ATL: LAURA - Models

[toad strangler]

There are still dry air issues in the Bahamas if the GFS is right. Conditions are not ideal. Also a stronger TD #14 would impose more shear too if that happens.

One thing I find in these situations from following these storms approaching Florida for years is that if you don't have BOTH the GFS and Euro on board with a hurricane, you typically lean towards the model that is more bearish. You really need both these models showing a major hurricane to be concerned.

https://i.postimg.cc/gjYjxV7T/gfs-mid-RH-watl-14.png

I think you need another 300 years or so living in FL to have experience with a weird set up like this double barrel storm. I'm not discounting the GFS or EURO, but I sure as hell am not confident.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z CMC slightly SW of 00z and about the same strength at 84 hours.

12z HMON has begun. 12z HWRF will begin shortly.

[NDG]

There are still dry air issues in the Bahamas if the GFS is right. Conditions are not ideal. Also a stronger TD #14 would impose more shear too if that happens.

One thing I find in these situations from following these storms approaching Florida for years is that if you don't have BOTH the GFS and Euro on board with a hurricane, you typically lean towards the model that is more bearish. You really need both these models showing a hurricane to be concerned.

https://i.postimg.cc/gjYjxV7T/gfs-mid-RH-watl-14.png

TD 14's outflow will not be anywhere close to TD 14 due to the stacked ridging to the north of TD 13, even if TD 14 was to be stronger than TD 13.

[NDG]

12z CMC stronger and a little more to the left compared to previous 0z run.

[ConvergenceZone]

There are still dry air issues in the Bahamas if the GFS is right. Conditions are not ideal. Also a stronger TD #14 would impose more shear too if that happens.

One thing I find in these situations from following these storms approaching Florida for years is that if you don't have BOTH the GFS and Euro on board with a hurricane, you typically lean towards the model that is more bearish. You really need both these models showing a hurricane to be concerned.

https://i.postimg.cc/gjYjxV7T/gfs-mid-RH-watl-14.png

I do think this will just be a high end tropical storm when it makes landfall though. It’s just forecast to move way to fast. Plus the size . And you are already seeing that it’s taking forever to get to TD status. Intensity will probably speed up as it gets to warm waters. But it’s going to run out of time too quickly

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC

[Nuno]

Most models still show this storm trucking WNW towards FL or through the Keys. What are the outlier ensembles that start to curve this over FL or east of it showing that would cause this?

I don't see any ensemble models recurving east of FL, unless you are talking about some hurricane models like the usual right biased HWRF on its long range.

Sorry, I meant specifically GFS ensembles.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS

[ScottNAtlanta]

What I dont understand about the Euro is if you look at the synoptic setup for 72-96 hrs it is almost textbook for a strengthening system. The High Pressure system to the north is strengthening on top of the system according to the Euro. What it is saying about the system conflicts with the pattern it is showing

[DestinHurricane]

What I dont understand about the Euro is if you look at the synoptic setup for 72-96 hrs it is almost textbook for a strengthening system. The High Pressure system to the north is strengthening on top of the system according to the Euro. What it is saying about the system conflicts with the pattern it is showing

I think something is wrong with it. Technicians should take a look.

[NDG]

Weird how it keeps TD 14 in the SW GOM.

[Steve]

deleted

[NDG]

Most models still show this storm trucking WNW towards FL or through the Keys. What are the outlier ensembles that start to curve this over FL or east of it showing that would cause this?

I don't see any ensemble models recurving east of FL, unless you are talking about some hurricane models like the usual right biased HWRF on its long range.

Sorry, I meant specifically GFS ensembles.

When there's only a couple of GFS ensembles showing recurving east of FL chances of that happening are very low.

[Nuno]

I don't see any ensemble models recurving east of FL, unless you are talking about some hurricane models like the usual right biased HWRF on its long range.

Sorry, I meant specifically GFS ensembles.

When there's only a couple of GFS ensembles showing recurving east of FL chances of that happening are very low.

Agreed, I just don't know what conditions in the model would lead those outliers. Slight weakening of the ridge? Even then it would still likely go over FL

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF a bit north through 25hrs...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The only reason the HWRF might be considered "right biased" in the long range is because it jacks up storms so much that they begin to be naturally tugged northward, just FYI.

That being said, the possibility this might recurve is still something very much on the table, especially if it slows down.

[Jr0d]

Anyone have a better link for the UKMET? It shows TD 14 passing just south of the Florida Keys as a tropical storm.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

With the GFS and especially the EURO struggling, I think the UKMET's output is much more important than usual.

Looking at the upper air forecast, I am baffled that the GFS, UKMET and EURO models are so bearish on their intensity forecast.

[Cat5James]

12z HWRF a bit north through 25hrs...

and South thru 36 hours

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF seems about the same intensity wise at 36.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF a bit north through 25hrs...

and South thru 36 hours

I think it's more the 12z is a bit slower than previous runs.