ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Winds reduced to your daily afternoon storms "50 mph" in Florida. Not much hope anything will be left other then some rain for SFL. Enjoy your haircut PT9.

These islands have done a number on storms over the years which have saved Florida from some serious problems.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I would pay attention to the Northern side of this wave. That is where some models want to develop the low-level center which could still end up just north of Hispaniola. We can even see some center reformations to the north as the wave interacts with land.

The northern side will smack dead on into Hispaniola. That ought to kill that section.

[Aric Dunn]

Just remember that the models ( especially the global models) this year have not been able to resolve intensity past 3 days with any useful accuracy... at this range HANA was a open wave under shear and dry air.... by both the GFS and Euro..

and that was without land interaction.. anyone claiming weak storm/TD near florida is just regurgitating averaged model output.

at this point it is all speculation past really 24 hours..

Shear forecast and dry air are more often than not overblown...

to get north of the islands right now would require a reformation....

if a center deepens where recon found the wind shift then a track along the southern coast of Hispaniola( or through it ) is quite likely.

[MidnightRain]

NHC now has this skirting Florida and going into the Gulf. I know there’s a lot of uncertainty down it’s path, but it’s definitely something for Gulf coast residents to watch. Especially after watching Hanna spin up rather quickly.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/GBlack22wx/status/1288487928872579076

[Weatherboy1]

Banding/wraparound look to convection on N and NE side of 9 tell me this thing is on the verge of getting named and/or getting its act together. A few high-intensity storms/more convection over the center and were there IMO

[3090]

Discussion highlights:

"It still must be
stressed that since the system lacks a well-defined center and
remains in its formative stage, uncertainty in the specifics of the
track forecast remain high in both the short and longer range. The
latest NHC track foreast has been nudged slightly south of the
previous advisory and lies between the latest ECMWF solution and the
various consensus aids."

"Some additional
intensification is then possible before the system reaches
Hispaniola on Thursday, but weakening is likely to occur while it
interacts with land. After that time, the system's close proximity
to eastern Cuba and an expected increase in southwesterly shear are
likely to inhibit significant re-strengthening."

Good job of capturing key points from the NHC, compared to a number of posts that are based on a lot of non-specific, current, sound scientific data. In other words; personal conjecture and speculation.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm thinking the upcoming interaction with Hispaniola could help to trim its size. Probably will cut the massive circulation in half as the GFS and GFS parallel run suggest. In the most interesting scenario it may end up with 2 TCs: one in the western Caribbean and one in the Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/SAUk3RE.gif

Has that ever happened before?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wonderful...another 2005 reference...this is a reply to the post below...not sure how it got here

[Hurricaneman]

I'm thinking the upcoming interaction with Hispaniola could help to trim its size. Probably will cut the massive circulation in half as the GFS and GFS parallel run suggest. In the most interesting scenario it may end up with 2 TCs: one in the western Caribbean and one in the Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/SAUk3RE.gif

Has that ever happened before?

Td 10 in 2005 the Northern part became Katrina while the southern part became Jose

[Javlin]

I'm thinking the upcoming interaction with Hispaniola could help to trim its size. Probably will cut the massive circulation in half as the GFS and GFS parallel run suggest. In the most interesting scenario it may end up with 2 TCs: one in the western Caribbean and one in the Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/SAUk3RE.gif

Has that ever happened before?

Yes I can think of a time maybe 2000/2005 a system came from the south with very weak steering currents <5mph the system was decoupled with the LLC never making it to the other side but that was a slow mover and the N section looks to being scrapped ATTM?

I must admit in going back and looking at the N section appears a circulation of notable appearance still persist could we have get two?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1288485275912622089

[Blown Away]

Very broad weak circulation NE of the 11 am position?

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1288485275912622089

exactly..

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/1ukq8NX.gif
https://i.imgur.com/1cxcWq3.jpg

Very broad weak circulation NE of the 11 am position?

been watching that.. if that is the case.. then we multiple vorts.. one well west and that one.

could also be a illusion .. have to wait and see.

[aspen]

I'm thinking the upcoming interaction with Hispaniola could help to trim its size. Probably will cut the massive circulation in half as the GFS and GFS parallel run suggest. In the most interesting scenario it may end up with 2 TCs: one in the western Caribbean and one in the Bahamas.

https://i.imgur.com/SAUk3RE.gif

If we see two TCs come out of PTC-9, that would absolutely demolish the record for the earliest J-name storm in the Atlantic; Jose ‘05 formed on August 22nd. Irene ‘05 would also be blown out of the water.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1288495310071898116

[chris_fit]

https://i.imgur.com/1ukq8NX.gif
https://i.imgur.com/1cxcWq3.jpg

Very broad weak circulation NE of the 11 am position?

been watching that.. if that is the case.. then we multiple vorts.. one well west and that one.

could also be a illusion .. have to wait and see.

This is what caught my eye as well. I smell something brewing up there.

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1288495310071898116

Weak LLC? One of many rotating around a broad circulation?

[nativefloridian]

https://i.imgur.com/1ukq8NX.gif
https://i.imgur.com/1cxcWq3.jpg

Very broad weak circulation NE of the 11 am position?

been watching that.. if that is the case.. then we multiple vorts.. one well west and that one.

could also be a illusion .. have to wait and see.

This is what caught my eye as well. I smell something brewing up there.

Saw this a little while ago. Seems the area west of Dominica is trying to wrap up IMO. Oh well....nothing to do but watch, wait, and see what happens.