ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1521 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:05 am

First visible

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1522 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:05 am

3 distinct cirrus layers all with gravity waves.
Towers are now building the fourth.

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1523 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:06 am

Iceresistance wrote:Uh oh, NOAA2 Recon signal may have failed, no update for 30 minutes. (8:04 AM CDT)


Have all the recon planes just gone to hell in a handbasket this season or are we just noticing it more because there have been so many cyclones?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1524 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:07 am

SconnieCane wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Uh oh, NOAA2 Recon signal may have failed, no update for 30 minutes. (8:04 AM CDT)


Have all the recon planes just gone to hell in a handbasket this season or are we just noticing it more because there have been so many cyclones?

I just noticed the AF307's Signal has also stopped.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1525 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:10 am

Does anyone have any idea what happened to the NOAA2 & AF307 Recon planes? Nothing since around 7:35 AM CDT

AF307 Mission #15 into ZETA
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 12:31 UTC Oct 28, 2020

NOAA2 Mission #16 into ZETA
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 12:30 UTC Oct 28, 2020
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1526 Postby tomatkins » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:11 am

SconnieCane wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Uh oh, NOAA2 Recon signal may have failed, no update for 30 minutes. (8:04 AM CDT)


Have all the recon planes just gone to hell in a handbasket this season or are we just noticing it more because there have been so many cyclones?

Could be that they havent had time for routine mainaintence.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1527 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:12 am

Looks like its at the point of max energy input.
Could go borderline pinhole.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1528 Postby 3090 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:17 am

GCANE wrote:3 distinct cirrus layers all with gravity waves.
Towers are now building the fourth.

https://i.imgur.com/DdoSndx.png
Probably running out of time for any rapid intensification.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1529 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:18 am

Signal from both planes are back up & running
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1530 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:19 am

NOAA2 has picked up winds of 90 knots (105 mph)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1531 Postby 3090 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:20 am

Iceresistance wrote:NOAA2 has picked up winds of 90 knots (105 mph)
:eek:
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1532 Postby bella_may » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:22 am

Iceresistance wrote:NOAA2 has picked up winds of 90 knots (105 mph)

Sheesh. Make it stop!!!
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1533 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:23 am

Iceresistance wrote:NOAA2 has picked up winds of 90 knots (105 mph)

Keep in mind those are at flight level.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1534 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:23 am

3090 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:NOAA2 has picked up winds of 90 knots (105 mph)
:eek:

Flight level. Around 80kts at the surface.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1535 Postby bella_may » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:27 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:NOAA2 has picked up winds of 90 knots (105 mph)

Keep in mind those are at flight level.

Not a good sign regardless
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1536 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:30 am

Kazmit wrote:
3090 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:NOAA2 has picked up winds of 90 knots (105 mph)
:eek:

Flight level. Around 80kts at the surface.


SFMR saying 65-70 kts at the surface. That 90kt FL wind was a very sharp/short spike in a heavy squall. Average FL winds 65-75 kts. Doesn't look as impressive on satellite as it did a couple hours ago. May have peaked. Shear will be increasing now.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1537 Postby Gums » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:35 am

Salute!

@ Bama folks ......

The only silver lining is that the forward speed of this storm will likely result in a very short surge time, and then the water goes out once wind shifts more to the north. The storm has not been building up the "surge" for hours and hours like Katrina, which surpassed the predicted levels. Ditto for Laura earlier this year.

That being said, Grand Bay to Pascagoula to Gautier is gonna get high water. If you are below 15 feet I would be very concerned.

Thos and prayers with you all there.

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1538 Postby Ken711 » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:35 am

wxman57 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
3090 wrote: :eek:

Flight level. Around 80kts at the surface.


SFMR saying 65-70 kts at the surface. That 90kt FL wind was a very sharp/short spike in a heavy squall. Average FL winds 65-75 kts. Doesn't look as impressive on satellite as it did a couple hours ago. May have peaked. Shear will be increasing now.


Any decrease before landfall will be welcomed.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1539 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:36 am

West eyewall showing signs of some small amount of dry-air entrainment.
89% RH at 850mb
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1540 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:38 am

New vortical hot tower popping up on NE eyewall
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