ATL: LAURA - Models

[SFLcane]

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF starts bombing out from 60hrs to 80hrs

[DestinHurricane]

I’m going with 65 to 70 mph at landfall. I think the NHC will come down a bit on strength with a couple of models trending weaker

Models trending weaker? Besides the GFS, which models have trended weaker since NHC issued their forecast?

[eastcoastFL]

Landfall broward/palm beach.. no bueno

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON and HWRF have both been consistent with starting the aggressive intensification process once it is north of Haiti and in the SE Bahamas. Based on the NHC discussion and thinking, I don't think these possibilities can be discounted.

[Blown Away]

HMON will miss S FL.

12z buries itself into SFL peninsula at 102 hours?

[SFLcane]

HWRF not gonna end well...

[eastcoastFL]

I’m going with 65 to 70 mph at landfall. I think the NHC will come down a bit on strength with a couple of models trending weaker

Models trending weaker? Besides the GFS, which models have trended weaker since NHC issued their forecast?

Which models are weaker? HMON and HWRF just ran as majors

[gatorcane]

Both the 12Z HWRF and HMON through 78 hours are a bit weaker than the prior run though even though days 4 and 5 are still strong. HMON only bombs it out really as it is nearing South Florida. Also the HMON is much faster now.

[supercane4867]

August climo favors a landfall. This is not late September or October.

[DestinHurricane]

I’m going with 65 to 70 mph at landfall. I think the NHC will come down a bit on strength with a couple of models trending weaker

Models trending weaker? Besides the GFS, which models have trended weaker since NHC issued their forecast?

If anything, the NHC will increase their intensity at 5. But I don't think they'll change it.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Both the 12Z HWRF and HMON through 78 hours are a bit weaker than the prior run though even though days 4 and 5 are still strong. HMON only bombs it out really as it is nearing South Florida. Also the HMON is much faster now.

despite the struggles early, bahamas conditions appear favorable and have seemed that way for days now.

[SouthFLTropics]

That's a nasty image for Lake Okeechobee right there. That location would pile a lot of water into the SW corner of the lake near Clewiston.

[Hurricaneman]

I’m going with 65 to 70 mph at landfall. I think the NHC will come down a bit on strength with a couple of models trending weaker

Models trending weaker? Besides the GFS, which models have trended weaker since NHC issued their forecast?

Which models are weaker? HMON and HWRF just ran as majors

In fact the HMON is about the same while the HWRF is a little more aggressive

[eastcoastFL]

Both the 12Z HWRF and HMON through 78 hours are a bit weaker than the prior run though even though days 4 and 5 are still strong. HMON only bombs it out really as it is nearing South Florida. Also the HMON is much faster now.

How much weaker? Both are 950s and I don’t think anyone expects a major before the Bahamas if it’s going to happen.

[AutoPenalti]

Both the 12Z HWRF and HMON through 78 hours are a bit weaker than the prior run though even though days 4 and 5 are still strong. HMON only bombs it out really as it is nearing South Florida. Also the HMON is much faster now.

3-5mb weaker doesn't mean much with an average +/- error.

[Evil Jeremy]

I’m going with 65 to 70 mph at landfall. I think the NHC will come down a bit on strength with a couple of models trending weaker

That's not far off from the 75MPH the NHC is forecasting, and given the potential for intensification in the region of the Bahamas (aside from whatever shifts the models make on a run-to-run basis), I'd say they are wise to maintain that 75MPH forecast until they are fairly certain it will either not be a Hurricane, or be a Major Hurricane on approach to Florida, and make the necessary forecast adjustments then.

We can't get to caught up in the minutia of the models this far out. It was a mistake made here during Isaias. Let's not repeat that. I get that everyone is trained to hyper-react to the latest data (that's just how everyone's minds work in this digital age), but we all need to take a deep breath, and stay focused on the long game.

[eastcoastFL]

Southern half of the state would be dealing with heavy rain and TS conditions for 2 days

[ConvergenceZone]

I’m going with 65 to 70 mph at landfall. I think the NHC will come down a bit on strength with a couple of models trending weaker

Models trending weaker? Besides the GFS, which models have trended weaker since NHC issued their forecast?

I went back and looked and while it’s just the GFS, they do look at all models when making strength forecasts. It’s just moving way too damn fast. This going to take a lot longer to build strength. I’ve seen that with previous lightning speed storms

[SouthFLTropics]

Taking aim at Andros as a major...