ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

NWS/NHC calling for storm surge on approach to landfall to possibly reach 5-8 feet near the mouth of the Pearl River. They are forecasting 2-4 feet at Lake Pontchartrain.

[xironman]

think there will be a big blow up just before sun set

We may have a winner.

[tiger_deF]

Rotating hot towers have popped up roughly around what appears to be the LLC, some pinks showing up for the first time since the Yucatan. Really wish we had some recon in there right now. Depending on how decoupled Zeta is I could see it being anywhere from a lower end tropical storm to at the edge of hurricane strength right now.

[Nimbus]

Rotating hot towers have popped up roughly around what appears to be the LLC, some pinks showing up for the first time since the Yucatan. Really wish we had some recon in there right now. Depending on how decoupled Zeta is I could see it being anywhere from a lower end tropical storm to at the edge of hurricane strength right now.

This time of day seems to be near Dmax for Zeta, but I was hoping it might take a little longer with the dry air.
Stronger storm would hold off the initial light shear better and some of the models have this strengthening almost all the way till landfall.

[bella_may]

When’s the next recon?

[northjaxpro]

When’s the next recon?

Around 1:30 tomorrow afternoon (scheduled)

There may be one near 6Z tomorrow morning planned as well if I am not mistaken.

[EquusStorm]

This should be obvious but I'm not sure, so please excuse a really stupid question that I need answered for my preps/plan:
Sally hit to my east and strong wind was blowing from the north. This one will hit to the west; from what direction will Zeta's winds blow here (if they do)? From the south?

Assuming landfall in LA/W MS, southeast then south for MS/AL/west Panhandle

[TheStormExpert]

Probably be looking at a major right now if it wasn’t for the Yucatán.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1321130016512626689

[facemane]

This should be obvious but I'm not sure, so please excuse a really stupid question that I need answered for my preps/plan:
Sally hit to my east and strong wind was blowing from the north. This one will hit to the west; from what direction will Zeta's winds blow here (if they do)? From the south?

Yes, you'll be on the bad side and get southerly winds. If you are near the coast or in a low lying area, storm surge can also be a danger. The northerly winds you experienced in Sally pushed the water out.

[bella_may]

When’s the next recon?

Around 1:30 tomorrow afternoon (scheduled)

Really? How will they know if it has strengthened then? Radar?

[northjaxpro]

When’s the next recon?

Around 1:30 tomorrow afternoon (scheduled)

Really? How will they know if it has strengthened then? Radar?

Radar and buoys. Satellite estimations are used as well.

[ClarCari]

When’s the next recon?

Around 1:30 tomorrow afternoon (scheduled)

There may be one near 6Z tomorrow morning planned as well if I am not mistaken.

Soooo are the current missions today just upper-level then?

[ATCcane]

Around 1:30 tomorrow afternoon (scheduled)

Really? How will they know if it has strengthened then? Radar?

Radar and buoys. Satellite estimations are used as well.

Looks like one preparing to depart Biloxi now. I would be shocked had there been no more recon until tomorrow afternoon.

[northjaxpro]

Really? How will they know if it has strengthened then? Radar?

Radar and buoys. Satellite estimations are used as well.

Looks like one preparing to depart Biloxi now. I would be shocked had there been no more recon until tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah, they must have just added this mission late today. They did not originally schedule this upcoming mission when they released the plan yesterday.

Great news that Recon is on the way this evening. Good! I would not have believed it either if we would have had to wait until midday tomorrow before we had any Recon out there.

[hurricanehunter69]

A big blow up of convection and a new CDO may be in progress right now.

[aspen]

The expanding hot towers kind of look like they’re trying to develop an eyewall. Just needs a hot tower in the NE quadrant.

[ATCcane]

Radar and buoys. Satellite estimations are used as well.

Looks like one preparing to depart Biloxi now. I would be shocked had there been no more recon until tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah, they must have just added this mission late today. They did not originally schedule this upcoming mission when they released the plan yesterday.

Great news that Recon is on the way this evening. Good! I would not have believed it either if we would have had to wait until midday tomorrow before we had any Recon out there.

It was on the POD...


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

[northjaxpro]

Looks like one preparing to depart Biloxi now. I would be shocked had there been no more recon until tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah, they must have just added this mission late today. They did not originally schedule this upcoming mission when they released the plan yesterday.

Great news that Recon is on the way this evening. Good! I would not have believed it either if we would have had to wait until midday tomorrow before we had any Recon out there.

It was on the POD...


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml

Ahh, OK.. Thanks ATC Cane. I erred and saw the one from the previous day.

[SootyTern]

Understood. But wasn't it you who had that fairly rough night with Delta a few weeks ago? (Think you said you were in Tangipahoa or Livingston?) This should be much more intense than that IMHO.

YEH! Delta's winds were surprising! I still cant wrap my head around why they seemed so much more damaging than TS force winds Ive experienced before?

When we got home from Delta, that same large sick lightening struck tree had dropped a limb about 15 ft long, and the width of a dinner plate onto our front porch and about 5 inches from the glass storm door! It took down a big section of porch railing.

I think the difference was the level of sustained winds. Even if they're only sustained in the mid 30's (say below TS strength), that's already blowing pretty good. With some 40's or 50's gusts on top of that, it can get howling. Amp that up by 10-15mph, and that's what's likely to happen in SELA (would guess there will be some sustained in the 40's to 50's - at least at the coast) and probably some gusts in to the 60's and 70's. Northshore probably gets a fairly similar hit since this will be moving super fast at landfall and accelerating if the track takes it across Lake Pontchartrain instead of east of there.

And take seriously a 15 to 20 MPH forecast increase in general winds at your location compared to Delta. In 2005 the budding Katrina went over us with sustained high-end TS force winds and Cat 1 gusts. 2 months later Wilma went by in the opposite direction with sustained Cat 1 gusting to Cat 2 winds. The 20ish MPH difference in windspeed translated to a much greater force applied to everything including trees, roofs, etc. It's not just a 'little bit' windier.

[us89]

TS watches have been issued well inland, through central Alabama all the way up to the northern border of Georgia.

Seems like a good call. Although sustained winds will more likely than not remain below TS force, some of the model runs are calling for gusts upwards of 50 or even 60 mph, which given our wet soils will be more than enough to bring down trees and cause some power outages.