ATL: LAURA - Models

[NDG]

So far is a good 50-60 miles further south than previous 06z run.

[gatorcane]

Both the 12Z HWRF and HMON through 78 hours are a bit weaker than the prior run though even though days 4 and 5 are still strong. HMON only bombs it out really as it is nearing South Florida. Also the HMON is much faster now.

3-5mb weaker doesn't mean much with an average +/- error.

Might be the start of a trend with these models. Faster and weaker to align more with the GFS and Euro.

[caneseddy]

One thing that has been consistent so far with these runs is that, as it has been explained many times over the past several days, none of the models do anything significant with TD 13 until north of the islands, so the fact that right now it is super weak and may not even be a TD, conditions north of the islands are ripe for intensification if there is something left. Let's keep our eyes on it and be vigilent.

All right, so CMC and HMON so far landfall in South Florida as a borderline major/major hurricane. Wonder if the Euro will stick to its guns

[Shell Mound]

Taking aim at Andros as a major...

https://i.imgur.com/EDtXc2L.png

12Z HWRF will probably show a turn offshore of South FL, similar to that of its 06Z run...

[eastcoastFL]

Both the 12Z HWRF and HMON through 78 hours are a bit weaker than the prior run though even though days 4 and 5 are still strong. HMON only bombs it out really as it is nearing South Florida. Also the HMON is much faster now.

3-5mb weaker doesn't mean much with an average +/- error.

That little of a change doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme.

[TheStormExpert]

Depending on how strong TD #14 gets will determine how strong TD #13 gets. The stronger TD #14 is the weaker TD #13 is or vice versa.

[DestinHurricane]

Both the 12Z HWRF and HMON through 78 hours are a bit weaker than the prior run though even though days 4 and 5 are still strong. HMON only bombs it out really as it is nearing South Florida. Also the HMON is much faster now.

3-5mb weaker doesn't mean much with an average +/- error.

Might be the start of a trend with these models. Faster and weaker to align more with the GFS and Euro.

What? No model has trended weaker besides the GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

HMON and HWRF have both been consistent with starting the aggressive intensification process once it is north of Haiti and in the SE Bahamas. Based on the NHC discussion and thinking, I don't think these possibilities can be discounted.

It can’t be discounted but the GFS quickly jumping on board on its 06z run then being much weaker on its 12z run is worth something.

[Cat5James]

HMON and HWRF have both been consistent with starting the aggressive intensification process once it is north of Haiti and in the SE Bahamas. Based on the NHC discussion and thinking, I don't think these possibilities can be discounted.

It can’t be discounted but the GFS quickly jumping on board on its 06z run then being much weaker on its 12z run is worth something.

The GFS has been all over the place... I don't believe it means much.

[Aric Dunn]

hey look the euro initialized and very small closed isobar lol

[AutoPenalti]

hey look the euro initialized and very small closed isobar lol

BREAKING NEWS: Euro initializes something at 12z

[NDG]

Incredible outflow that the HWRF builds over TD 14.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF rolling across the Gulf Stream straight towards Biscayne Bay with 135mph winds.

[Cat5James]

Taking aim at Andros as a major...

https://i.imgur.com/EDtXc2L.png

12Z HWRF will probably show a turn offshore of South FL, similar to that of its 06Z run...

Not even close

[Blinhart]

Depending on how strong TD #14 gets will determine how strong TD #13 gets. The stronger TD #14 is the weaker TD #13 is or vice versa.

I really don't think that will happen, I think they are far enough apart that they will be able to keep their own atmospheric bubbles until 13 is getting into the GoM.

[eastcoastFL]

Taking aim at Andros as a major...

https://i.imgur.com/EDtXc2L.png

12Z HWRF will probably show a turn offshore of South FL, similar to that of its 06Z run...

Nope, slams into dade/broward

[NDG]

Somebody spoke too soon about been weaker on this run.
And somebody else spoke too soon about turning to the north of SE FL

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing that has been consistent so far with these runs is that, as it has been explained many times over the past several days, none of the models do anything significant with TD 13 until north of the islands, so the fact that right now it is super weak and may not even be a TD, conditions north of the islands are ripe for intensification if there is something left. Let's keep our eyes on it and be vigilent.

All right, so CMC and HMON so far landfall in South Florida as a borderline major/major hurricane. Wonder if the Euro will stick to its guns

And if it does stay weak until it gets in the Bahamas, it’s not going to have much time to do anything at the lightning speed it will be moving

[TheStormExpert]

HMON and HWRF have both been consistent with starting the aggressive intensification process once it is north of Haiti and in the SE Bahamas. Based on the NHC discussion and thinking, I don't think these possibilities can be discounted.

It can’t be discounted but the GFS quickly jumping on board on its 06z run then being much weaker on its 12z run is worth something.

The GFS has been all over the place... I don't believe it means much.

We’ve seen similar instances where a stronger storm prevents the other storm that’s too close from amounting to much due to outflow shear. Wilma and Alpha in 2005 might be a perfect example, though I’m not expecting TD #14 to come close to Wilma’s intensity.

[Blinhart]

Taking aim at Andros as a major...

https://i.imgur.com/EDtXc2L.png

12Z HWRF will probably show a turn offshore of South FL, similar to that of its 06Z run...

Not even close

Yep I don't see any reason for this system to turn away from the States, if anything when 13 gets closer to the GoM that we see a more Westerly movement.