ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

outside the convection...

sustained 63 mph gusting to 73/

[NDG]

[aspen]

Josh will not regret deciding to go chase Hannah.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1286839730382999563

If this intensifies right through landfall like Harvey and Michael, Josh’s measurements could be crucial to determining Hanna’s peak intensity.

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/rac9S1F.gif

convection looks a little less "pulsey" in the last few frames

[Do_For_Love]

993/6 knots per center dropsonde

Hanna was at 1000 mb at 11 am (EST) this morning. Been 11 hours, so she's gone down about 7 mb since then. If she strengthens at the same rate until landfall, Hanna would be at about 983 mb, assuming it occurs at about 1 PM tomorrow. I don't think she's super likely to RI or encounter major problems based on what i've seen and read, so that's my best forecast for tomorrow

Usual disclaimer...I have no idea what I'm talking about lol just listen to the NHC

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/rac9S1F.gif

I'm not a meteorologist but those blowups near the center look really ugly!!

[jasons2k]

Such a lopsided storm. I’m in the northern suburbs of Houston and I haven’t seen a drop. And to the east, storms all the way to Florida. I could really use some rain.

[MGC]

Hanna looking pretty impressive on IR Sat loop this evening. Looks to be intensifying at a steady rate. Good chance Hanna will make hurricane by landfall. Y'all stay safe in Hanna's path.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

993/6 knots per center dropsonde

Hanna was at 1000 mb at 11 am (EST) this morning. Been 11 hours, so she's gone down about 7 mb since then. If she strengthens at the same rate until landfall, Hanna would be at about 983 mb, assuming it occurs at about 1 PM tomorrow. I don't think she's super likely to RI or encounter major problems based on what i've seen and read, so that's my best forecast for tomorrow

Usual disclaimer...I have no idea what I'm talking about lol just listen to the NHC

The was the last offical..

we had buoy data.. it went from 1002 to where it is now in 5 hours..

[GrayLancer18]

993/6 knots per center dropsonde

Hanna was at 1000 mb at 11 am (EST) this morning. Been 11 hours, so she's gone down about 7 mb since then. If she strengthens at the same rate until landfall, Hanna would be at about 983 mb, assuming it occurs at about 1 PM tomorrow. I don't think she's super likely to RI or encounter major problems based on what i've seen and read, so that's my best forecast for tomorrow

Usual disclaimer...I have no idea what I'm talking about lol just listen to the NHC

Once they close circulation, they can intensify at a faster rate; I wouldn't be surprised if it gets to the 970mb range. It's got 14-15 hours left...

Sent from my SM-T860 using Tapatalk

[Highteeld]

[FLpanhandle91]

More massive hot towers firing northwest, northeast, and southeast of the centers we speak. This is its push to hurricane status.

[aspen]

Based on how lopsided the wind field is, I don’t feel comfortable calling this a hurricane despite the 70+ kt FL winds. But a 55-60 kt tropical storm? More than reasonable. At this rate, it will be a 65-75 kt hurricane for the 5am advisory.

[PTrackerLA]

Haven't seen an infrared look like this in the gulf since Michael. Won't be anything close to that but honestly a Cat 2 is on the table IMO. This could be a very significant event for Corpus Christi.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

This thing is really starting to wrap up. "Eyewall" still looks open on the west side (according to radar) but given continued organizational trends this will likely be resolved very soon. Looking extremely likely that the US will be experiencing its first taste of what life under COVID would be like with a bona-fide hurricane impacting its shores...

[NDG]

393' above the surface.

Conditions at: KEMK observed 25 July 2020 02:15 UTC
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 84%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.63 inches Hg (1003.5 mb)
Winds: from the E (100 degrees) at 60 MPH (52 knots; 27.0 m/s)
gusting to 75 MPH (65 knots; 33.8 m/s)
Visibility: 2.50 miles (4.02 km)
Ceiling: unknown
Clouds: missing
Present Weather: HZ (haze)
KEMK 250215Z AUTO 10052G65KT 2 1/2SM HZ 27/24 A2963 RMK A01

[Aric Dunn]

Eye clearing out on IR pretty quickly ..

[Aric Dunn]

393' above the surface.

Conditions at: KEMK observed 25 July 2020 02:15 UTC
Temperature: 27.0°C (81°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 84%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.63 inches Hg (1003.5 mb)
Winds: from the E (100 degrees) at 60 MPH (52 knots; 27.0 m/s)
gusting to 75 MPH (65 knots; 33.8 m/s)
Visibility: 2.50 miles (4.02 km)
Ceiling: unknown
Clouds: missing
Present Weather: HZ (haze)
KEMK 250215Z AUTO 10052G65KT 2 1/2SM HZ 27/24 A2963 RMK A01

key thing.. here is it is outside the convection..

and well the reduction equates to what like 2 mph ? lol

[NDG]

Definitely the NE quadrant is the strongest.

021430 2633N 09357W 8427 01536 0040 +184 +182 189049 050 038 006 00
021500 2634N 09359W 8417 01544 0036 +185 +183 194051 052 039 009 00
021530 2635N 09401W 8410 01544 0030 +185 +183 197053 055 040 010 00
021600 2636N 09403W 8403 01545 0023 +187 +182 198058 060 041 011 00
021630 2637N 09405W 8410 01533 0020 +179 //// 191057 061 040 016 01
021700 2639N 09407W 8402 01537 0012 +182 //// 192054 057 046 013 01
021730 2640N 09408W 8403 01528 0010 +181 //// 201054 055 048 017 01
021800 2641N 09410W 8416 01514 0004 +184 //// 203054 056 050 035 01
021830 2642N 09412W 8416 01509 9999 +177 //// 205058 062 045 051 01
021900 2643N 09414W 8385 01547 9997 +186 //// 209052 054 041 024 05
021930 2644N 09416W 8401 01523 9991 +190 //// 214053 054 035 013 01
022000 2645N 09418W 8413 01512 9993 +187 //// 213049 050 035 001 01
022030 2646N 09419W 8426 01493 9989 +189 //// 215048 049 037 003 01
022100 2647N 09421W 8417 01497 9984 +184 //// 218046 050 041 033 01
022130 2648N 09423W 8416 01493 9979 +185 //// 226040 043 042 039 01
022200 2649N 09425W 8420 01486 9973 +188 //// 236036 039 048 028 01
022230 2650N 09426W 8415 01488 9969 +192 //// 235032 033 050 012 05
022300 2651N 09428W 8415 01486 9962 +196 //// 237032 034 034 007 01
022330 2653N 09429W 8422 01476 9962 +194 //// 239030 030 021 002 01
022400 2655N 09430W 8419 01477 9955 +200 +194 236028 029 020 000 00

[aspen]

A ring of -80 C convection has almost fully encircled the center. This is very quickly developing an eyewall, and once it’s in place, it will probably bomb out. I’m now thinking a Cat 3 might not be out of the question, assuming Hanna won’t be vulnerable to dry air.