WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

22W GONI 201029 0000 16.5N 136.6E WPAC 55 995

[dexterlabio]

I dont know, satellite based estimates on intensity are going high but to me Goni still looks kind of lopsided.

[ejeraldmc]

I've got a bad feeling about this one. Those are some low pressures on pretty much all the models

That is what Force 13 also said
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5KQ4JfWax8

I don't really watch Force 13 but I've heard that they are not the most reliable source...

They're a group of friends, amateur wx enthusiasts like many people here ahah

[dexterlabio]

Again, another newbie question (lol), I thought the ECMWF only has model runs every 00z and 12z?

ECMWF has been testing the public release of 06Z and 18Z (you have to pay for it if you want exclusive access) since the start of September, during Haishen, here's the thread when I first broke the news.

Tropical Cyclone tracks from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles : Test Products

Tropical Cyclone tracks from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles : Test Products
Created by Marta Gutierrez, last modified by Anna Ghelli on Sep 03, 2020
ECMWF Council at its 96th session in June 2020, agreed to make available Tropical Cyclone tracks (TC tracks) from the 06/18 UTC forecast cycles as WMO essential products.

While ECMWF is evaluating the impact of these tracks on the corresponding cycles, test data has been made available for download.

To avoid confusion 06Z/18Z cycles have been already available since 2018 but you need $$$ to access it, only since September 2020 they started giving it for 'free'.

Wow thank you for sharing this info! I hate that i am only hearing about this just now lol

[ElectricStorm]

That is what Force 13 also said
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5KQ4JfWax8

I don't really watch Force 13 but I've heard that they are not the most reliable source...

They're a group of friends, amateur wx enthusiasts like many people here ahah

Haha ok that makes sense. I didn't know much about them

[Iceresistance]

That is what Force 13 also said
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5KQ4JfWax8

I don't really watch Force 13 but I've heard that they are not the most reliable source...

They're a group of friends, amateur wx enthusiasts like many people here ahah

They are not what you think, they are a dedicated group working 24/7 with worldwide tropical cyclones.

[1900hurricane]

ASCAT data seems to offer support for the JTWC estimate when the low bias is taken into account. I probably would have gone 60 kt at 00Z personally.

[ejeraldmc]

I don't really watch Force 13 but I've heard that they are not the most reliable source...

They're a group of friends, amateur wx enthusiasts like many people here ahah

They are not what you think, they are a dedicated group working 24/7 with worldwide tropical cyclones.

Yes, they are dedicated but is there something wrong with my description? Are they not amateur wx enthusiasts? Afaik no one of them is a pro met.. Please correct me if I'm wrong

[ElectricStorm]

They're a group of friends, amateur wx enthusiasts like many people here ahah

They are not what you think, they are a dedicated group working 24/7 with worldwide tropical cyclones.

Yes, they are dedicated but is there something wrong with my description? Are they not amateur wx enthusiasts? Afaik no one of them is a pro met.. Please correct me if I'm wrong

Based on their description on the "About" page on thier website, I don't think they are pros. Dedicated? yes. Pros? Nope. So while it's totally fine to look at their stuff, I wouldn't use them for anything official.

[Hayabusa]

Cat 4 peak

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 909 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS CLEARLY DEFINED WITH A PERSISTENT
MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN A 290049Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT
DVORAK ESTIMATES (T3.5 FROM PGTW, T3.0 FROM KNES, AND T2.5 FROM
RJTD) ARE STILL LAGGING BEHIND DUE TO THE SMALLER SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM. TS 22W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OVER WARM (30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND UNDER LOW
(5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASES IN INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD, WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND TS 22W IS ALSO FORECAST TO TRACK OVER EVEN
WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (OVER 31C) THROUGH TAU 72. DURING
THIS PERIOD, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR, AND A PEAK
INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 120 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO BE REACHED BY AROUND
TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE STR, WITH LANDFALL IN
CENTRAL LUZON EXPECTED. WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS TS 22W
INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF LUZON PRIOR TO EXITING INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

Cat 4 peak
https://i.imgur.com/qYRFBNN.gif

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 909 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS CLEARLY DEFINED WITH A PERSISTENT
MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN A 290049Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT
DVORAK ESTIMATES (T3.5 FROM PGTW, T3.0 FROM KNES, AND T2.5 FROM
RJTD) ARE STILL LAGGING BEHIND DUE TO THE SMALLER SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM. TS 22W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OVER WARM (30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND UNDER LOW
(5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASES IN INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD, WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND TS 22W IS ALSO FORECAST TO TRACK OVER EVEN
WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (OVER 31C) THROUGH TAU 72. DURING
THIS PERIOD, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR, AND A PEAK
INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 120 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO BE REACHED BY AROUND
TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE STR, WITH LANDFALL IN
CENTRAL LUZON EXPECTED. WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS TS 22W
INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF LUZON PRIOR TO EXITING INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

Peak forecast keeps going up every time. I personally think we'll get a super typhoon out of this

[ManilaTC]

Philippine Sea Effect dude, I wont be surprised if it exceeds 120kts.

JTWC's track forecast is a tad to the north of the rest of the Westpac agencies (JMA, HKO, CWB) in terms of landfall.
JMA is pointing a crosshair on us here in the capital region.
I'm waiting for PAGASA on its 11 am (0300z) advisory.

[euro6208]

I thought Atsani might become the first Cat 5 this year in the 3 major basins but Goni might take that crown.

[euro6208]

Typhoon at 06Z?

TPPN13 PGTW 290309

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI)

B. 29/0230Z

C. 16.56N

D. 136.36E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY DG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG TO
YIELD A DT OF 4.0. MET IS 3.0. PT IS 4.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[ejeraldmc]

Philippine Sea Effect dude, I wont be surprised if it exceeds 120kts.

JTWC's track forecast is a tad to the north of the rest of the Westpac agencies (JMA, HKO, CWB) in terms of landfall.
JMA is pointing a crosshair on us here in the capital region.
I'm waiting for PAGASA on its 11 am (0300z) advisory.

I think PAGASA is struggling with timely updates. Their advisories are often late.

[ManilaTC]

Philippine Sea Effect dude, I wont be surprised if it exceeds 120kts.

JTWC's track forecast is a tad to the north of the rest of the Westpac agencies (JMA, HKO, CWB) in terms of landfall.
JMA is pointing a crosshair on us here in the capital region.
I'm waiting for PAGASA on its 11 am (0300z) advisory.

I think PAGASA is struggling with timely updates. Their advisories are often late.

Methinks they are deciding on whether to continue on advisory status or belch out a full-on TC Warning. I have seen them do that previously

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Rapid Intensification Guidance

WP222020 201029 00UTC
Storm Located at : 16.50 136.60
Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.


Initial Conditions:
Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U)
INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N
12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F
CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F
CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N
CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U
IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F
TC SIZE [%] 76.00 F


Forecast Conditions:
Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U)
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 13.6 10.5 12.2 17.0 27.2 32.3 40.8 F F F F F N U VU
Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 113.0 114.0 113.0 112.0 98.0 94.0 108.0 53.0 F F F F F F F N
Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N
200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 40.0 19.0 37.0 21.0 20.0 17.0 11.0 N N U N U U U U
Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 62.0 58.0 65.0 67.0 N N N N N U N N
T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -5.0 -12.0 -8.0 N N N N N F F F


Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS
20kt / 12h 63.1% 46.3% 54.7%
25kt / 24h 81.1% 84.8% 83.0%
30kt / 24h 81.1% 83.0% 82.1%
35kt / 24h 73.5% 83.0% 78.2%
40kt / 24h 73.5% 83.0% 78.2%
45kt / 36h 82.1% 83.5% 82.8%
55kt / 36h 82.1% 75.5% 78.8%
55kt / 48h 51.1% 62.9% 57.0%
70kt / 48h 33.1% 54.6% 43.8%
65kt / 72h 54.4% 45.5% 49.9%

[mrbagyo]

As Goni develops a banding eye, now would be a good time for JMA to move the floater off what is left of Molave in SE Asia.

Rapid scan floater is on

[dexterlabio]

This is the weirdest looking STS/typhoon I've ever seen.