ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneseddy]

I wonder if this will take a path similar to Hurricane Cleo in 1964, which crossed the mountains of eastern Cuba and then continued up the Florida east coast.

[MidnightRain]

Well, regarding the cone...last night the cone had a direct hit on PR and almost missing the Caribbean entirely to the north after that. Now the cone is a direct hit on DR. I guess my point is it’s a pretty fluid situation without a defined center.

[Ian2401]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1288573115728093185

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1288545810297348102

[STRiZZY]

https://i.imgur.com/78zsapp.gif

I love the shadows from the tstorms that show up at sunrise/sunset <3 on vis sat.

[CM2]

Can a pro explain this extract from the discussion for me, please:
More recently, a band has
developed over the southwestern portion of the broad circulation
and it appears that the system may be closer to acquiring a
well-defined center

Are they hinting/suggesting that the "centre" may be forming to the southwest? And what influence will this have on the short-term movement of the system, especially for us in the Central Caribbean?
Thanks

If it's further south, then that means the general path of the storm will also be further south, though because it's a big storm it isn't gonna rapidly intensify anytime soon. We don't really know where the storm is going because the models are initializing it about 70-80 miles north of where it probabaly actually is. Though worse case you end up with some sloppy tropical storm weather. I don't think there is any doubt the greater antilles are not gonna recive anything more than a TS at worse. The main concern for a hurricane in any capacity is mainly the Bahamas and the US.

[STRiZZY]

I'm interested in where the convection flares up tonight at the peak of the diurnal cycle.
Do they continue to flare of SW of the broad circulation or do they start to bubble up to the N.

[HurricaneEnzo]

If the new NHC cone verifies, PTC-9/Isaias will have 18-24 hours over warm (29-30 C) waters before making landfall in southern Florida. However, the degree of windshield wiping with the models and official forecast cone, along with the high uncertainty in the exact location of the center of the system, make it unlikely that Isaias’ actual track will be like this.

Either side of Florida has its ups and downs for future Isaias. To the east, it could take advantage of the extremely high Gulf Stream SSTs, but it would have to fight against a trough imparting shear on it. To the west, Isaias could avoid the trough (from what I’ve heard), but the waters in the eastern Gulf, while warm, are quite shallow and recently disturbed.

They are shallow...and less warm compared to a couple weeks ago...but they are plenty warm for a transiting storm. every bit as warm if not warmer than the shelf waters that enabled Michael to attain cat 5 status on approach to the panhandle in 2018.. mid to upper 80's. If the system struggles it won't be for lack of warm water around florida.

And a shallow layer of warm water isn't an issue if a storm is moving at a reasonable place. If it stalls or is barely moving sure, but anything over that won't cause any issues.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[hipshot]

If the system indeed takes the persistent track that the Euro has been forecasting run after run, north of Cuba, whoever thinks is going to have SW shear to deal with is lying to themselves. With the trough axis all the way west over the MS river valley it should have fairly good UL conditions.
Remember how bad they were with the intensity of Hanna 2-3 days before making landfall.

Any idea or guess on where PTC-9 may end up or go with that trough?

It all depends what kind of a shape it is after leaves Hispaniola and if the narrow ridge to the north weakens or stays strong, tomorrow we should have a better idea of its tracks, just east of FL, over FL or along the west coast of FL.

Wouldn't it have to make about a 90 degree right turn to do that from its current location, where ever that is?

[SFLcane]

Holy Batman that’s a lot of convection fanning out to the north of the islands.

[CaribJam]

Can a pro explain this extract from the discussion for me, please:
More recently, a band has
developed over the southwestern portion of the broad circulation
and it appears that the system may be closer to acquiring a
well-defined center

Are they hinting/suggesting that the "centre" may be forming to the southwest? And what influence will this have on the short-term movement of the system, especially for us in the Central Caribbean?
Thanks

If it's further south, then that means the general path of the storm will also be further south, though because it's a big storm it isn't gonna rapidly intensify anytime soon. We don't really know where the storm is going because the models are initializing it about 70-80 miles north of where it probabaly actually is. Though worse case you end up with some sloppy tropical storm weather. I don't think there is any doubt the greater antilles are not gonna recive anything more than a TS at worse. The main concern for a hurricane in any capacity is mainly the Bahamas and the US.

Thanks CM2.

With the current SST in the central Caribbean anything is possible. We should all keep a close eye on this system, that seems to have a mind of its own, and plan accordingly. There is SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY with this one.

[Jr0d]

I still think that Hispaniola could split the wave, with the south 'vortex' continuing on a more west track and the other half taking a more NW track. The wave axis is certainly large enough to spawn two systems.

Even if this does not happen, the system is too broad to be shredded to nothing by Hispaniola, in my amateur opinion.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It almost does look like 2 systems rotating around each other on the wider (2mile) view. We will know for sure this time tomorrow (I know I said ask me Wed...but it is still Wed till 11:59 pm). Is the next recon later tonight like it was yesterday?

[SouthFloridawx]

It almost does look like 2 systems rotating around each other on the wider (2mile) view. We will know for sure this time tomorrow (I know I said ask me Wed...but it is still Wed till 11:59 pm). Is the next recon later tonight like it was yesterday?

That's what I was thinking?

[Hammy]

Are we getting another flight this evening?

[alienstorm]

I see it @15.5N 65.0W I think it further south than where the NHC has it but they are the experts.

[DestinHurricane]

It can't seem to consolidate, too big. Not thinking this will get named.

[Evil Jeremy]

Are we getting another flight this evening?

I believe in an hour...

[HurricaneFrances04]

Next recon lifts off in 1 hour

000
NOUS42 KNHC 282100
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0500 PM EDT TUE 28 JULY 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-063 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 29/2330Z,30/0530Z A. 30/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0409A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0509A CYCLONE
C. 29/2300Z C. 30/1030Z
D. 17.3N 64.0W D. 18.8N 67.6W
E. 29/2300Z TO 30/0530Z E. 30/1100Z TO 30/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND
THE SYSTEM FOR 31/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 30/1730Z,
AND FOR 31/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 31/0530Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TDR MISSION FOR 31/12Z DEPARTING KLAL
AT 31/08Z.

3. REMARK: CORRECTED FLIGHT ONE MISSION ID.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM

NNNN

[STRiZZY]

I still think that Hispaniola could split the wave, with the south 'vortex' continuing on a more west track and the other half taking a more NW track. The wave axis is certainly large enough to spawn two systems.

Even if this does not happen, the system is too broad to be shredded to nothing by Hispaniola, in my amateur opinion.

Yeah the models have been pretty consistent in one thing and that being when the storm reaches the GAs it sheds the bottom half of the broad circulation off and consolidates north of the islands.