ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I'm kinda surprised recon is finding Zeta so weak. Hopefully it stays that way but it really looks to be ramping up. I'll be shocked if the pressure doesn't start dropping soon.

[DucaCane]

One of the best looking tropical storms I’ve ever seen.

[Jr0d]

The next data set or two may very well find hurricane winds, recon is about to make NE quadrand pass. Based on satellite, Zeta is in a strengthening phase...surprised the data has not showed strengthening yet.

Not sure how many more passes recon can make, the good thing about a short flight to the storm is there is enough fuel to do many passes.

[ElectricStorm]

Last few frames looks like it might be in the early stages of clearing out the eye

[pcolaman]

Last few frames looks like it might be in the early stages of clearing out the eye
https://i.imgur.com/jW4Iicv.gif

If you look at the water vapor loops , you will see that the eye is starting to clear out also. Also the push from the west is slowly starting to effect the outflow on the west side of Zeta. Look for a change coming soon in the path more toward the north. IMHO

[MississippiWx]

Yeah, we definitely have a strengthening storm now. Much stronger winds this pass and still not to the eye yet.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah, we definitely have a strengthening storm now. Much stronger winds this pass and still not to the eye yet.

Yeah. Those purple hurricane force barbs extend pretty far NE of the center as well. It's gonna get nasty down there I'm afraid...

[ColdMiser123]

Yeah, we definitely have a strengthening storm now. Much stronger winds this pass and still not to the eye yet.

Plane is flying at 850 mb this pass compared to 700 mb the previous pass, but that still would support ~70 kt at 700 mb, which would still be the strongest 700 mb winds yet.

[ClarCari]

Pressure looks to be deepening to sub-990 now...

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like another hot tower might be firing on the S side. If it is, it could get close at wrapping that pink around...

[skyline385]

60 kts winds on NE wall, pressure extrapolated to 988.9 mb

[ColdMiser123]

A significantly higher core temperature this pass compared to the previous pass, the first sign of more significant pressure falls happening in the near future.

[skyline385]

A significantly higher core temperature this pass compared to the previous pass, the first sign of more significant pressure falls happening in the near future.

Its almost halfway through the Gulf and SST will start to drop. There have been signs for RI for a while but its running out of time.

[ColdMiser123]

A significantly higher core temperature this pass compared to the previous pass, the first sign of more significant pressure falls happening in the near future.

Its almost halfway through the Gulf and SST will start to drop. There have been signs for RI for a while but its running out of time.

Guidance shows pressure falls taking place through just before or up until the moment of landfall, which may be because of the favorable interaction with a jet streak to the northwest.

Thinking a 75-85 kt landfall along the Louisiana coast currently.

[skyline385]

A significantly higher core temperature this pass compared to the previous pass, the first sign of more significant pressure falls happening in the near future.

Its almost halfway through the Gulf and SST will start to drop. There have been signs for RI for a while but its running out of time.

Guidance shows pressure falls taking place through just before or up until the moment of landfall, which may be because of the favorable interaction with a jet streak to the northwest.

Thinking a 75-85 kt landfall along the Louisiana coast currently.

Thats certainly possible, but most likely not a Major as some folks were expecting.

Also, the winds are already pretty much 80 kts just few hundred meters above sea level

[ColdMiser123]

Eye dropsonde splashed at 989 mb with 20 kt wind, supports 987 mb. Looks like pressure falls are starting to take place.

[EquusStorm]

This reorganization is happening faaaast. Not sure if that's a true eye and eyewall but I can't remember the last time I saw a core come together so fast.

[Steve]

A little lightning and thunder here with nothing close by on the radar. Juicy air now? Idk.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/s ... y_loop.php

[underthwx]

Zeta moving along fairly quickly....NW at 15.....

[skyline385]

VDM from 30 mins ago, doesnt mention an eye formation

651
URNT12 KNHC 280449
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL282020
A. 28/04:31:30Z
B. 24.11 deg N 091.49 deg W
C. 850 mb 1333 m
D. 989 mb
E. 015 deg 20 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 59 kt
I. 079 deg 30 nm 04:20:30Z
J. 149 deg 77 kt
K. 076 deg 34 nm 04:19:00Z
L. 41 kt
M. 313 deg 26 nm 04:39:30Z
N. 051 deg 54 kt
O. 313 deg 18 nm 04:37:00Z
P. 17 C / 1531 m
Q. 21 C / 1528 m
R. 18 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF309 1428A ZETA OB 36
MAX FL WIND 77 KT 076 / 34 NM 04:19:00Z