ATL: ETA - Models

[Blown Away]

So much for climatology and history...

A tropical storm hitting Florida from the east...that is currently near/over Belize.

Right, good luck finding THAT in the 'ol history books LOL

Hurricane King almost perfect analog. Happened late October...

[Loveweather12]

Were is that shield now?

Lol and people actually believed their was an actual shield lol. Thank you for your honest analysis & showing all the model options

[kevin]

Was away from storm2k for most of the time the last 2 days and just went through the threads to find models showing a hurricane landfall from the WCar into SFL from the east in November. This really is the craziest season ever.

[NDG]

06Z Euro Ensembles.

[SouthFLTropics]

06z GFS has shifted slightly ENE

[Blown Away]

06Z Euro Ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/BwC64k5.png

That will keep Eta maybe just a brush on the peninsula next advisory. NHC heavily leaning on Euro so far, so I think the E models into SFL need to have another run or 2 before NHC makes drastic changes. JMHO

[SFLcane]

06Z Euro Ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/BwC64k5.png

That will keep Eta maybe just a brush on the peninsula next advisory. NHC heavily leaning on Euro so far, so I think the E models into SFL need to have another run or 2 before NHC makes drastic changes. JMHO

Na that tcvn shifted quite a bit East also note even the Ukmet is east so they should shift a bit north.

[fci]

A tropical storm hitting Florida from the east...that is currently near/over Belize.

Right, good luck finding THAT in the 'ol history books LOL

Hurricane King almost perfect analog. Happened late October...

Funny, that was the discussion we had on S2K about 3 days ago; the slingshot from NW Carib to the Fl Straits and then a hard left into SE Fl.
King is definitely the analog.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06Z Euro Ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/BwC64k5.png

That will keep Eta maybe just a brush on the peninsula next advisory. NHC heavily leaning on Euro so far, so I think the E models into SFL need to have another run or 2 before NHC makes drastic changes. JMHO

Na that tcvn shifted quite a bit so they should shift a bit north.

Euro been left bias all year. Why stop now? Have feeling it will slowly shift east in the next few runs .

[AutoPenalti]

NHC seems to be forecasting shear in the medium term once it reaches Cuba. I wonder if it's heavily leaning towards the Euro. It does have some mid-level shear to deal with.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow at these 12z models!

https://i.postimg.cc/hPCMm4Jf/56478298-5525-42-CF-A3-C6-84-C021-E00-A31.png

Talk about a spread!

[Blown Away]

12z GFS running... Initialized slightly E of 06z... Forward speed will be the difference in SFL E coast landfall vs Keys... Faster = better chance of SFL E coast... JMHO

[caneseddy]

12z ICON has a weak TS landfalling in Upper Keys; dirty side over metro South Florida

[HurricaneFrances04]

12Z GFS is much weaker

[gatorcane]

Much weaker and sheared on the GFS not to mention it is transitioning to subtropical.

[SouthDadeFish]

It appears the strength of Eta by the time it nears FL is very sensitive to how strong the storm can get over the next 24 h. If the storm remains a sheared mess, it will stay a sheared mess. If it can deepen a bit as it approaches Cuba, then it may have a tight-inner wind field like some of the previous model runs have shown.

[TheStormExpert]

It appears the strength of Eta by the time it nears FL is very sensitive to how strong the storm can get over the next 24 h. If the storm remains a sheared mess, it will stay a sheared mess. If it can deepen a bit as it approaches Cuba, then it may have a tight-inner wind field like some of the previous model runs have shown.

With the way it looks now the weaker solution might be right.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, that's a sensitive forecast. It could essentially be anywhere from 20kt to 50kts depending on how strong it gets beforehand. I wonder if NHC will reduce the intensity forecast by a smidge.

[TheStormExpert]

Much weaker and sheared on the GFS not to mention it is transitioning to subtropical.

https://i.postimg.cc/jjz5J8zz/gfs-ir-watl-fh7-61.gif

Looks like all the action stays over water and The Bahamas.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Much weaker and sheared on the GFS not to mention it is transitioning to subtropical.

https://i.postimg.cc/jjz5J8zz/gfs-ir-watl-fh7-61.gif

Models seem pretty consistent in a hybrid mess near Florida. May be a case where someone 150 miles to the north get worse impacts than someone who is under the center.