ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Given the GFS's right bias it has had for many years I would be inclined to think further West shifts will be coming. Today's 12z Euro will tell the tale. If it shifts NE and off the coast then I'll buy more into what the GFS is selling. Until the Euro shows that though, it is hard to go with the GFS alone. A track somewhere between the Euro and GFS is most likely.

[Siker]

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 17.7N 68.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 19.8N 71.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 24 21.1N 73.9W 1000 47
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 22.5N 76.0W 997 50
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 23.8N 78.0W 996 48
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 25.1N 79.1W 992 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 26.5N 79.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.08.2020 84 27.9N 80.0W 987 50
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 29.6N 79.7W 980 59
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 31.9N 78.3W 963 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 39.5N 72.9W 965 71
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 43.3N 68.4W 978 59

[AutoPenalti]

Also, looks like while Isaias keeps us in suspense crawling up the FL coast, Josephine approaches NE Leewards

Yeah, this is the thing:

Whenever there IS something "out there" to focus on, TWC guys tend to get Soooo focused on THAT, that they never show us the whole Atlantic basin so we can see for ourselves if something is coming down the pike behind it. This is what I find most fascinating...watching how the storms interact off each other when one comes in behind where a previous storm has been. Does the fact that it was just a wave mean nothing? Is the water temp even a degree or two lower? Does that matter? Or are the steering currents SO different by that time that they really do not interact/impact at all? Those are the types of things I find fascinating now. It USED TO BE "just" hurricanes," but after almost 60 years of watching/studying them (as an amateur, or course!), I've started looking at other factors involved in their formation/path/strengthening patterns, etc.

Anyway, it's like they're so thrilled to have a substantial storm to drone on about for 24 hours at a time, that they forget more storms are going to be forming further out!

HELLO?!?!?! It's not even August yet! There's going to be a LOT going on out there! Let us see it!

Well, tbf, Josephine didn't really show up on anyone's radar until today.

[ColdMiser123]

New UKMET stronger, still with a landfall close to Morehead City:

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 17.7N 68.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 19.8N 71.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 24 21.1N 73.9W 1000 47
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 22.5N 76.0W 997 50
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 23.8N 78.0W 996 48
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 25.1N 79.1W 992 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 26.5N 79.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.08.2020 84 27.9N 80.0W 987 50
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 29.6N 79.7W 980 59
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 31.9N 78.3W 963 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 39.5N 72.9W 965 71
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 43.3N 68.4W 978 59

[HurricaneEnzo]

Don't tell me the NAVGEM had this nailed down out 180hrs. Was showing a Hurricane in Eastern NC. Probably overdid the intensity as it was 957mb but dang. I know we have a long ways to go but if this is how it plays out my mind will be blown.

[Cataegis96]

New UKMET stronger, still with a landfall close to Morehead City:

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 17.7N 68.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 19.8N 71.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 24 21.1N 73.9W 1000 47
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 22.5N 76.0W 997 50
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 23.8N 78.0W 996 48
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 25.1N 79.1W 992 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 26.5N 79.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.08.2020 84 27.9N 80.0W 987 50
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 29.6N 79.7W 980 59
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 31.9N 78.3W 963 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 39.5N 72.9W 965 71
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 43.3N 68.4W 978 59

955 mb... Yikes. Cannot write this storm off. I was skeptical at first, but the more I look into this, the more I am starting to think there will be a strengthening hurricane off the SE Coast come Sunday morning.

[AutoPenalti]

UKMET seems to be east of 06z

[northjaxpro]

Given the GFS's right bias it has had for many years I would be inclined to think further West shifts will be coming. Today's 12z Euro will tell the tale. If it shifts NE and off the coast then I'll buy more into what the GFS is selling. Until the Euro shows that though, it is hard to go with the GFS alone. A track somewhere between the Euro and GFS is most likely.

I will say now the EURO is not backing off the west trend. I have been riding EURO from the very beginning.

Just check out the latest 700 mb steering analysis and that tells the story.

+ NAO is verifying I am afraid..

[SFLcane]

12z GFS trend...A bit westward

[lhpfish]

when does 12z euro run?

[AutoPenalti]

GFS 3-run comparison.

Note the extension of the ridge.

[AdamFirst]

when does 12z euro run?

Just before 2 PM eastern time

[St0rmTh0r]

Given the GFS's right bias it has had for many years I would be inclined to think further West shifts will be coming. Today's 12z Euro will tell the tale. If it shifts NE and off the coast then I'll buy more into what the GFS is selling. Until the Euro shows that though, it is hard to go with the GFS alone. A track somewhere between the Euro and GFS is most likely.

I will say now the EURO is not backing off the west trend. I have been riding EURO from the very beginning.

Just check out the latest 700 mb steering analysis and that tells the story.

+ NAO is verifying I am afraid..

I think more people need to look at this the pattern is favorable for a landfall.

[sma10]

New UKMET stronger, still with a landfall close to Morehead City:

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 17.7N 68.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 19.8N 71.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 24 21.1N 73.9W 1000 47
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 22.5N 76.0W 997 50
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 23.8N 78.0W 996 48
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 25.1N 79.1W 992 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 26.5N 79.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.08.2020 84 27.9N 80.0W 987 50
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 29.6N 79.7W 980 59
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 31.9N 78.3W 963 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 39.5N 72.9W 965 71
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 43.3N 68.4W 978 59

These are respectably low pressures for the Ukmet model

[BobHarlem]

UK showing Cat 3 hit on MHX has my attention, really curious what the Euro winds up doing.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC decided to take the mountain expedition over Hispaniola...

[caneseddy]

Canadian never intensifies it much and has a weak TS landfalling in the Upper Keys

[HurricaneEnzo]

UK showing Cat 3 hit on MHX has my attention, really curious what the Euro winds up doing.

Actually if you look at the wind speeds it is showing a cat 1. Hurricanes up in these parts can attain that kind of low pressure because they generally increase in size north of Florida. Hurricane Irene in 2011 made landfall in my area as a cat 1 with a pressure of 951mb. Isaias has just been a huge storm in general but also baroclinic interactions and reduced corolis effect often cause storms to become huge the further North they go.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC is a right shift from last nights 00z run. Slightly, and I mean ever so slightly, stronger. Passes South of the fork in the road (Andros) and hits South Dade/Upper Keys. If I was a betting man I'd place my bet on a Florida coast scraper from Boca to Cape Canaveral and then on to the outer banks.

[Blown Away]

The stage is set for the EURO, the 00z landfalled in SFL crossed over to west FL coast then turned N. It's kinda on it's own now, will it cave to the GFS?