ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Time to start thinking about a PTC designation, as it pertains to Cuba. I could see NHC pulling that trigger at 5 (despite not hinting at it in the 2pm TWO) if this rate of organization continues for another couple hours.

I thought that this may happen later tonight or early Saturday. But, seeing how 95L is pulling together at a decent clip, I must say Jeremy it is plausible to reason that NHC could raise a PTC . We will see. I would still lean toward late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Recon will be out there on their mission tomorrow as well.

So do they issue PTC if they have a potential to be a TD close to land, or only if there are TS force winds with a system?
Theres no TS force winds found yettt but since there’s no such thing as TD warnings I wasn’t sure if they pull PTC on potential depressions.

PTC is warranted if TS winds are possible on land within 48 hours, requiring a TS watch to be issued. I believe that’s the core criteria, putting aside current wind speeds.

I think it’s coming tonight, if the early afternoon trends persist. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t see any inhibiting factors (other than Cuba terrain) to slow down organization from now until this passes Cuba. I can’t fathom why we would wake up tomorrow to a reversed situation.

[ClarCari]

The cold front moving down across Texas next week should keep whatever this is well to our east.
I hope.

As a fellow Texan I agree. As a fellow Tropical Enthusiast who tries to not have bias for their home state getting spared..., I think it’s pretty safe for us to say were fine.

What’s interesting is if it manages to move northwest and stay at least a TS that would be the Fifth Louisiana landfall this season!

[northjaxpro]

I thought that this may happen later tonight or early Saturday. But, seeing how 95L is pulling together at a decent clip, I must say Jeremy it is plausible to reason that NHC could raise a PTC . We will see. I would still lean toward late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Recon will be out there on their mission tomorrow as well.

So do they issue PTC if they have a potential to be a TD close to land, or only if there are TS force winds with a system?
Theres no TS force winds found yettt but since there’s no such thing as TD warnings I wasn’t sure if they pull PTC on potential depressions.

PTC is warranted if TS winds are possible on land within 48 hours, requiring a TS watch to be issued. I believe that’s the core criteria, putting aside current wind speeds.

I think it’s coming tonight, if the early afternoon trends persist. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t see any inhibiting factors (other than Cuba terrain) to slow down organization from now until this passes Cuba. I can’t fathom why we would wake up tomorrow to a reversed situation.

I do not see anything hindering development through this weekend. It is organizing right now with convection definitely becoming more concentrated around the LLC. We will have a TS within the next 12 hours imo at the clip 95L is pulling together. Anticyclone right over the system, over very warm ssts. You can not ask for better conditions it is under right now.

[ElectricStorm]

95L is giving Sally's invest a run for it's money for quickest development this season

[Senobia]

The cold front moving down across Texas next week should keep whatever this is well to our east.
I hope.

As a fellow Texan I agree. As a fellow Tropical Enthusiast who tries to not have bias for their home state getting spared..., I think it’s pretty safe for us to say were fine.

What’s interesting is if it manages to move northwest and stay at least a TS that would be the Fifth Louisiana landfall this season!

Two of those greatly impacted parts of SE Texas where I live (20mi from the LA border) and we have people still recovering here, too.
Although nothing like what the Lake Charles, LA area has experienced.

[plasticup]

95L is giving Sally's invest a run for it's money for quickest development this season

And we may find that it’s continued development was equally underestimated. Amazing to see the models whiff so many storms this year but props to the NHC for sniffing these things out.

[underthwx]

The cold front moving down across Texas next week should keep whatever this is well to our east.
I hope.

As a fellow Texan I agree. As a fellow Tropical Enthusiast who tries to not have bias for their home state getting spared..., I think it’s pretty safe for us to say were fine.

What’s interesting is if it manages to move northwest and stay at least a TS that would be the Fifth Louisiana landfall this season!

Nobody needs this storm...it's just been one of those seasons....My hats off to the forecasters at the NHC, who all those days ago....gave indication that a system may spin up in the Carribean....and sure enough...it appears as if it may.....those forecasters are the best on the planet....how do they do it?

[AutoPenalti]

12 hours later and we are already on the 8th page, is this a record?

[underthwx]

Looks likely that my fellow Floridian members may get alot of rainfall....I hope that this system will not pose a serious threat to yall or anyone....it looks like a rainmaker for sure...

[Nimbus]

Models seem to think it will be east of Lake Charles and if it tracked over Cuba it wouldn't have much time to intensify, but this has been a horrible year for storms.

[tropicwatch]

This time of year I would say somewhere along the Florida gulf Coast is a good bet for this one. Maybe not as far west as the Florida Panhandle.

[kevin]

Most recent loop:

[Spacecoast]

This will obviously change, but currently
UKM is alone with genesis, with ~60% probability @54 hrs, then (regenesis?) again @126 hr...

[TheStormExpert]

This time of year I would say somewhere along the Florida gulf Coast is a good bet for this one. Maybe not as far west as the Florida Panhandle.

Anywhere from Tampa southward is the best bet in my opinion. Though the Panhandle and Big Bend region better not let their guard down.

[underthwx]

Most recent loop:

https://imgur.com/CzAr419

It already looks like a depression....or very close to it.... does anyone agree it could be designated a TD by tomorrow?.....it seems obvious on satellite that it is becoming better defined....

[TheStormExpert]

Looks likely that my fellow Floridian members may get alot of rainfall....I hope that this system will not pose a serious threat to yall or anyone....it looks like a rainmaker for sure...

NO MORE RAIN PLEASE!!!

Picked up well over a foot since the month began.

[underthwx]

Looks likely that my fellow Floridian members may get alot of rainfall....I hope that this system will not pose a serious threat to yall or anyone....it looks like a rainmaker for sure...

NO MORE RAIN PLEASE!!!

Picked up well over a foot since the month began.

I feel you my friend....if I could...I would make it snow in Florida, and the rest of the gulf coast....I know yall have been getting a lot of rain in the sunshine state....but unfortunately...yet another system to pay close attention to...

[TheStormExpert]

Looks likely that my fellow Floridian members may get alot of rainfall....I hope that this system will not pose a serious threat to yall or anyone....it looks like a rainmaker for sure...

NO MORE RAIN PLEASE!!!

Picked up well over a foot since the month began.

I feel you my friend....if I could...I would make it snow in Florida, and the rest of the gulf coast....I know yall have been getting a lot of rain in the sunshine state....but unfortunately...yet another system to pay close attention to...

I wouldn’t even accept snow at this point.

But it has been an extremely wet end to the rainy season that’s for sure. It started with a bang and is ending with a bang.

[underthwx]

It's my understanding, from reading a couple different forecast discussion's...that there is a cut-off low that will move through the Central US....that will ultimately determine movement, or track of 95L?.....I've read just about every forecast discussion up and down the Texas coast, from Beaumont to Brownsville....and I haven't seen any mention so far of 95L....rather...the main weather feature seems to be a cold front that is due here by next Thursday....which should push any system eastward?.....

[SouthFLTropics]

Just by looking at satellite, if that blob from the SE rotates to the North and then NW, I think we may get a center reformation somewhere between Grand Cayman and Little Cayman. If that happens and the convection consolidates around it, I think it would be off to the races and a more NE track will be in the cards.