ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

Raw T numbers have jumped to 3.5 and are continuing to climb. Once Zeta closes out that eyewall, I expect it to strengthen quickly for at least the next 12 hours

[ScottNAtlanta]

They just issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Atlanta Metro. I cant remember that happening in recent memory

[NDG]

Why the update shows a pressure up to 990 mb, did they get that from the recon? Hard to believe it has gone up that much with convection rebuilding unless it went up well into the 990s mb after it lost its deep convection this morning.

[Steve]

Does the current trajectory bring the storm near or over New Orleans? Or is there still room for variation?

Just posted the spaghetti's in the model threads (from SFWMD). It's close.

Forget the spaghetti models and intensity models when the storm is in the ~24 hr range from landfall. This is when the GFS, Euro and HWRF do their best in this range and they all 3 show a track over the city of New Orleans.

They were included, and they are what they are. NHC bumped track back a hair west at 4 to coincide with EC and GFS. The post and plots I was referring to raised the same question as what I was responding to here

But if you look at overall tracks, there are some slight local variances which is the subject of whether it hits NO directly (or slightly west or east) and how does it hit MS.

Ref (I think the consensus is pretty official. Anything deviating from this would be a surprise. The only questions remaining to be answered is where does it cross in relation to New Orleans/Lake Pontchartain and then how does it affect Mississippi (e.g. does it just move into Hancock County from St. Tammany Parish or does it get some water time and hit closer to Pass Christian?

[Sanibel]

The cyclonic engine kicked back on...I would say that band over the Yucatán Channel should turbo charge the re-firing core...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Why the update shows a pressure up to 990 mb, did they get that from the recon? Hard to believe it has gone up that much with convection rebuilding unless it went up well into the 990s mb after it lost its deep convection this morning.

Well..that is what NHC is reporting with the 8pm advisory

[northjaxpro]

So I am assuming Recon is still out there? Still no clarity about this yet.

[galaxy401]

NHC must still be getting the recon data. We just can't see it probably due to some communication error. Has happened before.

[aspen]

Best guess is that the 990 mbar is from recon data, and the pressure was much higher after landfall than operationally assessed.

[Ryxn]

Fun fact...when Zeta strengthens back into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, the 2020 season in the gulf would essentially mirror the entire 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

2020 Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 9
Tropical Storms: 9
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 2

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Tropical Depressions: 9
Tropical Storms: 8
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 2

The only difference is the number of tropical storms but the number of depressions is the same AS WELL as the categories of the hurricanes.

CAT 1's in the Atlantic 2014: Bertha, Cristobal, Fay
CAT 1's in the Gulf 2020: Hanna, Marco, Zeta

CAT 2 in the Atlantic 2014: Arthur
CAT 2 in the Gulf 2020: Sally

CAT 3 in the Atlantic 2014: Edouard
CAT 3 in the Gulf 2020: Delta

CAT 4 in the Atlantic 2014: Gonzalo
CAT 4 in the Gulf 2020: Laura

[ClarCari]

NHC must still be getting the recon data. We just can't see it probably due to some communication error. Has happened before.

They would’ve stated if they used recon data. If we aren’t getting it, they likely aren’t getting it either.

[supercane4867]

Favorable upper level environment suggests intensification should kick in tomorrow regardless of current pressure reading.

[galaxy401]

NHC must still be getting the recon data. We just can't see it probably due to some communication error. Has happened before.

They would’ve stated if they used recon data. If we aren’t getting it, they likely aren’t getting it either.

They often don't detail recon readings in the Int advisories. The NHC details the recon findings on the discussion in the full advisories so we'll know for sure in a couple hours.

[Nimbus]

NHC must still be getting the recon data. We just can't see it probably due to some communication error. Has happened before.

Last words from flight 19 that disappeared in the Bermuda triangle:

"I know where I am now. ... Don't come after me! ... They look like they're from outer space!"

Models were showing 990 mb's just off the coast so no surprise there.

[MGC]

Looks like the eye wall is about to close off on IR loop. Should start to ramp up tonight.....MGC

[ClarCari]

NHC must still be getting the recon data. We just can't see it probably due to some communication error. Has happened before.

They would’ve stated if they used recon data. If we aren’t getting it, they likely aren’t getting it either.

They often don't detail recon readings in the Int advisories. The NHC details the recon findings on the discussion in the full advisories so we'll know for sure in a couple hours.

They do, I’ve seen plenty this season alone. They mention it in the Public Advisory Discussion section which is given in both Intermediate and Full.
Alas, we will know forsure forsure hopefully at 10PM CDT!

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the eye wall is about to close off on IR loop. Should start to ramp up tonight.....MGC

Yeah I suspect the same MGC. It is ashame that we have no data to see from Recon at the moment. That is, if thèy are actually still out there. I am trying to out what is going on about this.

[skyline385]

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the eye wall is about to close off on IR loop. Should start to ramp up tonight.....MGC

Yeah I suspect the same MGC. It is ashame that we have no data to see from Recon at the moment. That is, if thèy are actually still out there. I am trying to find out what is going on about this.

[Syx6sic]

Best guess is that the 990 mbar is from recon data, and the pressure was much higher after landfall than operationally assessed.

found this on the NHC site for the recon missions not sure how old it is
877
URNT12 KWBC 270101
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL282020
A. 27/00:00:45Z
B. 19.90 deg N 086.61 deg W
C. 700 MB 2981 m
D. 983 mb
E. 185 deg 32 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C24
H. 43 kt
I. 239 deg 34 nm 23:52:34Z
J. 335 deg 31 kt
K. 239 deg 43 nm 23:50:31Z
L. 66 kt
M. 058 deg 23 nm 00:06:20Z
N. 147 deg 64 kt
O. 059 deg 39 nm 00:10:17Z
P. 13 C / 3060 m
Q. 16 C / 3059 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 0928A ZETA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 64 KT 059 / 39 NM 00:10:17Z