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TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.
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sma10 wrote:TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.
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The models have been performing subpar all season, and everyone knows it. Yet, over and over again, amnesia returns: "harmless fish", "you can bet on it" ... based on 168hr forecasts LMAO
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.
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otowntiger wrote:. Agreed. Trends are certainly good today, but it is still way too early to rule anything in or out given the usual uncertainties for this range but even more so given the wild day to day swings we’ve witnessed in the models this year. Wild swings and inconsistency have been more prevalent than years past.LarryWx wrote:chris_fit wrote:Majority of the 12Z EPS are clustered around the Operational run - EAST/North and probably out to sea round 55W/60W
Yeah, whereas the 0Z EPS had ~1/4 of its members threatening the Caribbean and/or Bahamas/US, the 12Z has about half that doing the same or ~1/8 threatening those areas. So, now I can say that the entire 12Z suite of models is implying less of a threat to the Caribbean, CONUS, and Bahamas than before. But those areas are still far from getting the all clear at this very early stage, especially considering the other tropical features that increase unpredictability, the wild model swings that have occurred, it being La Niña, and with no LLC yet identified.
TheStormExpert wrote:They can change as they have multiple times already. But right now they seem to be locking in on a quick recurve. Haven’t seen anyone post the 12z EPS so they must not be too threatening.
sma10 wrote:TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.
This thread is about to become dormant.
The models have been performing subpar all season, and everyone knows it. Yet, over and over again, amnesia returns: "harmless fish", "you can bet on it" ... based on 168hr forecasts LMAO
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.
This thread is about to become dormant.
sma10 wrote:sma10 wrote:TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: When those two are in excellent agreement you can bet that’ll likely be the outcome. Looks like this may be a fish storm going that harmlessly goes out to sea.
This thread is about to become dormant.
The models have been performing subpar all season, and everyone knows it. Yet, over and over again, amnesia returns: "harmless fish", "you can bet on it" ... based on 168hr forecasts LMAO
We'll see. But i would feel exactly the same if they both had a 168hr bullseye right on top of PR .. not bloody likely
cheezyWXguy wrote:sma10 wrote:sma10 wrote:
The models have been performing subpar all season, and everyone knows it. Yet, over and over again, amnesia returns: "harmless fish", "you can bet on it" ... based on 168hr forecasts LMAO
We'll see. But i would feel exactly the same if they both had a 168hr bullseye right on top of PR .. not bloody likely
Yep. There’s a reason the NHC doesn’t do 10 day forecasts
TheStormExpert wrote:They can change as they have multiple times already. But right now they seem to be locking in on a quick recurve. Haven’t seen anyone post the 12z EPS so they must not be too threatening.
sma10 wrote:The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards
TheStormExpert wrote:sma10 wrote:The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards
Alright throw that model out!
sma10 wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:sma10 wrote:The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards
Alright throw that model out!
Ridiculous, right?
sma10 wrote:The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards
sma10 wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:sma10 wrote:The ICON throws a huge plot twist at 18z: has 95L 600 miles SW of 12z at 120 hours; and has Rene making a run at the NE Leewards
Alright throw that model out!
Ridiculous, right?
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