ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1313566570518646786

[Stormcenter]

Wow look at that feeder band called x-Gamma
feeding into Delta. Anyway I would not bet the house
on any model track just yet. Lots and lots
of uncertainty still with Delta. IMO

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[ColdMiser123]

The flat, convection-less eastern half of the circulation is a telling sign that there is some easterly shear affecting Delta. It obviously hasn’t kept it from strengthening but I’m wondering if that has put a temporary limit on strength. Recon will tell.

GFS averaged shear is indicating around 15-20 kt of shear is impacting Delta currently, that drops to <10 kt by tonight.

This will be around the same order of shear that Delta will encounter just before it reaches Louisiana, but with cooler SSTs. So far, it is handling it relatively well.

[Stormcenter]

Excellent observation and I agree.


quote="MississippiWx"]

Dr Steve Caparotta our local Meteorologist just shared this. If one of yall could find a better image please share this is screen grab from a vid. But this is a scary model, wind field much wider

https://i.postimg.cc/4dQNJjDF/D4.png

One bit of information that seems to be going largely unnoticed is how much Delta grows in the Gulf of Mexico. I’m Afraid people are looking at its current small size and extrapolating that to US landfall when models are showing it grow rather large.[/quote]

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Excellent observation and I agree.


quote="MississippiWx"]

Dr Steve Caparotta our local Meteorologist just shared this. If one of yall could find a better image please share this is screen grab from a vid. But this is a scary model, wind field much wider

https://i.postimg.cc/4dQNJjDF/D4.png

One bit of information that seems to be going largely unnoticed is how much Delta grows in the Gulf of Mexico. I’m Afraid people are looking at its current small size and extrapolating that to US landfall when models are showing it grow rather large.

[/quote]
Thats what im afraid of as well, “oh the hurricane force winds only extend out X miles, so im good” complacency is deadly.

That being said, if anyone could answer this, what happens when a Greek alphabet storm because extremely destructive and deadly? You cant just retire the greek alphabet. Genuinely curious as to what kind of protocol would happen, if say Wilma, Rita or Katrina devastation occurred (im not saying thats going to happen)

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313568104249729027

[kevin]

Excellent observation and I agree.


quote="MississippiWx"]

Dr Steve Caparotta our local Meteorologist just shared this. If one of yall could find a better image please share this is screen grab from a vid. But this is a scary model, wind field much wider

https://i.postimg.cc/4dQNJjDF/D4.png

One bit of information that seems to be going largely unnoticed is how much Delta grows in the Gulf of Mexico. I’m Afraid people are looking at its current small size and extrapolating that to US landfall when models are showing it grow rather large.

Thats what im afraid of as well, “oh the hurricane force winds only extend out X miles, so im good” complacency is deadly.

That being said, if anyone could answer this, what happens when a Greek alphabet storm because extremely destructive and deadly? You cant just retire the greek alphabet. Genuinely curious as to what kind of protocol would happen, if say Wilma, Rita or Katrina devastation occurred (im not saying thats going to happen)

Maybe they'll decide to stop using the Greek alphabet starting next year and just have a second list of names in case we use up all names from the first list. But I have no idea and (even though they said they wouldn't retire any Greek names) tbh I think atm even the NHC doesn't know what to do now that Delta is becoming as big as it is. There are a lot more high priority things they're worrying about now (i.e. Delta's current state) than possible future retirement, but once Delta is gone I think the discussion regarding possible retirement will begin.

[aspen]

2 hours later, and Delta looks worse than before. Appears that an EWRC is coming.

I’m shocked that after all these hours, Delta has failed to clear such a tiny eye.

[MississippiWx]

Delta certainly seems to be gaining latitude the past few hours. How much or little it gains will be crucial for Cancun and Cozumel.

[GCANE]

Another view of the possible development of a secondary eyewall

[cheezyWXguy]

2 hours later, and Delta looks worse than before. Appears that an EWRC is coming.

Yep, a little bit of shear seems to be holding it in place for now. Wondering what tonight will bring.

[GCANE]

That hot-tower slamming into the eyewall event must have had something to do with possibly kicking off an EWRC.
Recon drops were showing decreasing humidity readings at 700mb in the eye.
Here's 37 GHz

[aspen]

2 hours later, and Delta looks worse than before. Appears that an EWRC is coming.

Yep, a little bit of shear seems to be holding it in place for now. Wondering what tonight will bring.

I don’t know if the ~15 kt of shear will prevent the outer eyewall from wrapping around or not, but that band is facing the shear direction, so it could be a race between intensification and an EWRC once it lessens. I read it was supposed to drop down to 10 kt or less later today, correct?

[GCANE]

Mostly likely enough time for the EWRC to finish before interacting with the Yucatan.

[cheezyWXguy]

2 hours later, and Delta looks worse than before. Appears that an EWRC is coming.

Yep, a little bit of shear seems to be holding it in place for now. Wondering what tonight will bring.

I don’t know if the ~15 kt of shear will prevent the outer eyewall from wrapping around or not, but that band is facing the shear direction, so it could be a race between intensification and an EWRC once it lessens. I read it was supposed to drop down to 10 kt or less later today, correct?

Judging by the microwave structures recently posted, it seems the inner eyewall is having the same problem. It is a good question, I’m not sure if the reduction in shear will allow the storm to intensify and then undergo the ewrc, or if it will just accelerate the ewrc allowing for strengthening afterward.

[SouthDadeFish]

As shown here, I'd argue the ERC is nearly complete already. The old 2 nmi inner core has apparently decayed. The new eye hasn't popped out yet as some remnant convection from the inner eyewall may obscure it for the next few hours. By tonight, I'd expect the new eye to emerge on geostationary imagery and intensification to continue.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1313571830867820549

[Raebie]

Excellent observation and I agree.


quote="MississippiWx"]

Dr Steve Caparotta our local Meteorologist just shared this. If one of yall could find a better image please share this is screen grab from a vid. But this is a scary model, wind field much wider

https://i.postimg.cc/4dQNJjDF/D4.png

One bit of information that seems to be going largely unnoticed is how much Delta grows in the Gulf of Mexico. I’m Afraid people are looking at its current small size and extrapolating that to US landfall when models are showing it grow rather large.

Thats what im afraid of as well, “oh the hurricane force winds only extend out X miles, so im good” complacency is deadly.

That being said, if anyone could answer this, what happens when a Greek alphabet storm because extremely destructive and deadly? You cant just retire the greek alphabet. Genuinely curious as to what kind of protocol would happen, if say Wilma, Rita or Katrina devastation occurred (im not saying thats going to happen)[/quote]

I believe they differentiate by adding the year to the end of the name.

[shiny-pebble]

Looking at microwave it looks like it actually may not be too far from completing an EWRC

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Kazmit]

Makes sense that a storm with such a tiny eyewall to begin with would complete an ERC quickly.

[kevin]

It indeed looks like the ERC could be almost over before we realized it started. I would imagine such a short ERC would have a lesser impact on any possible weakening of Delta than a regular ERC.