ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Blown Away]

12z EURO seems a little slower and stronger than 00z at @96 hours, may allow more latitude gain past 96hrs compared to 00z?

[DestinHurricane]

Models trending towards a Jose 2017 like track. Maybe some TS watches for the NE or NC.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Pretty good agreement between the Euro and GFS through 96 hours

Models trending towards a Jose 2017 like track. Maybe some TS watches for the NE or NC.

TS watches 2 weeks away?

[aspen]

GFS, Euro, CMC, and ICON are calling for this to become a TC between 48-90 hours out. 92L might be bumped up to high today.

[otowntiger]

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL92_2020072512_GEFS_large.png?1595698263

Looks about right- as this is a very typical path climatologically.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS & 12z Euro have 92L at the same latitude @120 hrs

[Highteeld]

[DestinHurricane]

Pretty good agreement between the Euro and GFS through 96 hours

Models trending towards a Jose 2017 like track. Maybe some TS watches for the NE or NC.

TS watches 2 weeks away?

Lol no. I meant in 2 weeks probably nothing more than what Jose did which was some TS watches for the NE. My gut tells me it won't be a huge problem for conus. Thats if this thing even develops.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Euro coming in further southwest (of GFS)

[toad strangler]

Euro is gonna plow right into the DR

[HurricaneFrances04]

Pretty good agreement between the Euro and GFS through 96 hours

Models trending towards a Jose 2017 like track. Maybe some TS watches for the NE or NC.

TS watches 2 weeks away?

Lol no. I meant in 2 weeks probably nothing more than what Jose did which was some TS watches for the NE. My gut tells me it won't be a huge problem for conus. Thats if this thing even develops.

Probably closer to Irene (2011) than Jose in my opinion, but we're still over a week away

[toad strangler]

NW turn at 168. Heading now similar to 12z GFS after crossing Eastern DR

[aspen]

Models trending towards a Jose 2017 like track. Maybe some TS watches for the NE or NC.

That seems to be the consensus today: a Jose-like path near the NW Caribbean. Could ride north of the Greater Antilles and through the Bahamas like Dorian, but since it’s late July and not late August, it’ll probably max out as a moderate major hurricane if given the right conditions, and not a behemoth Cat 5.

[Blown Away]

Euro is gonna plow right into the DR

If I had a dollar for every GFS/EURO run from a system in the E Atlantic that crashes into Hispaniola, I’d make about $20 a year.

[chaser1]

Euro is gonna plow right into the DR

If I had a dollar for every GFS/EURO run from a system in the E Atlantic that crashes into Hispaniola, I’d make about $20 a year.

You'd probably make more then that LOL

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF a chunk SW of the GFS at 192 hours. Right in the middle of the SE Bahamas.

[toad strangler]

ECMWF a chunk SW of the GFS at 192 hours. Right in the middle of the SE Bahamas.

Pretty weak too so 500mb not a great tool to predict next move

[AutoPenalti]

Yikes, Euro pretty much takes it to the SE Bahamas, Moving NW/WNW.

[HurricaneFrances04]

JMA

[chaser1]

ECMWF a chunk SW of the GFS at 192 hours. Right in the middle of the SE Bahamas.

Yep, appearing like it's running up hurricane alley. So, now the EURO has the storm feeling the E. CONUS short wave and jumping toward the Mona Passage, just for heights to build to the north as the trough lifts and pulls out. Next short wave please......?