ATL: MARCO - Models

[eastcoastFL]

84 hrs out.

NAM showing a more robust Rossby Wave but a more unstable GoM as compared to GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/rvwQTMX.png

https://i.imgur.com/dl5025L.png


https://i.imgur.com/225PLfU.png

https://i.imgur.com/BUGr4wa.png

Can you point out where the rosby wave is and what it’s potential impacts are here? Also what is an ARWB. I see you mention that sometimes. I think think it’s rosby wave break but what’s the A?

[Steve]

Canadian in da hau, eh? Last run it kicked 97L down toward Mexico and 98L came in over top and hit LA. Who knows? Both systems are mysteries at the moment.
https://i.imgur.com/ckGpvZX.png

Mysteries? Who knows?

Both systems are on track and have been moving along just as the pros (NHC), have stated. No surprises.

The future. Come on man.

[GCANE]

84 hrs out.

NAM showing a more robust Rossby Wave but a more unstable GoM as compared to GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/rvwQTMX.png

https://i.imgur.com/dl5025L.png


https://i.imgur.com/225PLfU.png

https://i.imgur.com/BUGr4wa.png

Can you point out where the rosby wave is and what it’s potential impacts are here? Also what is an ARWB. I see you mention that sometimes. I think think it’s rosby wave break but what’s the A?

The actual axis of the Rossby Wave is better depicted by the following graphics.
The A is for Anticyclone.
The Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break nearly always occurs on the E to SE side of the tip of the RW.
Rossby Waves create the troughs in the lower troposphere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/artic ... ion-Events

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/ ... in/9451796

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 12GL051682

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jas/articl ... Leading-to

[eastcoastFL]

84 hrs out.

NAM showing a more robust Rossby Wave but a more unstable GoM as compared to GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/rvwQTMX.png

https://i.imgur.com/dl5025L.png


https://i.imgur.com/225PLfU.png

https://i.imgur.com/BUGr4wa.png

Can you point out where the rosby wave is and what it’s potential impacts are here? Also what is an ARWB. I see you mention that sometimes. I think think it’s rosby wave break but what’s the A?

The actual axis of the Rossby Wave is better depicted by the following graphics.
The A is for Anticyclone.
The Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break nearly always occurs on the E to SE side of the tip of the RW.
Rossby Waves create the troughs in the lower troposphere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/artic ... ion-Events

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/ ... in/9451796

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 12GL051682

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jas/articl ... Leading-to

https://i.imgur.com/qLyv9r2.png

https://i.imgur.com/DtliVXy.png

Awesome. Thank you. So do you disagree that the TUTT will pull north out of the way of 98l as the models predict?

[GCANE]

84 hrs out.

NAM showing a more robust Rossby Wave but a more unstable GoM as compared to GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/rvwQTMX.png

https://i.imgur.com/dl5025L.png


https://i.imgur.com/225PLfU.png

https://i.imgur.com/BUGr4wa.png

Can you point out where the rosby wave is and what it’s potential impacts are here? Also what is an ARWB. I see you mention that sometimes. I think think it’s rosby wave break but what’s the A?

The actual axis of the Rossby Wave is better depicted by the following graphics.
The A is for Anticyclone.
The Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break nearly always occurs on the E to SE side of the tip of the RW.
Rossby Waves create the troughs in the lower troposphere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/artic ... ion-Events

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/ ... in/9451796

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 12GL051682

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jas/articl ... Leading-to

https://i.imgur.com/qLyv9r2.png

https://i.imgur.com/DtliVXy.png

I like earthnull school to view Rossby Waves on a global perspective.
You have to be at 250 mb

[GCANE]

Can you point out where the rosby wave is and what it’s potential impacts are here? Also what is an ARWB. I see you mention that sometimes. I think think it’s rosby wave break but what’s the A?

The actual axis of the Rossby Wave is better depicted by the following graphics.
The A is for Anticyclone.
The Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break nearly always occurs on the E to SE side of the tip of the RW.
Rossby Waves create the troughs in the lower troposphere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/artic ... ion-Events

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/ ... in/9451796

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 12GL051682

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jas/articl ... Leading-to

https://i.imgur.com/qLyv9r2.png

https://i.imgur.com/DtliVXy.png

Awesome. Thank you. So do you disagree that the TUTT will pull north out of the way of 98l as the models predict?

Your welcome.
Looks like the TUTT will retrograde to an UL Trough.
There may be enough of a PV Streamer from it to slam down the low-level vorts of 98L.
I can't rely on any of the models for any accuracy.
Just really have to wait and see.

[GCANE]

Outflow from Genevieve is moistening the GoM.
Good looking LL Vort there.
Convection beginning to fire off.
If it persists next few days, could weaken the Rossby Wave as it approaches.
Stay tuned.

[NDG]

06z Euro likes 97L better and now develops it.

[NDG]

06z HWRF very aggressive with 97L.

[stormlover2013]

06z HWRF very aggressive with 97L.

https://i.imgur.com/mAVxYv2.png

high pressure will be strong, 97L isn't making it that far east.

[3090]

Canadian in da hau, eh? Last run it kicked 97L down toward Mexico and 98L came in over top and hit LA. Who knows? Both systems are mysteries at the moment.
https://i.imgur.com/ckGpvZX.png

Mysteries? Who knows?

Both systems are on track and have been moving along just as the pros (NHC), have stated. No surprises.

The future. Come on man.

“The future”? The future is, it will continue to move in the same general motion for the next 2-4 days. The NHC has not deviated on track or its forecast for an increase into a TD. Again, the only change is the percentage. The track it has maintained and is projected to move, is unchanged. No mystery man.

You asked; “Who knows”? Like suggesting the NHC does not know. They have a grip on it.

[SoupBone]

06z HWRF very aggressive with 97L.

https://i.imgur.com/mAVxYv2.png

high pressure will be strong, 97L isn't making it that far east.

This is why this system is so frustrating, or peculiar I guess. It appears to be a North Mexico, or at the most a Southern Texas system, then you see images like this. Does the high plant itself over Texas, shoving it north, or does it get pulled north?

[Snowman67]

Been swamped with work and haven't been able to keep up on the latest. Not that the models are accurate this far out, but what does the spread look like of where this may affect the US?

[Steve]

Mysteries? Who knows?

Both systems are on track and have been moving along just as the pros (NHC), have stated. No surprises.

The future. Come on man.

“The future”? The future is, it will continue to move in the same general motion for the next 2-4 days. The NHC has not deviated on track or its forecast for an increase into a TD. Again, the only change is the percentage. The track it has maintained and is projected to move, is unchanged. No mystery man.

You asked; “Who knows”? Like suggesting the NHC does not know. They have a grip on it.

it's the freaking models thread, not Mr. Rogers Neighborhood or Romper Room. In saying 'who knows', it's rhetorical regarding the model discrepancies. There was and remains widespread disagreement in both strength and track on the MODELS beyond what the NHC, you, me and everyone here knows - 97L will move across the Caribbean and slow down near Central America and the Yucatan.

I'm not one to either question or bash the NHC.

[DestinHurricane]

Been swamped with work and haven't been able to keep up on the latest. Not that the models are accurate this far out, but what does the spread look like of where this may affect the US?

Edit: Oops this is the 97L thread lol. Mexico to FL Panhandle for 97L.

[Steve]

Been swamped with work and haven't been able to keep up on the latest. Not that the models are accurate this far out, but what does the spread look like of where this may affect the US?

How you been Snowman. I haven't had a chance to look at them since last night other than what GCANE posted this morning. I'll get some posts up with the 12z's. There were some that brought it over to Brownsville/Matamoros and petered it out there. Others moved it in to the BoC or southern Mexico. A couple intensified it and moved it toward the N or NW Gulf. ICON should begin rolling in in the next 25-30 minutes, and I'll post as I can grab the data.

[stormlover2013]

Been swamped with work and haven't been able to keep up on the latest. Not that the models are accurate this far out, but what does the spread look like of where this may affect the US?

Eastern Gulf to North Carolina is the main area in play here.

lol for 97 l lol

[stormlover2013]

icon hurricane right in middle gof gom

[Steve]

Here's 120 hours

[stormlover2013]

galveston bound