ATL: LAURA - Models

[cp79]

I know it’s been mentioned on here before but the size of TD14 is so big. If it gets its act together it could hinder the development of 13 once it gets closer to Fla. TD14 is the one that I’m most worried the models are wrong on and it has monster written on it if it comes together and interacts very little with land.

[AxaltaRacing24]

How do we even know for sure the environment in The Bahamas will be favorable for strengthening? Everyone said the same with Isaias and look what happened.

because it's not july. there is now much less shear, dry air, and the mjo is arriving.

not saying a major is guaranteed, but this storm won't look like this on that path.

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON weaker and closer to Hispaniola than 12z

COMPARISON

[Hammy]

It’s funny how when some say they think it can get to a high end major, nobody says anything, but when someone says they think may not develop or just be a tropical storm at landfall, they get crucified

Considering the environment it will be in this weekend, that sounds about right.

People did the same when they pointed out Gonzalo wouldn't strengthen. Upper air isn't the be all end all for intensification, otherwise we'd have two hurricanes at the moment. Clearly there are other unfavorable factors at work.

[TheStormExpert]

How do we even know for sure the environment in The Bahamas will be favorable for strengthening? Everyone said the same with Isaias and look what happened.

because it's not july. there is now much less shear, dry air, and the mjo is arriving.

not saying a major is guaranteed, but this storm won't look like this on that path.

Oh there’s plenty of dry air out there.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

[AxaltaRacing24]

How do we even know for sure the environment in The Bahamas will be favorable for strengthening? Everyone said the same with Isaias and look what happened.

because it's not july. there is now much less shear, dry air, and the mjo is arriving.

not saying a major is guaranteed, but this storm won't look like this on that path.

Oh there’s plenty of dry air out there.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

the bahamas do not look dry at all, and won't be when TD13 is there. it's current environment is dry though.

[eastcoastFL]

18z icon

[caneseddy]

How do we even know for sure the environment in The Bahamas will be favorable for strengthening? Everyone said the same with Isaias and look what happened.

because it's not july. there is now much less shear, dry air, and the mjo is arriving.

not saying a major is guaranteed, but this storm won't look like this on that path.

Oh there’s plenty of dry air out there.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

Then why has not the NHC mentioned it in their discussions? you would think if it was a big issue, they would have mentioned dry air. Also, we don't know what this thing is going to do. Most models have this weak until Saturday; let's see what happens when it goes north of the islands. I do agree that this is an identical scenario as Dorian where it struggled until it went north of the islands and bombed out. Not saying this is the same thing, but we just don't know.

Back to model watching

[cp79]

because it's not july. there is now much less shear, dry air, and the mjo is arriving.

not saying a major is guaranteed, but this storm won't look like this on that path.

Oh there’s plenty of dry air out there.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

the bahamas do not look dry at all, and won't be when TD13 is there. it's current environment is dry though.

There could be shear, though, if TD14 develops into something big. Its outflow could affect a small system like 13 that is approaching from the East.

[eastcoastFL]

How do we even know for sure the environment in The Bahamas will be favorable for strengthening? Everyone said the same with Isaias and look what happened.

because it's not july. there is now much less shear, dry air, and the mjo is arriving.

not saying a major is guaranteed, but this storm won't look like this on that path.

Oh there’s plenty of dry air out there.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

It must not be enough to be an issue or must be forecast to move since nhc isn’t mentioning anything but favorable conditions at that point

[AutoPenalti]

ICON trying really hard.

[SouthFLTropics]

Normally I don't get aggravated on the board due to the discussions that take place...But the ongoing back and forth over what model is right and what model is wrong is getting tiresome. This thread got locked multiple times last night because of just that. I'm all for healthy discussion and theories but at this point I think some in here are beating a dead horse. The same conversation is being rehashed over and over again. Let's watch the models and see how it plays out. It's as simple as that.

[eastcoastFL]

Weak storm scraping Cuba

[tolakram]

How do we even know for sure the environment in The Bahamas will be favorable for strengthening? Everyone said the same with Isaias and look what happened.

The NHC mentions it in their discussion.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think it was moving too fast and got a little too tangled up in the islands that time to make a go at it.

[northjaxpro]

Normally I don't get aggravated on the board due to the discussions that take place...But the ongoing back and forth over what model is right and what model is wrong is getting tiresome. This thread got locked multiple times last night because of just that. I'm all for healthy discussion and theories but at this point I think some in here are beating a dead horse. The same conversation is being rehashed over and over again. Let's watch the models and see how it plays out. It's as simple as that.

Well said SFL Tropics!!

[StPeteMike]

I’m confused why many members here are saying that TD13 is struggling in strength in models due to TD14 yet many are showing TD14 reaching TS and only a few showing it reaching Hurr. strength.

[SouthFLTropics]

So the 18z ICON goes for a weak ride up the Cuban coast and then a NNW hook into the eastern GOM while it remains weak.

On to the 18z GFS

[SFLcane]

Icon weak and west. Hopefully the trend continues with the rest of the modeling tonight.

[Dean4Storms]

The 12z ECM EPS didn’t help matters much at all.

We have a fairly large TD with some dry air at mid level but nothing over impressive, low shear for much of its journey and coming underneath an expanding and strengthening Bermuda Ridge as it gets basically North of Hispaniola, MJO in 8,1.....all recipes for major intensification. What are we missing?