ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

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EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#141 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:24 am

If this isn't upgraded soon I'll eat my hat. Kinda need it in the sun and surely indigestible but c'mon, Nestor and Colin were named
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#142 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:25 am

I'll be shocked if it doesn't get upgraded at 11 AM AST, even more shocked at 5 PM.
I guess they are waiting for consistency with dry air not too far from it, but if it keeps its low latitude it should maintain its convection.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#143 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:26 am

Very short future ahead, but this is probably a tropical depression IMO.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#144 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:28 am

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1285566523025784833


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#145 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:40 am

It does have a 'tail' connected to the itcz which is probably feeding it moisture and helping it pop convection. When that tail is broken will it be able to maintain itself with dry air close by? If it gets organized enough before it loses that moisture source I think it can long enough to at least be a short lived system. Maybe mid-range TS before all is said and done. This small systems can be unpredictable though as we have seen.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#146 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:47 am

Rapid Scan on RAMMB Slider
Sector = Mesoscale2

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 034&y=1040
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#147 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:58 am

As you may remember back in July 17th 2017 TS Don formed over in the MDR, low latitude like 99L, with thicker dust to its north than 99L has right now, the reason why TS Don was short lived. I think that 99L has a better chance to survive more than a couple of days if it gets upgraded later today, as long as it keeps its low latitude. Models show dust to be not that bad when it gets close to the eastern Caribbean Friday night.

Current dust:
Image

Dust when Don formed near the 50th latitude.
Image

Dust forecast for Friday night:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#148 Postby Do_For_Love » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:02 am

Gonzalo, is that you bro? :P Seems like this has a decent shot, at least...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#149 Postby toad strangler » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:03 am

 http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1285560157427175425


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#150 Postby Steve » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:06 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Steve wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:
JB is gonna RAGE against this one when his briefing comes out...lol


I watch his Saturday summary, but I'm pretty tired of his b.s. The idea that we should just not count storms because they didn't know about them in the past and therefore didn't count them is ludicrous. He whines too much.

I was speaking in terms of pure entertainment value.


Yeah, I wasn't being critical of you. I agree with everyone here. If those winds are at the surface, it's clearly already something.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#151 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:19 am

Have a hard time believing they don't make this at least a TD at the 11am advisory. That's just my opinion though so it doesn't really hold any weight lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#152 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:20 am

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

This should be a TD at 11AM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#153 Postby sma10 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:40 am

Steve wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sorry but this is silly.. lol could just wait until the environment becomes hostile then never upgrade..


JB is gonna RAGE against this one when his briefing comes out...lol


I watch his Saturday summary, but I'm pretty tired of his b.s. The idea that we should just not count storms because they didn't know about them in the past and therefore didn't count them is ludicrous. He whines too much.


Have to agree. I kinda got tired of him back in around 2002
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#154 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:45 am

EquusStorm wrote:If this isn't upgraded soon I'll eat my hat. Kinda need it in the sun and surely indigestible but c'mon, Nestor and Colin were named


EXACTLY! Hey NHC, Atlantic MDR T.D Lives Matter! :wall:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#155 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:47 am

I’m thinking the NHC will wait until 5pm but will put cyclogenesis back to 5 am In post season reanalysis
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#156 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:47 am

Looks like they will not pull the trigger at 11 AM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#157 Postby cainjamin » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:49 am

I'm very surprised they didn't upgrade at 11. It's met all the classifications for a TD for at least the last 12 hours. Hopefully they pull the trigger at 5pm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#158 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:50 am



Ben Noll is correct, everyone else is saying that the next Kelvin wave will be moving into the Atlantic next week, but is already getting into our side of the world (western Atlantic basin) as I type this.
Last edited by NDG on Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#159 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:51 am

I can picture it now, we get a clear eye and eyewall and the TWO drops to 50/50
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#160 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:53 am

EquusStorm wrote:I can picture it now, we get a clear eye and eyewall and the TWO drops to 50/50


Funny but not likely, they would upgrade something like that,

I feel at 2 they go 80 to 90% and Gonzalo at 5
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