ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[wx98]

Would a stronger Hurricane bring it more north towards the Mississippi coast?

It looks like that may be already in the process of occuring.

Mississippi can’t sleep on this one. If it’s going to make it’s expected landfall around Plaquemines then it needs to get moving NW now. Recon confirmed a turn to the north however. Let’s see if it is just a short term wobble.

[wx98]

Since Marco is becoming fairly strong could this upwell cooler water and be a hinderance for Laura? Or will it be minimal since it is small and quick moving?

It is small and moving quickly, but also Laura looks to track south and west of this path, only crossing it around where Marco is now. I would think upwelling effects would be minimal.

[Steve]

Would a stronger Hurricane bring it more north towards the Mississippi coast?

Maybe. GFS has it coming up due north and then hooking toward the NW after a day or so. Not sure, but the HWRF does too. And it has it pretty weak in 36 hours (goes from 997 @ 24 to 1004 at 36).

[Steve]

We're all set for Marco. Got a couple cases of water bottles in the freezer, snacks and provisions and went and helped a friend get their house secured. Flashlights are together. Portable phone chargers are themselves charging. All cars are gassed up and ready to roll in the event Laura throws us a surprise. But I'm feeling a little better about our area based on last night and today's adjustments. Hopefully we'll get a couple days of mid-grade weather action only out of the two-storm setup.

[tailgater]

20nm eye-wall, we musta had an EWRC winds down a good bit tops cooling some also but does look like it’s beating the shear for now. as GCANE has been telling us goers continuing to fire off will do that.

[Nimbus]

Would a stronger Hurricane bring it more north towards the Mississippi coast?

Maybe. GFS has it coming up due north and then hooking toward the NW after a day or so. Not sure, but the HWRF does too. And it has it pretty weak in 36 hours (goes from 997 @ 24 to 1004 at 36).

As a hurricane the outflow from Marco is returning surface pressure to the gulf and the trough is retreating.
So the ridge building in at the end of both model runs has several variables that will dictate landfall.
Most everything should have been factored in but the forward speed of Marco may be a little slower as a hurricane with less shear flow from the trough.
Laura is the big problem and I doubt Marco will be close enough to shift the Laura track right.

[Shell Mound]

Could low- to mid-level dry air be playing a role in the models’ depicting Marco weakening as it nears land?

[Extratropical94]

AF plane is flying a holding pattern. Something's not right there
Correction: It's the NOAA plane.

[Nimbus]

AF plane is flying a holding pattern. Something's not right there

https://i.imgur.com/hGmbeky.png

"been a few times around that track"

[MGC]

Marco is doing a good job of fighting off the shear. His forward speed is up to 14mph which helps. Most likely has peaked intensity wise and should maintain hurricane intensity as the cyclone nears the LA coast tomorrow....MGC

[wxman57]

All major global models now stall Marco south of Louisiana as it's decapitated by strong wind shear then shove the remnant low westward off the LA coast with the low-level flow. Good possibility of that. Small storms are very delicate structures. It could go from a hurricane to nearly a depression in 6-8 hrs. It's the decoy storm. Laura means business.

[tolakram]

The LLC was almost exposed before the new pulse. I can certainly see Marco spinning down rapidly if conditions worsen.

[pcolaman]

The LLC was almost exposed before the new pulse. I can certainly see Marco spinning down rapidly if conditions worsen.

https://imgur.com/jGcgY27

Did the center just reform to the south?

[Jr0d]

AF plane is flying a holding pattern. Something's not right there
Correction: It's the NOAA plane.
https://i.imgur.com/hGmbeky.png

I just saw that. Maybe a search and rescue call?

[chaser1]

Could low- to mid-level dry air be playing a role in the models’ depicting Marco weakening as it nears land?

Good question. I hadn't really assumed so until just now taking a look at the broader Gulf WV view. There is a very distinct wedge of dryer air being pulled in from the Southwest. If this less humid air reflects lower into the mid levels, then this would suggest we might see a barrage of ARC clouds on Marco's west semi-circle and weakening could soon occur. Marco could well get "Isaias'ed" Question then would be whether or not Marco could continue to pop continuous convection. Maybe this is what longer range modeling is picking up on? All I know is that slower and more north would seem to me to better preserve Marco's core

[Extratropical94]

AF plane is flying a holding pattern. Something's not right there
Correction: It's the NOAA plane.
https://i.imgur.com/hGmbeky.png

I just saw that. Maybe a search and rescue call?

That’s also what I thought at first, but then I noticed they are flying at 26600 ft

[Stormcenter]

Let’s be honest here, no one has a clue what
Marco or Laura will eventually do if they keep
on hanging their hats on every new model run.

[ColdFusion]

Crazy looking situation in the center on the last few IR frames. Stranger if you watch it on loop.




Loop:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir

[robbielyn]

All major global models now stall Marco south of Louisiana as it's decapitated by strong wind shear then shove the remnant low westward off the LA coast with the low-level flow. Good possibility of that. Small storms are very delicate structures. It could go from a hurricane to nearly a depression in 6-8 hrs. It's the decoy storm. Laura means business.

Well thank goodness they both didn’t mean business. One (Laura is bad enough!)

[SunnyThoughts]

[quote="ColdFusion"]Crazy looking situation in the center on the last few IR frames. Stranger if you watch it on loop.


[url]https://i.ibb.co/Sv0LMXF/Capture.png [/url]



What in the 2020 heck is it doing? Is that a hot tower?