WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS peaks this at 956mb before landfall in the low 960s.

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 290630

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI)

B. 29/0600Z

C. 16.78N

D. 135.85E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0.MET YIELDS 3.5. PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/0049Z 16.62N 136.80E MMHS
29/0330Z 16.68N 136.02E GPMI
29/0356Z 16.82N 135.88E AMS2
29/0410Z 16.75N 136.07E ATMS


YOUNG

[Hayabusa]

946 mb but that run seems to be garbage...

[Hayabusa]

70 knots typhoon

22W GONI 201029 0600 16.8N 135.8E WPAC 70 982

[Hayabusa]

STY peak

WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AND WRAPPING
INTO AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
WHILE AN EYE HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THE VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY, A
PERSISTENT AND WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 36
GHZ AND 89 GHZ BANDS IN A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AT 290330Z,
290356Z AND 290640Z, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS), BASED PRIMARILY ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF
T4.4 (75 KNOTS), AND AN AMSR2-BASED WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 66 KNOTS AT
250356Z, INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAD ALREADY REACHED TYPHOON STRENGTH A
COUPLE OF HOURS PRIOR TO THE 0600Z HOUR. TY 22W HAS TRACKED JUST A BIT
NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS
THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE STR TO THE NORTH, DRAWING THE SYSTEM IN A
BIT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH VERY WARM (30-31 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS WITH
HIGH OHC VALUES (GREATER THAN 150), LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE WHICH LIES VERY NEARLY
OVERHEAD THE LLCC, AND A DEVELOPING TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL DUE TO THE COL AREA NOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED ONCE AGAIN DUE TO
INCREASES IN INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM SWITCHES TO THE STR CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.
TY 22W WILL TRANSIT THROUGH AN AREA OF VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS
AND VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 150) OHC, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ROBUST DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND VERY LOW (5 KNOTS OR LESS) VWS, WILL
ALLOW FOR EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF AT LEAST 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE
MAJOR OUTLIER KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A FLATTER TRAJECTORY TOWARDS
NORTHERN LUZON THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS HAVE A TIGHT ENVELOPE WITH AN 85 NM SPREAD AT TAU
72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 72 IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITIES THAT ARE RARELY SEEN, WITH VALUES
STRONGLY SUPPORTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF 40 KNOTS OR MORE WITHIN
36 HOURS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE STR, WITH LANDFALL
IN CENTRAL LUZON EXPECTED AROUND TAU 84 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. AFTER REACHING A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS, VWS QUICKLY INCREASES TO
GREATER THAN 20-25 KNOTS AFTER TAU 72 LEADING TO AN INITIALLY SLOW
WEAKENING TREND, WHICH THEN INCREASES AFTER LANDFALL. BY TAU 96, THE
SYSTEM WILL REEMERGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A MUCH WEAKENED
SYSTEM DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF TERRAIN INTERACTION, MODERATE TO
HIGH VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 105 NM AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WITH A 420 NM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AT TAU 120, WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AND GFS BEING MUCH FASTER.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE INCREASING ALONG-TRACK SPREAD.//
NNNN

[aspen]

Holy jeez, this is ramping up quick. This could be a Super Typhoon tomorrow at this rate.

Microwave from overnight looks good.

[euro6208]

STY peak

I applaud them for acknowledging that it was a typhoon before 06z. Rarely do you see them do this for past systems.

[euro6208]

[ejeraldmc]

Holy jeez, this is ramping up quick. This could be a Super Typhoon tomorrow at this rate.

Microwave from overnight looks good.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/amsusr89/2020wp22_amsusr89_202010290242.gif

I wonder if its rapid strengthening would affect its track?

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 974.0mb/ 79.6kt

[mrbagyo]

Current compact structure looks quite similar to Typhoon Chebi of 06 ( track also looks similar).
Compact storms are prone to huge fluctuation of intensity so we shouldn't be surprised if Goni undergoes explosive deepening like Chebi (57 mb drop in 6 hrs)

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Looks like the capital is now safe from a direct hit

[Hayabusa]

STS 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 29 October 2020

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 29 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°40' (16.7°)
E134°35' (134.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 30 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°25' (16.4°)
E131°10' (131.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 165 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 31 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E128°05' (128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°30' (15.5°)
E122°40' (122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 360 km (195 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 2 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°25' (16.4°)
E118°00' (118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E114°35' (114.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)

[dexterlabio]

Looks like the capital is now safe from a direct hit
https://i.imgur.com/3SrowE7.png

That would depend on the timing and degree of the WSW dip. The strength of the STR can sometimes be tricky to anticipate.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 971.9mb/ 82.2kt

[euro6208]

[doomhaMwx]

06Z HWRF run even more north.

[aspen]

Where can I find WPac system IR imagery in the same filter as the ones on Tropical Tidbits?

[dexterlabio]

Eye peeking alert