ATL: SALLY - Models

[Sean in New Orleans]

Runs later today should be much closer to verifying. Let’s get the system in the GOM. I’m concerned. I’ve seen this scenario at this location in the GOM at this time of the year many times. It’s rarely good. Lots of influences right now. Watches and warnings will be more accurate by the end of today.

[kevin]

06z HWRF stronger than the 00z run and becomes a cat 1 hurricane at 48 hours with 76 kt winds (87 mph, 141 kmh).

[Dean4Storms]

06z HMON into P’Cola at 970mb......makes a turn NNE similar to the UKMET 00z run.

[kevin]

06z HWRF looks like it's gonna make landfall near Biloxi and Pascagoula as a low-end major cat 3 hurricane (101 kts, 116 mph, 187 kmh), only about 10 mph less than Katrina had at its US landfall. This feels like pretty much the worst case scenario, but so far HWRF has been very good with intensity this season and considering we're already within the 80 hour range this is definitely concerning. At least it seems to fall apart quite quickly after landfall.

[Airboy]

GFS 6Z have it stronger than before, this can blow up.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

06z HWRF looks like it's gonna make landfall near Biloxi and Pascagoula as a low-end major cat 3 hurricane (101 kts, 116 mph, 187 kmh), only about 10 mph less than Katrina had at its US landfall. This feels like pretty much the worst case scenario, but so far HWRF has been very good with intensity this season and considering we're already within the 80 hour range this is definitely concerning. At least it seems to fall apart quite quickly after landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/L4Ged4k.png

This scenario would not be good for us here in SW AL at all either.

[gatorcane]

The 06Z GFS came in noticeably stronger. Saved loop:

[NDG]

06z Euro doing a good job so far, shows the LLC exiting the FL Peninsula further south than forecasted.
So far on this run is very similar to the earlier 0z run, 20 miles further south.

[NDG]

A good 40-50 mile shift to the west by the 06z Euro so far.

[MidnightRain]

Getting flashbacks to Laura, models under estimating a building ridge.

[MississippiWx]

A good 40-50 mile shift to the west by the 06z Euro so far.

https://i.imgur.com/SXTDn6I.png

Probably the strongest run of the Euro yet.

[cycloneye]

[NDG]

06z GFS ensembles are all over SE LA.
Those models that are to the right of the official track are the ones that immediately take TD 19 WNW when in fact it continues on the WSW heading this morning.

[gqhebert]

Reminder... Models have not been so great this season with tracks or intensity

[Dean4Storms]

12z UKX2 went even further East with a big turn. Trying to understand what it is seeing with the ridge as it was the first to see this turn.

Edit......Ah it is slower. Note the 48 hour position compared to others.

[Blinhart]

I really don't like it when my uneducated guesses start to pan out, when last night I said that the models would slowly shift West, and here we are with the models shifting West. I hope it either shifts to West of Corpus Christi or stops and starts going to East.

[stormlover2013]

12z UK went even further East with a big turn. Trying to understand what it is seeing with the ridge as it was the first to see this turn.

Edit......Ah it is slower. Note the 48 hour position compared to others.

Ukie 12z isn’t out

[Dean4Storms]

12z UK went even further East with a big turn. Trying to understand what it is seeing with the ridge as it was the first to see this turn.

Edit......Ah it is slower. Note the 48 hour position compared to others.

Ukie 12z isn’t out

I meant the UKX2, sorry for not making that plain.

[DestinHurricane]

12z UKX2 went even further East with a big turn. Trying to understand what it is seeing with the ridge as it was the first to see this turn.

Edit......Ah it is slower. Note the 48 hour position compared to others.

Note that this model usually has a strong west bias. The fact that it is east is concerning for you and I.

[Steve]

Ignore - NAM 3km was 00z run.