ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201027/7a146eaa155b0c6c451d4d2a6780f804.jpg

Looking better and better. The eyewall looks just about closed completely. Zeta is intensifying for sure. I hope Recon is getting close as I think we are about to get some very interesting data from them, provided they have not turned back around. I hope they are not having mechanical issues.

Interesting that the horizontal-polarized return looks so much stronger then the non-polarized return.

[northjaxpro]

Zeta is looking pretty good right now. I have no doubt Zeta is a hurricane again now and an intensifying one now at that.

[ClarCari]

If recon went back after the last report they would’ve returned to base by now since it was just off East LA, and we would’ve received word that it was cancelled by now no?

[Frank P]

I think that the MS coast could see 50-60 mph sustained, particularly Gulfport to Bay St. Louis. Gusts to 100? Well, probably not THAT high.

Believe he was showing the UKMET or Euro runs in high res from earlier runs. Some do show 80/90mph gusts.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/lo ... 0300z.html

Actually the 18z GFS shows some gusts to 97 mph near Hancock county
https://imgur.com/a/dbtNLbA

[GCANE]

Looks like rain-rate has dropped the last hour.
Apparently it needs to work thru a slug of stable air currently NW of the CoC.
High CAPE air is coming into the core behind that though.

[Iceresistance]

Watching this PVS over Jamaica.
Been getting closer to Zeta all day.

https://i.imgur.com/6JTf7d7.png

What is PVS?

[Steve]

Does the current trajectory bring the storm near or over New Orleans? Or is there still room for variation?

Just posted the spaghetti's in the model threads (from SFWMD). It's close.

[underthwx]

Hopefully not my friend...Wxman57 mentioned in an earlier post, that higher winds may be limited to a tiny area near the center....the Yucatan took a toll on Zeta, and hopefully it will stay a tropical storm.....I haven't spent much time following the storm, my sister is at MD Anderson in Houston not doing well, so I take breaks when I can to check in with yall.....

I think that the MS coast could see 50-60 mph sustained, particularly Gulfport to Bay St. Louis. Gusts to 100? Well, probably not THAT high.

Believe he was showing the UKMET or Euro runs in high res from earlier runs. Some do show 80/90mph gusts.

Oh ok Slamdaddy....my bad....I kind of have been skimming over the posts...I apologize for incorrectly posting concerning the winds...

[NDG]

Does the current trajectory bring the storm near or over New Orleans? Or is there still room for variation?

Just posted the spaghetti's in the model threads (from SFWMD). It's close.

Forget the spaghetti models and intensity models when the storm is in the ~24 hr range from landfall. This is when the GFS, Euro and HWRF do their best in this range and they all 3 show a track over the city of New Orleans.

[underthwx]

Zeta is looking pretty good right now. I have no doubt Zeta is a hurricane again now and an intensifying one now at that.

Yes Jax....For sure Zeta is looking better on satellite, I am interested to see what information the NHC will have in their next update...Zeta is occupying alot of real estate out there, pretty much the whole Gulf...

[underthwx]

If recon went back after the last report they would’ve returned to base by now since it was just off East LA, and we would’ve received word that it was cancelled by now no?

Hmmm....I had thought that recon would be out there constantly with Zeta in the Gulf....maybe a mechanical issue?...

[skyline385]

Watching this PVS over Jamaica.
Been getting closer to Zeta all day.

https://i.imgur.com/6JTf7d7.png

What is PVS?

I found some research on it when i googled it, kinda explains it
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/research_phd.php#:~:text=Potential%20vorticity%20streamers%20(PVSs)%20are,folds%20over%20high%20PV%20air.

[ClarCari]

If recon went back after the last report they would’ve returned to base by now since it was just off East LA, and we would’ve received word that it was cancelled by now no?

Hmmm....I had thought that recon would be out there constantly with Zeta in the Gulf....maybe a mechanical issue?...

I think this is the last low-level recon of the night. It must still be out there with transmission issues. If there were mechanical issues or a reason they returned to base they would’ve been back a half hour or so ago. If a tragedy happened it would’ve been reported I imagine by now too.
Losing an Air Force plane and crew would be a very big deal.

[aspen]

2 hours later, and no signal from recon. Why does this always happen to AF planes?

[supercane4867]

[hipshot]

2 hours later, and no signal from recon. Why does this always happen to AF planes?

I was looking at "recon" on tropical tidbits and I can't figure out what I'm looking at. What are all those lines, they can't be terrain?

[SunnyThoughts]

2 hours later, and no signal from recon. Why does this always happen to AF planes?

Hopefully the plane is out there getting data and able to radio in the findings to the NHC.

[bella_may]

Saw on twitter that there are currently no recons headed to Zeta, despite many mets saying that this is strengthening. Strange

[ClarCari]

Saw on twitter that there are currently no recons headed to Zeta, despite many mets saying that this is strengthening. Strange

I think I might’ve seen the tweet you’re referring to, but that person doesn’t know that. Nobody knows whats happening with the recon out there right now.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1321238630296408067