ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

ASCAT

https://i.ibb.co/YB5Ntr9/Capture.png

that looks like its still quite the mess down at the surface.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Zooming in using visible satellite images/loops, I strongly feel we have an LLC taking shape around 16N and just east of 65W. This is in the area of that new burst of convection some have been discussing. Will be interesting to see if this is confirmed by NHC or next recon flight.

Hopefully they will go far enough south to where ASCAT is actually showing the west winds

There are west winds across the A-B-C islands off the coast of Venezuela, but that doesn't mean PTC Nine is a TS. Circulation is very broad, extending from PR south to Venezuela. No tight central circulation, though. Not sure if it's going to make it before it hits the DR tonight, where it will likely see its chances to develop end.

Not saying there is, just would like to see the area sampled as well. Also, it isnt easy to get a west wind in that area in the first place.

[GCANE]

ASCAT

https://i.ibb.co/YB5Ntr9/Capture.png

You better run, you better hide.
Here comes the twenty-first century's latest camper.
He's half a boy and half a man.
His left don't know what his right hand do.

https://youtu.be/FgdV5wL6gHc

[Jr0d]

I think being an open wave, broad low when going through Hispanola is better for strengthening down the road than if it had a tight core that got shredded by the mountains. We have seen the mountains induce a LLC and 'jump start' consolidation. This is a possibly scenario with this system.

[otowntiger]

There is an increasing chance this never becomes Isaias. If it doesn't make it prior to reaching the DR, then it may never make it.

Agreed. Competing centers are completely parasitic to tropical cyclone development. I'd put development chances at perhaps 10-20%. And before anyone accuses me of just being a bear, I was very aggressive with Hanna. Just don't see it this time

I tend to think Wxman's right there. The flip side to that however is that if this system does rapidly get it's act together, I could just as easily see it reaching hurricane intensity prior to any landfall. That would change up the game quite a bit.

I think given the current chaotic state and disorganization I believe anything apart from holding steady or slow, gradual development is highly unlikely.

[Weatherboy1]

16.2N 64.7W is the 2 p.m. NHC advisory location. Exactly where I see a likely low-level center being (per an earlier comment). Seems to me we're on the cusp of FINALLY getting this named/designated something other than a "potential" system

[typhoonty]

Agreed. Competing centers are completely parasitic to tropical cyclone development. I'd put development chances at perhaps 10-20%. And before anyone accuses me of just being a bear, I was very aggressive with Hanna. Just don't see it this time

I agree as well. Just an unfavorable environment + Hispaniola. I would go further, I think it has a 5% chance of getting a name. Will be a nice weekend in Florida!

I think these “Florida will be safe” “Florida will have a nice weekend” posts need to stop, we don’t even have a proven center yet and models are still trying to get a fix on where this will go and how strong it will be.

I never said Florida was safe, or that it would have a nice weekend. I waas merely stating that this thing is a large convective mass with competing energy sources. It's like trying to close a carry on suitcase with 50 pounds of clothes in it. The bad weather WILL make it to Florida in some form and it will be a wet and windy weekend. Just because it doesn't have a name doesn't mean it disappears.

[Shell Mound]

Zooming in using visible satellite images/loops, I strongly feel we have an LLC taking shape around 16N and just east of 65W. This is in the area of that new burst of convection some have been discussing. Will be interesting to see if this is confirmed by NHC or next recon flight.

Hopefully they will go far enough south to where ASCAT is actually showing the west winds

There are west winds across the A-B-C islands off the coast of Venezuela, but that doesn't mean PTC Nine is a TS. Circulation is very broad, extending from PR south to Venezuela. No tight central circulation, though. Not sure if it's going to make it before it hits the DR tonight, where it will likely see its chances to develop end.

I’ll give you the credit. I’ve given up on this system’s “potential” (not that I’m unhappy about that, of course). But I want to learn something from this. I still do not understand why the global models drastically—and dramatically—underestimated Hanna and committed the exact opposite error in regard to this system, given that Hanna was obviously in a much more conducive environment and was moving more slowly. Given my knowledge of model biases, there is really no good meteorological reason/excuse as to why this happened. If we do not learn why, then this experience will turn out to be useless for the future.

[tolakram]

I think I see the start of an LLC, but these things have fooled me before.

Speed it up.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=850.9014892578125&y=1190.9046630859375

[Evil Jeremy]

]We have seen the mo7ntains induce a LLC and 'jump start' consolidation. This is a possibly scenerio with this system.

Many models have been suggesting this for days, spinning up a closed low just off the northern coast of Hispaniola.

[MississippiWx]

16.2N 64.7W is the 2 p.m. NHC advisory location. Exactly where I see a likely low-level center being (per an earlier comment). Seems to me we're on the cusp of FINALLY getting this named/designated something other than a "potential" system

This is where I see it cranking up. There are now obvious low level westerlies to the south of this point. They could still be just off the surface, but they are getting there. I think the next recon will find a tropical cyclone.

[SFLcane]

The Euro has some interesting developments!

 https://twitter.com/WeatherdotUS/status/1288534508292251649

[AdamFirst]

What would prevent this system from consolidation north of Hispaniola as what a myriad of model suites have been saying?

[HurricaneFrances04]

The Euro has some interesting developments!

https://twitter.com/WeatherdotUS/status/1288534508292251649

And further north/stronger in 48 hours as a result.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1288535706642546690

[Ian2401]

lmao i dont even know anymore

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=72

[tolakram]

Hello.

Please stop the one liners and other non productive posts. In addition, please report posts that seem to be trolling rather than responding, it just detracts from useful discussion. We really appreciate the cooperation.

[AJC3]

Hello.

Please stop the one liners and other non productive posts. In addition, please report posts that seem to be trolling rather than responding, it just detracts from useful discussion. We really appreciate the cooperation.

Also, as had been mentioned earlier, there is already a thread for discussion of the tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic. Let's keep any mention of that wave in that thread. Thanks.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121067

[chaser1]

Zooming in using visible satellite images/loops, I strongly feel we have an LLC taking shape around 16N and just east of 65W. This is in the area of that new burst of convection some have been discussing. Will be interesting to see if this is confirmed by NHC or next recon flight.

Hopefully they will go far enough south to where ASCAT is actually showing the west winds

There are west winds across the A-B-C islands off the coast of Venezuela, but that doesn't mean PTC Nine is a TS. Circulation is very broad, extending from PR south to Venezuela. No tight central circulation, though. Not sure if it's going to make it before it hits the DR tonight, where it will likely see its chances to develop end.

'Course, another possibility that could play out would involve Hispanola disrupting the broader northern half of the very broad circulation associated with this wave. In turn this could "pinch off" the return low level flow and perhaps aid and improve convergence for the southern convective point with associated pressure falls that would occur there. It seems that up to now, either mid level lobe has been competing each other AND the broad gyre itself for inflow

[supercane4867]

12z euro confirms the split scenario with the southern portion heading for Central America. Probably won't develop into anything significant but it's interesting to watch nonetheless.