3” in last 24. If we have another threat I build an ark.

[Astromanía]

Another treat for yucatan I hate you 2020

[SFLcane]

[FireRat]

This developing storm really is giving me some serious vibes, wow! What a November that we are having folks, this is probably like 2005's July, a freak anomaly. Better believe this thing could do as the models show, and bomb out into a major hurricane.

The one after, possible Kappa, is also something quite interesting, if I'm not mistaken this would be the system some of the models were showing threatening Cuba and Florida around 11/25.
If 98L slows down in the NW Caribbean around 11/18, I can see this trying to pull an Eta into Late November also, man I hope people in Central America are preparing for the floods that may be about to come... and you guys in FL/ Cuba may not be done just yet. Can't believe my eyes, the 30th named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season is about to be born, this is a true taste of the WPAC here in this side of the world, complete with October and November monsters!

[supercane4867]

12z euro is probably too south with center formation. In the case of a strong ridge I think a Belize landfall is more probable than northern Nicaragua.

[xironman]

That is really close to having a break in the ridge to allow a path north

[chris_fit]

HMON/HWRF - What are you doing

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: a hair north of 0Z/6Z but similar to 18Z: keep in mind left bias of EPS mean

[aspen]

HMON/HWRF - What are you doing

https://i.imgur.com/e1sFAq4.png

They’re being nice to Nicaragua and Honduras. While Iota would get stronger in that track, it would be a best-case scenario for many of the regions devastated by Eta.

[Iceresistance]

HWRF has this thing as a beast near Jamaica & heading towards the Gulf of Mexico (AGAIN!)

[Iceresistance]

GFS has this at 80 knots at landfall



CMC has this as a depression

(Highest winds here)

[Iceresistance]

HWRF-P

(Note another system near Puerto Rico)

[Iceresistance]

HMON/HWRF - What are you doing

https://i.imgur.com/e1sFAq4.png

Also note CLP5 doing the same thing, but farther north

[Iceresistance]

HMON is very aggressive