ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Huge shift west 18Z HWRF. Looks like it's headed for Panama City area this run. What would cause such a dramatic shift west? Is it sensing a stronger ridge? We haven't had any upper atmosphere NOAA planes flying to suggest that.

Most likely due to it being much weaker in the short run.

[Cat5James]

Huge shift west 18Z HWRF. Looks like it's headed for Panama City area this run. What would cause such a dramatic shift west? Is it sensing a stronger ridge? We haven't had any upper atmosphere NOAA planes flying to suggest that.

yeah the ridging is like a tank this run.. pushes td14 towards central texas and keeps td 13 way south..

I believe it also has to do with keeping the system weaker, longer.

[eastcoastFL]

We all need to chill. The most likely scenario right now is a cat 1 landfalling in south FL, just as NHC has it. Don't bet against the NHC. Chill with the model wars until its north of the antellies.

They outright said in their discussions that they're splitting the difference between the models that strengthen, and the ones that dissipate--and that their confidence is low.

I’m not seeing that. Are you referring to a different advisory? All I see is them talking about land interaction making the difference in strength


From 5pm disco

Although the depression has changed little in strength since it
formed yesterday, the overall environment ahead of the system
favors gradual strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to remain
over warm water and in an area of light to moderate vertical wind
shear. Most of the guidance suggests a little more favorable
upper-level wind pattern once the system is north of the Greater
Antilles, but a track farther south would result in more land
interaction, which increases the intensity forecast uncertainty.
The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly slower rate of
strengthening over the next couple of days, but is unchanged at the
latter periods. The overall confidence in both the track and
intensity forecasts remain lower than normal.

[ConvergenceZone]

Guys, just commenting on my observations. With developments today it just appears the euro has been correct all along.

That’s all

I’m starting to feel the same way. Yea I know, everyone wants something to track, heck I do too. It’s like a drug, but sometimes you have to take notice of trends when you start getting closer to “potential” landfall

I’m just curious what trends you’re referring to? We are still well before the time when anything has any significant development. Were you expecting a strong TS today?

Just talking about how a couple of days ago all models were on board except the EURO and GFS of a STRONG hurricane. Many, if not all the models have since backed off on their prior said intensity forecasts. That said, I still think it could be a strong tropical storm at landfall, which is only 5 mph less than what the NHC is currently predicting.

[eastcoastFL]

Huge shift west 18Z HWRF. Looks like it's headed for Panama City area this run. What would cause such a dramatic shift west? Is it sensing a stronger ridge? We haven't had any upper atmosphere NOAA planes flying to suggest that.

Most likely due to it being much weaker in the short run.

Possibly. But the ridge looks stronger also

[Cat5James]

Nice burst of convection in the latest IR frames

[rigbyrigz]

NHC calls for TS for both on Friday, but from comments and watches and warnings, looks like 14 gets to be Laura, and this 13 if it hangs together as per NHC, will be Marco.

Polo, of course.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Anyone want to take bets on whether this or Fourteen will become Laura? NHC has backed off from storm in 12 hours, so they're leaning into Fourteen now.

These are kind of funny but they're made with the benefit of hindsight. everyone is going to be inaccurate. In fairness, Dorian's survival was very much in doubt in the east caribbean. The NHC forecasts kind of split the difference with a rather modest intensity in the early outlooks (sound familiar?). For every case such as this we can find many more where the hype squad pushed a dud that failed to blossom. Will they be held to the same standards? I doubt it. I'm surprised i didn't get scorched on this list....as i distinctly recall tilting toward dissipation in the carib...although i expected a big hurricane if it survived to the Bahamas. It's really astonishingly similar to what is going on now. Speaking more broadly Dorian and 13 remind us how often the tropics are almost a coin toss in some cases. I'd suggest the coin is in the air again and the official forecast kind of splits the difference. Acknowledgement of low confidence is a bit of nod to this phenomenon. The NHC gang sure has my respect.

I don't post here too much, but as a long-time (since '05) lurker, I always thought, in a purely friendly and humorous (not argumentative or gotcha) way, with much love for all the many different flavours of contributors and their approach to the tropics, it might be a fun tradition to "bring out the receipts" as part of a recap at the end of a storm thread or a season. Mostly just for the sake of fun, although helping users calibrate our bulls and our bears might be helpful. Seeing how the Storm2K groupmind reacts to storms is precisely why I love browsing through the old storm archives (Wilma, Epsilon and 2005 in general are particularly fascinating reads); I'm not a known name here, but from an outsider's perspective, I think the bonds in this community are strong precisely because we're all a familiar family of hurricane nerds applying our different perspectives and our traditional reactions to the tropics, and there's something very entertaining about being part of that (which is why we're here, posting rather than keeping our thoughts to ourselves!).

I think that's a pretty cool perspective. Granted, personalities are all different and therefore we all tend to communicate in differing ways. I personally think a storm thread post-mortum would be fun and a cool idea.... so long as the banter is friendly. I dont think everyone would enjoy it equally though; Just as there may be those having a greater or lesser capacity for having humility and the capacity (willingness) to laugh at ones self or just say "oh, I really blew that call. Nice post by you and would be a fun convo to have during or post season. Maybe the type of discussion more easily has in the Discord Chat??

There's a Discord chat? Where do I find the link?

[eastcoastFL]

I’m starting to feel the same way. Yea I know, everyone wants something to track, heck I do too. It’s like a drug, but sometimes you have to take notice of trends when you start getting closer to “potential” landfall

I’m just curious what trends you’re referring to? We are still well before the time when anything has any significant development. Were you expecting a strong TS today?

Just talking about how a couple of days ago all models were on board except the EURO and GFS of a STRONG hurricane. Many, if not all the models have since backed off on their prior said intensity forecasts. That said, I still think it could be a strong tropical storm at landfall, which is only 5 mph less than what the NHC is currently predicting.

Ok. I agree with that, I miss read your post. I thought you meant now.

[tolakram]

re do I find the link?

My signature, or here if you have signatures turned off: https://discord.gg/9q7t2Eq

[ozonepete]

We all need to chill. The most likely scenario right now is a cat 1 landfalling in south FL, just as NHC has it. Don't bet against the NHC. Chill with the model wars until its north of the antellies.

They outright said in their discussions that they're splitting the difference between the models that strengthen, and the ones that dissipate--and that their confidence is low.

So my post didn't seem to go through. What is your confidence level on your forecast for an open wave that never develops?

[eastcoastFL]

Big blow up of convection right now

[HurricaneEdouard]

re do I find the link?

My signature, or here if you have signatures turned off: https://discord.gg/9q7t2Eq

Thanks!

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like recon found pressure and winds pretty much the same as last advisory. Nothing special but enough to confirm it’s still a TD for now

[IsabelaWeather]

HWRF corrected itself even without radar It’s was 974mb last run now it’s 1000mb.

What are you talking about? It gets down to the 950s in the gulf. 970's before the keys.

[Nimbus]

NHC calls for TS for both on Friday, but from comments and watches and warnings, looks like 14 gets to be Laura, and this 13 if it hangs together as per NHC, will be Marco.

Polo, of course.

According to the 18Z HWRF its starting to look like

" Hello, Captain. Do you remember me? "

For the northern gulf coast.

[CyclonicFury]

ASCAT from last night and this morning, as well as the recon mission tonight have all struggled to locate a well-defined center. I'm a bit surprised NHC did not decide to use the Potential TC system until more conclusive evidence of a LLC was found.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC calls for TS for both on Friday, but from comments and watches and warnings, looks like 14 gets to be Laura, and this 13 if it hangs together as per NHC, will be Marco.

Polo, of course.

According to the 18Z HWRF its starting to look like

" Hello, Captain. Do you remember me? "

For the northern gulf coast.

Yah that’s scary. As much as I don’t want anything here in Florida I’d rather us get something weak that fizzles out than see something get into the gulf unscathed. Bad scenario.

[eastcoastFL]

ASCAT from last night and this morning, as well as the recon mission tonight have all struggled to locate a well-defined center. I'm a bit surprised NHC did not decide to use the Potential TC system until more conclusive evidence of a LLC was found.

Has recon found a closed circulation yet? I can’t tell.

[SFLcane]

Impressive blow up this evening...