ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Well this could be close to home. Escalatin' pretty quickly

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks to be coming together near/or just over extreme northern Andros Island. I will go out on a limb and say we get a TC out of this before it moves over FL. Main impacts to S FL will be the same: heavy rainfall with some gusty winds. But if we see genesis that early, that would allow more time for intensification in the Gulf. Folks along the north Gulf should pay close attention to 96L.

[aspen]

We were all expecting 95L to become Sally, but now it looks like 96L will steal the name. 95L will probably take another 48-60 hours to develop into a TC, while 96L seems poised to become one within 12 hours.

[xironman]

Radar is beginning to to rapidly show rotation to the convection near the north tip of Andros..

If you look at the low level clouds, they are clearly being pulled in about there.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks to be coming together near/or just over extreme northern Andros Island. I will go out on a limb and say we get a TC out of this before it moves over FL. Main impacts to S FL will be the same: heavy rainfall with some gusty winds. But if we see genesis that early, that would allow more time for intensification in the Gulf. Folks along the north Gulf should pay close attention to 96L.

Agreed. Radar from Miami and bahamas showing a rapidly developing llc.

interesting.. makes the potential gulf outlook a little more grim..

[SouthDadeFish]

I think the NHC needs to consider issuing PTC advisories at 5 pm considering how close this system is to land...

[Aric Dunn]

Radar is beginning to to rapidly show rotation to the convection near the north tip of Andros..

If you look at the low level clouds, they are clearly being pulled in about there.

yeah mentioned that a few pages back.. there was a sudden shift in the low level cloud motion being pulled in..

well on its way now..

[hurricaneCW]

Yeah this spinning up so quickly is definitely concerning and we have globals like the Euro jumping on board.

Conditions look very favorable pretty much throughout its entire lifecycle. The only thing missing is a well defined LLC, once it gets that it could really take off.

I don't even see its passage over S FL being much of a hindrance.

[xironman]

Looks like the go tomorrow.

Code: Select all

    2. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 12/1800Z                   A. 13/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0219A CYCLONE
       C. 12/1600Z                   C. 13/0400Z
       D. 26.0N 82.5W                D. 26.5N 84.0W
       E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2200Z       E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
       A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0319A CYCLONE
       C. 13/1000Z
       D. 27.0N 84.5W
       E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z

[GCANE]

5000 CAPE over S FL with cumulus building.
Going to see a large blowup of convection in a few hours.
Should take a good chunk out of the PV streamer currently holding back intensification of 96L.
Going to increase chances of stronger intensification once 96L gets into the GoM.

https://i.imgur.com/YioYkKU.gif

Are there weather conditions us non professionals are unaware of in the GOM that could hinder an intensification? To me it APPEARS the environment in the GOM is prime for intensification. But how intense?

Mid next week there will very likely be a large anticyclone over the GoM.
I detailed this in the models thread earlier this morning.
Same kind of setup that was for Laura.

[SFLcane]

I think the NHC needs to consider issuing PTC advisories at 5 pm considering how close this system is to land...

Are there obs of TS force winds?

[hurricanehunter69]

Jesus.....look at the mid level dry air environment this thing has to take advantage of.....By way of comparison, look at how Paulette is surrounded by mid level dry air and is nevertheless forecasted to become a cat 2 hurricane. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[BigB0882]

Seems like the early model runs favor MS/AL border to very western FL pandhandle. I would like to think of it as a sigh of relief for us in SELA being that this is not that far out but I worry the tracks could definitely swing once it forms and models have an even better grasp. They must not be seeing a very robust ridge.

[Jr0d]

Pressure is dropping from Miami to Key West. Fairly light winds though. ENE winds in Miami, N winds in Key West are consistent with a center near Andros.

This might consolidate quicker than expected. Also there is no mention of the system on Key West NWS hazardous weather outlook. We have a 50% pop tonite and 60% tomorrow with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. This outlook will need to be updated soon.

[TallahasseeMan]

Could development be aided by land interaction with Florida? Tighten up the convection?

[Sanibel]

Looks like it is going to form from appearance...

[jlauderdal]

Looks to be coming together near/or just over extreme northern Andros Island. I will go out on a limb and say we get a TC out of this before it moves over FL. Main impacts to S FL will be the same: heavy rainfall with some gusty winds. But if we see genesis that early, that would allow more time for intensification in the Gulf. Folks along the north Gulf should pay close attention to 96L.

Agreed. Radar from Miami and bahamas showing a rapidly developing llc.

interesting.. makes the potential gulf outlook a little more grim..

Convection has certainly increased significantly the last 6 hours which will help to intensify the system

[ClarCari]

UGHH GAWWD The current satellite appearance of this thing looks tooo much like Katrina and Rita in their infant stage in the Bahamas. Obviously not saying it will be as bad and not ruling out it could be as bad or worse, just that this is tugging at my emotions right now..

It’s like if you were watching a Hornet’s nest slowly grow in front of your house .

[northjaxpro]

Could development be aided by land interaction with Florida? Tighten up the convection?

Yes. The frictional effects of land interaction can help to tighten and coalesce a surface low level circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

I smell TD advisories coming at 5..

Also looks like this will become Sally before 95L