ATL: ZETA - Models

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF much slower early on, might be more E long term.

[gatorcane]

HMON much stronger. Down to 971MB at 81 hours heading NW into the Central Gulf.

[gatorcane]

12z HWRF much slower early on, might be more E long term.

Already more SW of the 06Z at 54 hours. Quite a ridge as models shift west within 36 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z HMON towards panhandle:

[Blown Away]

HMON much stronger. Down to 971MB at 81 hours heading NW into the Central Gulf.

https://i.postimg.cc/MGd8yQ4B/hmon-mslp-wind-95-L-28.png

HMON continues with large SW shifts and continues to be the E outlier... Wouldn’t surprise me if these shifts continue and landfall into Yucatan and get trapped under HP... JMHO and it will take a few more runs to know... I’m not buying CGOM landfall...

[gatorcane]

HMON much stronger. Down to 971MB at 81 hours heading NW into the Central Gulf.

https://i.postimg.cc/MGd8yQ4B/hmon-mslp-wind-95-L-28.png

HMON continues with large SW shifts and continues to be the E outlier... Wouldn’t surprise me if these shifts continue and landfall into Yucatan and get trapped under HP... JMHO and it will take a few more runs to know... I’m not buying CGOM landfall...

I am not buying CGOM also. If it happened with a Western or Central Gulf track, would be the first track like this so late in the season based on historical track data going back 150 years.

[cajungal]

HMON much stronger. Down to 971MB at 81 hours heading NW into the Central Gulf.

https://i.postimg.cc/MGd8yQ4B/hmon-mslp-wind-95-L-28.png

HMON continues with large SW shifts and continues to be the E outlier... Wouldn’t surprise me if these shifts continue and landfall into Yucatan and get trapped under HP... JMHO and it will take a few more runs to know... I’m not buying CGOM landfall...

If it happened with a Western or Central Gulf track, would be the first track like this so late in the season based on historical track data going back 150 years.

Juan hit Oct 28th, 1985. Morgan city, La

[gatorcane]

HMON continues with large SW shifts and continues to be the E outlier... Wouldn’t surprise me if these shifts continue and landfall into Yucatan and get trapped under HP... JMHO and it will take a few more runs to know... I’m not buying CGOM landfall...

If it happened with a Western or Central Gulf track, would be the first track like this so late in the season based on historical track data going back 150 years.

Juan hit Oct 28th, 1985. Morgan city, La

But where Juan formed was nowhere close to where of 95l is expected to form.

[supercane4867]

HWRF also much stronger in the Gulf. Pressure down to 977mb with winds up to 80kts by 81hr

[Stormcenter]

But then again it is 2020.

HMON much stronger. Down to 971MB at 81 hours heading NW into the Central Gulf.

https://i.postimg.cc/MGd8yQ4B/hmon-mslp-wind-95-L-28.png

HMON continues with large SW shifts and continues to be the E outlier... Wouldn’t surprise me if these shifts continue and landfall into Yucatan and get trapped under HP... JMHO and it will take a few more runs to know... I’m not buying CGOM landfall...

I am not buying CGOM also. If it happened with a Western or Central Gulf track, would be the first track like this so late in the season based on historical track data going back 150 years.

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on the mess we are seeing on visible, I believe we are going to continue to see center reformations all over the place. Until this consolidates and a dominate center takes over, the models are for the most part throwing darts blindfolded. JMHO.

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z HWRF has shifted E, landfalling in the W FL Panhandle, stronger than 6Z, but weakening upon approach. No doubt further shifts to come in future runs.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: high end TS to cat 1 H into C LA late 10/28, which is 300 miles w of UK but UK is much later with LF 24 hours later than Euro at Destin:

[Blown Away]

Ok, enough. The 12z Euro sends 95L into TX/LA border area as a TS /Cat 1 in 5 days... I’m making the call, center reformation to the SW, trapped under HP in NW Caribbean and/or over Yucatan and ultimately a NE ejection towards FL peninsula in 5-7 days...

[Loveweather12]

Ok, enough. The 12z Euro sends 95L into TX/LA border area as a TS /Cat 1 in 5 days... I’m making the call, center reformation to the SW, trapped under HP in NW Caribbean and/or over Yucatan and ultimately a NE ejection towards FL peninsula in 5-7 days...

Interested to hear as to why you think that might happen. Thank you for your analysis

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro: high end TS to cat 1 H into C LA late 10/28, which is 300 miles w of UK but UK is much later with LF 24 hours later than Euro at Destin:

https://i.imgur.com/aYjT5Vh.png

Similar area to where Laura and Delta hit, a bit more east. That area just can’t catch a break.

[Senobia]

12Z Euro: high end TS to cat 1 H into C LA late 10/28, which is 300 miles w of UK but UK is much later with LF 24 hours later than Euro at Destin:

https://i.imgur.com/aYjT5Vh.png

Similar area to where Laura and Delta hit, a bit more east. That area just can’t catch a break.

Doubtful.
We have cold fronts forecast to be moving through in that timeframe.

[Blown Away]

Ok, enough. The 12z Euro sends 95L into TX/LA border area as a TS /Cat 1 in 5 days... I’m making the call, center reformation to the SW, trapped under HP in NW Caribbean and/or over Yucatan and ultimately a NE ejection towards FL peninsula in 5-7 days...

Interested to hear as to why you think that might happen. Thank you for your analysis

Mostly climatology based. So rare for a late October storm to move NW from Caribbean to CGOM landfall. My thinking is a center reforms a few degrees SW of current spot and steering currents weaken and 95L sits until strong trough in about 6 days pulls 95L out of Caribbean and kicks him NE. Another scenario is bury into Yucatan. Don’t listen to me, go w/ the NHC...

[Gums]

Salute!

Actually, blown, the fronts have saved many of us in the Panhandle.

I like your model.

Gums sends...

[cp79]

The only way central or So.Florida gets affected is if it gets trapped by the HP like Mitch did and sits in the Caribbean for 3 days. Then the front comes in mid-week and pushes it NE. Other than that, HP will block a system from going to Fla for the next few days. HP over Fla has seemingly sat over the state for the last 10 weeks and keeps blocking systems from heading that direction.