ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

Even if this opened up, I would think the NHC would maintain advisories as long as there is strong potential of re-genesis since watches would be needed.

Excellent point - it becomes a difference without distinction

[eastcoastFL]

Worth noting that pressure has dropped from 1009 mb to 1004 mb.

According to what? Nhc has 1008

[lsuhurricane]

Icon makes second landfall near the LA/MS border as a hurricane. Wild swings still to come

[aspen]

Even if this opened up, I would think the NHC would maintain advisories as long as there is strong potential of re-genesis since watches would be needed.

Maybe a downgrade to a PTC if this opens up? Is that even possible?

[Cat5James]

Worth noting that pressure has dropped from 1009 mb to 1004 mb.

According to what? Nhc has 1008

Local meteorologist Phil Ferro tweeted that recon found surface pressure of 1004mb... perhaps it was an error

[tiger_deF]

This is obviously a strengthening system, I can't believe how many of you are writing this thing off after less than 24 hours of struggling

[Hurricaneman]

From what I can see the center is under the northern blob and do expect the southern blob to fade and or be drawn into the circulation so I do think this is the beginning of a strengthening phase but it could also be a false positive

[Aric Dunn]

From what I can see the center is under the northern blob and do expect the southern blob to fade and or be drawn into the circulation so I do think this is the beginning of a strengthening phase but it could also be a false positive

Agreed. though the false positive is tricky

[brohavwx]

This is obviously a strengthening system, I can't believe how many of you are writing this thing off after less than 24 hours of struggling

I have to wonder too and with this large convective cell looking like a well developed system ... unless its just a supercell with its own outflow making it look like it. Still the ASCAT had a a good kink under that and you know what they say about the deeper and persistent convection area/canopy. I guess well have to wait and see if it is persistent. Seems to be the trend of the season or at least for the last few weeks in the Tropical Atlantic ... elongated CoC fighting for dominance, etc.

[rigbyrigz]

I think you could make a case that the HAFS outlook, although experimental but still apparently a refined model of potential merit under auspices of NOAA, is as good (or bad) as any other model outlook right now. You can get the goods on HAFS at http://www.hfip.org/hafs/

I learned enough in the recent Isaias thread about "tilted storms" and problematic (dry air and shear) uncertainty of "vertical stacking" to appreciate the rather delicate situational guidance that has current HWRF and GFS on totally different pages. HAFS (like HWRF) seems to let it stack as well and deepen to the 960s as it enters a favorable zone, although it just might hit the island mountains enough to be inhibited by that brushback at a critical time. No wonder Levi is hedging his bets almost 50-50 and saying Friday night or early Saturday before one might see a definitive outlook. NHC ofc has to stay flexible, per usual.

[AtlanticWind]

A little off topic , but it would be kind of suprising at near the peak of what is
suppose to be a above to maybe hyperactive year that neither depression13 or14
would become a hurricane as the 00 gfs and the 12z euro show.

Also neither model is showing much else this coming week.

[Hammy]

This is obviously a strengthening system, I can't believe how many of you are writing this thing off after less than 24 hours of struggling

I have to wonder too and with this large convective cell looking like a well developed system ... unless its just a supercell with its own outflow making it look like it. Still the ASCAT had a a good kink under that and you know what they say about the deeper and persistent convection area/canopy. I guess well have to wait and see if it is persistent. Seems to be the trend of the season or at least for the last few weeks in the Tropical Atlantic ... elongated CoC fighting for dominance, etc.

http://www.brohavwx.com/TropicalAtlanticFloater1.jpg

Really seems like the story the last decade, pretty much everything after 2010 with the exception of 2017--nothing can really seem to strengthen any until it's north of 20-25..

[CyclonicFury]

This is obviously a strengthening system, I can't believe how many of you are writing this thing off after less than 24 hours of struggling

I have to wonder too and with this large convective cell looking like a well developed system ... unless its just a supercell with its own outflow making it look like it. Still the ASCAT had a a good kink under that and you know what they say about the deeper and persistent convection area/canopy. I guess well have to wait and see if it is persistent. Seems to be the trend of the season or at least for the last few weeks in the Tropical Atlantic ... elongated CoC fighting for dominance, etc.

http://www.brohavwx.com/TropicalAtlanticFloater1.jpg

Really seems like the story the last decade, pretty much everything after 2010 with the exception of 2017--nothing can really seem to strengthen any until it's north of 20-25..

Well to be fair, nothing south of 20°N reached hurricane strength in 2017 before August 31.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is obviously a strengthening system, I can't believe how many of you are writing this thing off after less than 24 hours of struggling

I have to wonder too and with this large convective cell looking like a well developed system ... unless its just a supercell with its own outflow making it look like it. Still the ASCAT had a a good kink under that and you know what they say about the deeper and persistent convection area/canopy. I guess well have to wait and see if it is persistent. Seems to be the trend of the season or at least for the last few weeks in the Tropical Atlantic ... elongated CoC fighting for dominance, etc.

http://www.brohavwx.com/TropicalAtlanticFloater1.jpg

Really seems like the story the last decade, pretty much everything after 2010 with the exception of 2017--nothing can really seem to strengthen any until it's north of 20-25..

2017 didn't even get going until past august 25th. neither has any recent season. it's august 20th, and we have 2 threats currently, but there's more favorable conditions expected as we head into late august and september.

yeah i just looked back at the past 10 seasons, and every active one gets going past august 20th, and usually don't see their first major of peak season classified until the 25th or later.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

This is obviously a strengthening system, I can't believe how many of you are writing this thing off after less than 24 hours of struggling

I have to wonder too and with this large convective cell looking like a well developed system ... unless its just a supercell with its own outflow making it look like it. Still the ASCAT had a a good kink under that and you know what they say about the deeper and persistent convection area/canopy. I guess well have to wait and see if it is persistent. Seems to be the trend of the season or at least for the last few weeks in the Tropical Atlantic ... elongated CoC fighting for dominance, etc.

http://www.brohavwx.com/TropicalAtlanticFloater1.jpg

Really seems like the story the last decade, pretty much everything after 2010 with the exception of 2017--nothing can really seem to strengthen any until it's north of 20-25..

Matthew, Sandy, Rina, Ernesto (2012), Danny (2015), Otto, Beryl (2018), and Lorenzo would all like to say hello.

Though, there's a point to be had about the storms with tropical origins this year struggling with large or elongated CoCs. Seems like this year in the Atlantic has preferred the WPAC-style of massive tropical waves with multiple points of vorticity before consolidating.

[Hammy]

I have to wonder too and with this large convective cell looking like a well developed system ... unless its just a supercell with its own outflow making it look like it. Still the ASCAT had a a good kink under that and you know what they say about the deeper and persistent convection area/canopy. I guess well have to wait and see if it is persistent. Seems to be the trend of the season or at least for the last few weeks in the Tropical Atlantic ... elongated CoC fighting for dominance, etc.

http://www.brohavwx.com/TropicalAtlanticFloater1.jpg

Really seems like the story the last decade, pretty much everything after 2010 with the exception of 2017--nothing can really seem to strengthen any until it's north of 20-25..

Matthew, Sandy, Rina, Ernesto (2012), Danny (2015), Otto, Beryl (2018), and Lorenzo would all like to say hello.

Though, there's a point to be had about the storms with tropical origins this year struggling with large or elongated CoCs. Seems like this year in the Atlantic has preferred the WPAC-style of massive tropical waves with multiple points of vorticity before consolidating.

I should've specified I meant the Atlantic MDR. It's certainly seen struggling storms that strengthen later (or dissipate) more often than not and it seems we've left the days where we can look at an Atlantic wave and be almost certain it will strengthen behind in the 1990s/2000s.

On the second point (as this happened in 2012 as well) I wonder if that's going to reduce the number of stronger hurricanes that we see this year, especially originating from easterly waves. 2012--which this season is feeling increasingly similar to--only had two majors, one of those was in the subtropics and the other in late October (which of course was Sandy) and all of hurricanes that originated in the Atlantic did so north of 20, if not north of 25.

[Aric Dunn]

This looks like it will start to get interesting..

[CourierPR]

This looks like it will start to get interesting

Please explain, Aric.

[AutoPenalti]

This looks like it will start to get interesting..

Please explain, Aric.

Decreasing shear, may establish an outflow channel.

[CrazyC83]

This looks like it will start to get interesting..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

There's a fair bit of mid-level shear though, and that hurts storms a lot more than upper-level shear.