ATL: LAURA - Models

[SFLcane]

Ouch!

[NDG]

One thing that has been consistent so far with these runs is that, as it has been explained many times over the past several days, none of the models do anything significant with TD 13 until north of the islands, so the fact that right now it is super weak and may not even be a TD, conditions north of the islands are ripe for intensification if there is something left. Let's keep our eyes on it and be vigilent.

All right, so CMC and HMON so far landfall in South Florida as a borderline major/major hurricane. Wonder if the Euro will stick to its guns

And if it does stay weak until it gets in the Bahamas, it’s not going to have much time to do anything at the lightning speed it will be moving

Did you forget about Dorian last year?
60-72 hrs is more than plenty of time to become at least a Cat 3.

[DestinHurricane]

One thing that has been consistent so far with these runs is that, as it has been explained many times over the past several days, none of the models do anything significant with TD 13 until north of the islands, so the fact that right now it is super weak and may not even be a TD, conditions north of the islands are ripe for intensification if there is something left. Let's keep our eyes on it and be vigilent.

All right, so CMC and HMON so far landfall in South Florida as a borderline major/major hurricane. Wonder if the Euro will stick to its guns

And if it does stay weak until it gets in the Bahamas, it’s not going to have much time to do anything at the lightning speed it will be moving

Did you forget about Dorian last year?

To be fair, Dorian was moving a lot slowly. However, I think 48 hours over that environment is plenty.

[eastcoastFL]

One thing that has been consistent so far with these runs is that, as it has been explained many times over the past several days, none of the models do anything significant with TD 13 until north of the islands, so the fact that right now it is super weak and may not even be a TD, conditions north of the islands are ripe for intensification if there is something left. Let's keep our eyes on it and be vigilent.

All right, so CMC and HMON so far landfall in South Florida as a borderline major/major hurricane. Wonder if the Euro will stick to its guns

And if it does stay weak until it gets in the Bahamas, it’s not going to have much time to do anything at the lightning speed it will be moving

Looks like the speed slows down in the Bahamas not too slow but not as fast as it’s currently moving. It’s supposed to turn north and then NE after it crosses the state so a slow in forward speed before the turns makes sense

[Shell Mound]

Ouch!

https://i.imgur.com/5rG1BfQ.png

Isn’t the 12Z run showing roughly the same peak intensity as the 00Z and 06Z runs? Does anyone have actual data for the winds?

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing that has been consistent so far with these runs is that, as it has been explained many times over the past several days, none of the models do anything significant with TD 13 until north of the islands, so the fact that right now it is super weak and may not even be a TD, conditions north of the islands are ripe for intensification if there is something left. Let's keep our eyes on it and be vigilent.

All right, so CMC and HMON so far landfall in South Florida as a borderline major/major hurricane. Wonder if the Euro will stick to its guns

And if it does stay weak until it gets in the Bahamas, it’s not going to have much time to do anything at the lightning speed it will be moving

Did you forget about Dorian last year?
60-72 hrs is more than plenty of time to become at least a Cat 3.

I thought it will only have 48 hours once it gets to the Bahamas. And was Dorian moving at the same lightning fast speed?

[AxaltaRacing24]

And if it does stay weak until it gets in the Bahamas, it’s not going to have much time to do anything at the lightning speed it will be moving

Did you forget about Dorian last year?
60-72 hrs is more than plenty of time to become at least a Cat 3.

I thought it will only have 48 hours once it gets to the Bahamas. And was Dorian moving at the same lightning fast speed?

50 hours is plenty of time to become at cat 2/3 in those conditions.

[caneseddy]

And if it does stay weak until it gets in the Bahamas, it’s not going to have much time to do anything at the lightning speed it will be moving

Did you forget about Dorian last year?

To be fair, Dorian was moving a lot slowly. However, I think 48 hours over that environment is plenty.

Also, remember the "A" storm also went from a Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 36 hours over the Bahamas moving at 18mph, so it can happen (not saying it will be in this case).

[StPeteMike]

My fear, more models start forecasting a major into the Bahamas and... eventually Florida. Think we have seen this multiple times before in recent years. We could also see the track pull a Dorian, we won’t know likely until Saturday how definite the track and intensity is.

[Shell Mound]

12Z HWRF takes TD Thirteen solidly WNW across South FL from Miami to Tampa/St. Petersburg, passing south of Lake Okeechobee.

[supercane4867]

Ouch!

https://i.imgur.com/5rG1BfQ.png

Looks identical.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There's a very good reason why two hurricanes have never been recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. If 13L gets a lot stronger than anticipated, 14L will remain weaker due to the former's outflow. This is what the HWRF is showing. Conversely, the opposite could occur, where 14L ramps up more than expected and becomes a hurricane in the Gulf, weakening 13L as it enters the Gulf. Very strange situation for sure.

[toad strangler]

12z EURO with no development of 13 through 72 hours

[ConvergenceZone]

I thing how strong it gets will be determined by what it looks like when it reaches the Bahamas. Will it still be a depression or low end tropical storm? or will it be a mid or high end tropical storm

[SouthFLTropics]

There's a very good reason why two hurricanes have never been recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. If 13L gets a lot stronger than anticipated, 14L will remain weaker due to the former's outflow. This is what the HWRF is showing. Conversely, the opposite could occur, where 14L ramps up more than expected and becomes a hurricane in the Gulf, weakening 13L as it enters the Gulf. Very strange situation for sure.

This is correct. Without going in depth, it's Physics 101. No two objects occupying the same space, for every action in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction, etc.

[AxaltaRacing24]

There's a very good reason why two hurricanes have never been recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. If 13L gets a lot stronger than anticipated, 14L will remain weaker due to the former's outflow. This is what the HWRF is showing. Conversely, the opposite could occur, where 14L ramps up more than expected and becomes a hurricane in the Gulf, weakening 13L as it enters the Gulf. Very strange situation for sure.

they aren't quite close enough on this current track to do that before south florida. however, even on the gfs, the shear was light in front of 13L and 14L had little to no effect before the gulf.

however, if 13L reaches the gulf, it will be hurt by outflow.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z EURO with no development of 13 through 72 hours

Very important to note what the Euro DOES DO. It spins TD 14 up in the GOM pretty significantly. One will thrive, the other one won't.

[Aric Dunn]

12z EURO with no development of 13 through 72 hours

Very important to note what the Euro DOES DO. It spins TD 14 up in the GOM pretty significantly. One will thrive, the other one won't.

That logic would hold if the was showing td 13 stronger on previous runs..

because before this it was not developing either of them lol

[SouthFLTropics]

12z EURO with no development of 13 through 72 hours

Very important to note what the Euro DOES DO. It spins TD 14 up in the GOM pretty significantly. One will thrive, the other one won't.

That logic would hold if the was showing td 13 stronger on previous runs..

because before this it was not developing either of them lol

This is also true... In the end though, I don't think they can both coexist within the same region without somehow affecting one another.

[cp79]

There's a very good reason why two hurricanes have never been recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. If 13L gets a lot stronger than anticipated, 14L will remain weaker due to the former's outflow. This is what the HWRF is showing. Conversely, the opposite could occur, where 14L ramps up more than expected and becomes a hurricane in the Gulf, weakening 13L as it enters the Gulf. Very strange situation for sure.

This is correct. Without going in depth, it's Physics 101. No two objects occupying the same space, for every action in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction, etc.

A lot will depend on land interaction with 14. It could be in the Yucatán for a while. That would inhibit it’s development. It’s going to be interesting to see how this plays out and it’s why I think the models are having such a hard time right now.