ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Once again it needs to be noted, per Levi, that any real organization structurally IF THAT EVEN HAPPENS isn't supposed to commence until some time tonight when 13 is beyond the LA's

Excellent point. HWRF still has a sloppy mess 12 hrs from now. So don’t expect any major changes throughout the day. Any consolidation today would be ahead of schedule and after tonight it slowly but gradually starts to build. It doesn’t even start getting really consolidated until 48 hrs out north of Hispaniola and becomes a cane around 66hrs in the SE Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

Once again it needs to be noted, per Levi, that any real organization structurally IF THAT EVEN HAPPENS isn't supposed to commence until some time tonight when 13 is beyond the LA's

Yep, and it will be key if there is any type of circulation to take advantage of those favorable conditions one north of the islands.

[NDG]

Winds have switched from the WNW in Gaudeloupe and Domina as TD 13 approaches from the east.

[otowntiger]

The only negative factor in the short term is the rapid forward motion. If anything, some interaction with land to the south could aid organisation:
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1296765520042229761
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1296582183189123072
https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1296766864975175681

so looks to me like the HWRF is now caving to the Euro/GFS, if I’m seeing this correctly- it’s showing a much weaker system that is further south. Interesting.

[Cat5James]

The only negative factor in the short term is the rapid forward motion. If anything, some interaction with land to the south could aid organisation:
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1296765520042229761
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1296582183189123072
https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1296766864975175681

so looks to me like the HWRF is now caving to the Euro/GFS, if I’m seeing this correctly- it’s showing a much weaker system that is further south. Interesting.

I wouldnt call a model still showing a formidable hurricane "caving" as opposed to the other 2 that show a tropical wave

[NDG]

Unflagged TS force winds near the surface CoC, not rain contaminated.

115200 1713N 05934W 8433 01589 0097 +219 +110 100028 030 034 001 00
115230 1711N 05933W 8447 01580 0087 +240 +098 087032 033 034 001 00
115300 1709N 05933W 8421 01603 0087 +239 +095 083032 033 035 001 00

[Blown Away]

The 8am position is 17.9N/59.2W. That is under the CDO, so maybe it gives TD13 a shot.

[eastcoastFL]

Pressure is about 2mb lower where they’re flying now compared to the rest of the flight so far

[zhukm29]

Winds have switched from the WNW in Gaudeloupe and Domina as TD 13 approaches from the east.

https://i.imgur.com/9LfZNpB.gif

Where did you find this map? That is quite interesting.

[NDG]

Enough of a wind shift for an upgrade!!!!!!!!!!!


NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20200821
115330 1707N 05933W 8431 01596 0090 +237 +097 079033 034 034 001 00
115400 1705N 05933W 8425 01602 0092 +232 +095 081032 033 033 000 00
115430 1703N 05933W 8431 01600 0095 +228 +096 081028 030 032 000 00
115500 1701N 05933W 8429 01601 0105 +214 +108 086025 026 033 001 00
115530 1659N 05933W 8425 01605 0108 +207 +116 086026 027 034 000 00
115600 1657N 05933W 8429 01600 0105 +209 +115 082025 026 034 001 00
115630 1655N 05933W 8423 01604 0102 +215 +113 075027 030 033 001 00
115700 1653N 05933W 8434 01589 0099 +220 +108 069024 026 033 001 00
115730 1651N 05933W 8433 01593 0099 +221 +108 066023 024 031 000 00
115800 1649N 05933W 8433 01590 0095 +223 +107 056020 022 031 001 00
115830 1647N 05933W 8429 01599 0097 +220 +104 057015 016 033 000 03
115900 1646N 05932W 8433 01590 0103 +213 +107 066012 013 028 000 00
115930 1644N 05931W 8433 01590 0106 +207 +113 090008 009 029 002 03
120000 1642N 05930W 8430 01599 0110 +202 +120 105005 007 027 000 00
120030 1641N 05930W 8418 01607 0111 +194 +140 156004 005 028 000 03
120100 1639N 05931W 8432 01593 0111 +195 +138 181006 006 027 000 00
120130 1637N 05932W 8424 01601 0115 +189 +140 223008 010 031 000 00
120200 1636N 05933W 8420 01602 0112 +190 +150 216011 011 032 000 00
120230 1634N 05934W 8431 01596 0117 +184 +156 205012 012 031 000 03
120300 1632N 05934W 8417 01609 0115 +186 +155 218011 012 028 000 03

[NDG]

The 8am position is 17.9N/59.2W. That is under the CDO, so maybe it gives TD13 a shot.

Too far north, the recon finds a CoC closer to the 17th latitude.

[NDG]

Definitely a closed circulation developing this morning thanks to land interaction.

[Blown Away]

The 8am position is 17.9N/59.2W. That is under the CDO, so maybe it gives TD13 a shot.

Too far north, the recon finds a CoC closer to the 17th latitude.

Yeah, I see that too. The farther S repositioning will likely move TD13 or TS? over the Big Islands.

[zhukm29]

[NDG]

There it is.

[aspen]

It seems that there was an increasing chance of TD13 going right through the Straits of Florida and into the Gulf, but that new center fix is probably going to change the track and model runs a lot.

[northjaxpro]

Yep!! RECON has found it.

[NDG]

[NDG]

Plenty of westerly winds found, we should see an upgrade soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20200821
120330 1630N 05934W 8431 01600 0114 +192 +148 222006 008 028 000 00
120400 1628N 05934W 8417 01611 0122 +178 +152 225010 011 027 000 00
120430 1627N 05934W 8417 01610 0124 +174 +160 228009 010 027 000 00
120500 1625N 05934W 8421 01606 0125 +174 +154 247007 008 027 000 00
120530 1623N 05934W 8431 01600 0128 +174 +158 267006 006 022 000 00
120600 1621N 05934W 8433 01596 0124 +179 +144 287004 006 022 000 00
120630 1619N 05934W 8431 01601 0127 +182 +139 316003 004 021 000 00
120700 1617N 05935W 8433 01595 0122 +186 +131 316007 008 023 000 00
120730 1615N 05935W 8424 01608 0125 +178 +154 313007 008 023 000 00
120800 1613N 05934W 8415 01619 0122 +184 +160 305008 009 025 000 00
120830 1611N 05935W 8416 01618 0120 +186 +154 300007 008 025 000 00
120900 1609N 05935W 8426 01607 0123 +183 +157 302007 008 021 000 00
120930 1607N 05935W 8402 01625 0122 +181 +149 318008 009 022 000 00
121000 1605N 05935W 8417 01612 0119 +191 +135 308004 007 022 000 00
121030 1603N 05935W 8417 01613 0120 +193 +127 022003 004 023 000 00
121100 1601N 05935W 8422 01610 0122 +190 +147 338004 006 024 000 03
121130 1559N 05935W 8432 01601 0118 +192 +154 356007 008 023 000 00
121200 1557N 05936W 8434 01595 0114 +194 +160 357006 007 023 000 00
121230 1555N 05936W 8433 01598 0116 +197 +145 337006 007 026 000 00
121300 1553N 05937W 8428 01608 0117 +193 +152 269001 004 032 000 00

[SFLcane]

And there it is!!

Looks like recon has found a closed LCC per NDG post.