ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

993 mb on latest pass. There might have been a recalibration earlier after the first center pass.

[StAuggy]

As it relates to Laura, would a more potent Marco create a much larger weakness for her to follow? You're talking about a 48 hour difference between his landfall and hers.

I’ve been pondering this for a day now... how quick is that ridge going to fill back in... especially if like you have said Marco gets further East and is stronger. There was some evidence that it would still build back in on a couple model runs from a few days ago but I didn’t get to see them... D. Ortt mentioned this to me on twitter

[tailgater]

Its looking more likely to me that Marco will reach Hurricane strength, the Shear is from a bit more southerly direction and environment continues to moisten to the west of storm. luckily the Cape has been fairly low to this point( thanks GCANE for all the info)

[GCANE]

3500 CAPE in the core.
4500 CAPE in feed.

[GCANE]

Its looking more likely to me that Marco will reach Hurricane strength, the Shear is from a bit more southerly direction and environment continues to moisten to the west of storm. luckily the Cape has been fairly low to this point( thanks GCANE for all the info)

Your welcome Tailgater

[Blow_Hard]

As it relates to Laura, would a more potent Marco create a much larger weakness for her to follow? You're talking about a 48 hour difference between his landfall and hers.

I'm certainly no Met but from I have understood thus far, Marco is not large enough to really have much of an effect on Laura. Also, there is at least 48 hours between the two in the Central GOM so I would think that would not favor any effects also. If I were in SE Texas/SW LA I would definitely not waste any time. I'd be preparing for a significant storm and all that goes along with it.

My heart goes out to whomever this directly impacts. I can tell you that Michael forever change lives here in Panama City...

[GCANE]

Just like yesterday.
A rotating hot tower with off-the-scale intensity

[Shawee]

Just like yesterday.
A rotating hot tower with off-the-scale intensity

https://i.imgur.com/eF8T9no.jpg

Thanks for all of you insight and graphics! Do you see any residual SST disruption from Marco that could lessen the CAPE a bit when Laura comes through?

[aspen]

Recon is about to sample Marco’s strongest quadrant. This’ll be its last shot to justify an upgrade to Hurricane Marco for the 11am advisory.

[aspen]

Pressure down by ~1mbar, FL and SFMR winds of 64 kt...enough for an upgrade?

[St0rmTh0r]

Just like yesterday.
A rotating hot tower with off-the-scale intensity

https://i.imgur.com/eF8T9no.jpg

You really know your stuff GCane. What's the ceiling on this storm? Also sounds like the environment is becoming very favorable for Laura too. Thoughts?

[Extratropical94]

Pressure down by ~1mbar, FL and SFMR winds of 64 kt...enough for an upgrade?

FL and SFMR winds alone don't justify an upgrade IMO, but one dropsonde measured 64 kts at the sfc. If we get another eyewall drop with hurricane-force winds, then maybe?

[GCANE]

Just like yesterday.
A rotating hot tower with off-the-scale intensity

https://i.imgur.com/eF8T9no.jpg

Thanks for all of you insight and graphics! Do you see any residual SST disruption from Marco that could lessen the CAPE a bit when Laura comes through?

Good point!
In the NGoM maybe, definitely no problem close to the Loop Current.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297539074715201538

[GCANE]

Just like yesterday.
A rotating hot tower with off-the-scale intensity

https://i.imgur.com/eF8T9no.jpg

You really know your stuff GCane. What's the ceiling on this storm? Also sounds like the environment is becoming very favorable for Laura too. Thoughts?

Much thanks.
Laura is choking off any chance to create a poleward outflow channel. So, that is a limiting factor.
GoM always has a lot of unstable air.
I would say maybe 50/50 for a Cat 2.
Can't say what landfall would be, too early.
Need to understand the time of day and what conditions would be like over land.
I'll post when I have a better feeling.

[St0rmTh0r]

Just like yesterday.
A rotating hot tower with off-the-scale intensity

https://i.imgur.com/eF8T9no.jpg

You really know your stuff GCane. What's the ceiling on this storm? Also sounds like the environment is becoming very favorable for Laura too. Thoughts?

Much thanks.
Laura is choking off any chance to create a poleward outflow channel. So, that is a limiting factor.
GoM always has a lot of unstable air.
I would say maybe 50/50 for a Cat 2.
Can't say what landfall would be, too early.
Need to understand the time of day and what conditions would be like over land.
I'll post when I have a better feeling.

Thanks ever changing circumstances make tracking these storms so difficult. Thanks for putting in the time

[Beef Stew]

The NHC is sticking with 70mph for the 10 AM CDT advisory.

[aspen]

I was really hoping for an upgrade this advisory, just to bump up this year’s hurricane total.

[robbielyn]

i now see the nnw movement starting.

[tolakram]