ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks to ASCAT is a lot more organized than many of us thought, including me. That persistent convective cell should had been a sign that it has a well defined LLC attached to it.
I placed the L where ASCAT showed the LLC to be.

https://i.imgur.com/Yd69HWZ.jpg

saw it this morning visible I noticed the inflow.. tell tale sign..

also I think it has shifted to the east a little as the convection built up.

[aspen]

This is pretty close to being a TD

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidb ... 2716761095

[supercane4867]

TCFA issued.

[CrazyC83]

If we didn't have Recon coming, that ASCAT pass alone could probably be enough to declare it a TD or TS.

[cycloneye]

If we didn't have Recon coming, that ASCAT pass alone could probably be enough to declare it a TD or TS.

Can you post the recon data? I can't today.

[BYG Jacob]

Harvey flashbacks for me.

[wxman57]

This did not qualify as a TD at 12Z yesterday (Gonzalo-to-be). True, there was no scatterometer pass, but is such a pass needed to upgrade any system? Just wondering. In any case, it was clearly much better organized then than 91L is now. I still think tomorrow for TD/TS, but who knows what NHC will do? Doesn't make much difference as far as the outcome.

[Aric Dunn]

This did not qualify as a TD at 12Z yesterday (Gonzalo-to-be). True, there was no scatterometer pass, but is such a pass needed to upgrade any system? Just wondering. In any case, it was clearly much better organized then than 91L is now. I still think tomorrow for TD/TS, but who knows what NHC will do? Doesn't make much difference as far as the outcome.

http://wxman57.com/images/Gonzalo.JPG

Assuming it does not outperform the backwards global models.. lol

[EquusStorm]

Always great to have recon data to go by. Harvey was named on Aug 3 2005 so that's our date to beat... which, should be pretty easy to do at this rate

[cycloneye]

70%/80%

Recent satellite wind data indicate that a broad low pressure area
has formed in association with the tropical wave over the central
Gulf of Mexico. However, the accompanying shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently poorly organized. Conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two as the system moves west-
northwestward at about 10 mph. Interests in the western Gulf of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as watches or
warnings could be required for portions of the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Sounds like the door is open for a PTC at minimum.

[northjaxpro]

Sounds like the door is open for a PTC at minimum.

I am anticipating it , especially being a GOM threat within the next couple of days.

[wxman57]

Sounds like the door is open for a PTC at minimum.

Good point, it meets the requirements now. I predict landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay Friday late afternoon/evening as 40kt TS. NHC's track will almost certainly match that.

[gfsperpendicular]

Sounds like the door is open for a PTC at minimum.

Don't they usually wait on PTC advisories until they want to issue watches? In that case, we would probably have to wait until tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

Latest update from local met Jeff Lindner:

Based on satellite and surface observations, a broad surface low pressure center has formed with the tropical wave moving into the central Gulf of Mexico. A USAF mission is currently departing to investigate this system to determine if a tropical depression has formed. NHC has increased the chance of formation to 80% and advised that watches and/or warnings could be issued for portions of the TX and LA coast tonight or on Thursday. Overall the organization of the system is increasing and it is likely that a tropical depression or storm will form in the next day or two as the system moves generally toward the WNW around 10mph.

[wxman57]

Sounds like the door is open for a PTC at minimum.

Don't they usually wait on PTC advisories until they want to issue watches? In that case, we would probably have to wait until tomorrow.

Well, it's about 48 hrs from impacting the TX coast, possibly with TS winds. That meets watch criteria. Doesn't look like recon is flying. Nothing on Levi's page yet.

[SoupBone]

Sounds like the door is open for a PTC at minimum.

Good point, it meets the requirements now. I predict landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay Friday late afternoon/evening as 40kt TS. NHC's track will almost certainly match that.

What's the confidence level in that track? Seems like the window is still open for anywhere from Corpus Christi to Houston.

[Steve]

Sounds like the door is open for a PTC at minimum.

Good point, it meets the requirements now. I predict landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay Friday late afternoon/evening as 40kt TS. NHC's track will almost certainly match that.

What's the confidence level in that track? Seems like the window is still open for anywhere from Corpus Christi to Houston.

Looks like a bend west or wsw a few days after landfall. Upper pattern appears to have ridging to the north which bears it out. I think 57 is probably 85-90% on his track.

[jaguars_22]

looks like its fixing to go poof again. Just like 90l did in the evenings

[lrak]

I'm glad to read it will not have too much wind. Little worried about power for our hospitals.