ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1321910455695265792
If this ends up moving into CA, then maybe the Florida “shield” is real after all.

I think the Nov TC's pretty much came from CAG's.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1321917745659871232

Yep looks like your typical November Caribbean hurricane like the ones mentioned which has the potential for being BIG with significant impacts to some places in the Caribbean. Still feel confident the US and Florida won’t be impacted. If any impacts, any storm would likely be a shell of itself anyway if it tries to head north. And yes even “but it is 2020” won’t matter here in my opinion.

[Fancy1001]

2020 is still missing its category 5, could Eta finally be it?

[SFLcane]

My only concern with 96L is it will slow to a crawl once it nears CA which in a sense might allow time for next trof to catch it if it’s far enough north.

[us89]

There is a real risk that this system could stall as it nears and impacts Central America. Depending on timing and proximity, our prospective system could technically make landfall on the Miskito Coast but not move far inland before turning northward, toward western Cuba and/or Florida. Bear in mind that the Miskito Coast is quite marshy and relatively flat, while mountainous terrain lies well inland. A powerful system that briefly impacts Central America and does not proceed well inland would only weaken slightly before reemerging over the Gulf of Honduras. One could then see, hypothetically, a Category-4+ landfall near Cabo Gracias a Dios, followed by a track that curves northward toward Pinar del Río, the Keys, and/or southernmost peninsular Florida.

My question to you is although climo wise a track ne is what you’d expect but all I see in the modeling is a big high pressure ridge building in a few days hence the big wsw dips in the models. I just don’t see it right now

There are still a few ensemble members that show a northward track, so we can't entirely rule it out just yet...but yes, the majority of the guidance is showing a W-SW track across the Caribbean thanks to that Florida ridge, er, "force field".

[Blown Away]

It seems the modeling has underestimated the high pressure all season.

[Wampadawg]

I am a newbie here ,question how accurate are the models this far out?

[Iceresistance]

I am a newbie here ,question how accurate are the models this far out?

Lower as time gets farther from the initiation.

[Iceresistance]

I am a newbie here ,question how accurate are the models this far out?

Either way, welcome to the team!

[cp79]

My only concern with 96L is it will slow to a crawl once it nears CA which in a sense might allow time for next trof to catch it if it’s far enough north.

A trough would have to dig down quite far, and even so it would more than likely then push it NE which is what some show long term. I’m not saying the US is out of the woods, but it’s chances of dodging Eta are quite good as of where things stand now. But that could change. But models seem to be in very strong agreement right now and that’s usually a sign it won’t deviate from them.

[Blown Away]

I am a newbie here ,question how accurate are the models this far out?

Generally the GFS/Euro are pretty good with track in the 72 hour window and fairly good up to 120 hours, usually by a couple hundred miles. The TVCN, not a model, just an average of a group of models is the best to watch b/c if the NHC issues a track its almost always very close to the TVCN (Gray) line.

[Wampadawg]

I am a newbie here ,question how accurate are the models this far out?

Either way, welcome to the team!

Thanks moved down to Pearland Texas from Alberta several years ago and bam experienced
Harvey, started following here during Beta which gave us 12 inches rain, learning about the tropics.
But i can talk snow storms and cold with the neat of them.

[Iceresistance]

I am a newbie here ,question how accurate are the models this far out?

Either way, welcome to the team!

Thanks moved down to Pearland Texas from Alberta several years ago and bam experienced
Harvey, started following here during Beta which gave us 12 inches rain, learning about the tropics.
But i can talk snow storms and cold with the neat of them.

There is a forum for Texas Winter 2020-2021, you should go there if you want to talk about winter weather.

[Iceresistance]

Nothing on ASCAT yet on 96L

[CyclonicFury]

Nothing on ASCAT yet on 96L

ASCAT typically passes the Caribbean around 10 pm-12 am EDT. We likely won't get a pass for a few hours at least, and it's possible it could miss.

[Iceresistance]

The Forecast Advisory from the NHC comes out at 7, let's wait & see on what they say about 96L.

[ElectricStorm]

The Forecast Advisory from the NHC comes out at 7, let's wait & see on what they say about 96L.

Tropical Weather Outlook

[Iceresistance]

The Forecast Advisory from the NHC comes out at 7, let's wait & see on what they say about 96L.

Tropical Weather Outlook

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I still consider the forecast advisory since it's when they do the Invests but okay.

[cycloneye]

80%/90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is
slowly becoming better organized, and conditions appear conducive
for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form
this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC
islands and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[ElectricStorm]

80%/90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is
slowly becoming better organized, and conditions appear conducive
for further development. A tropical depression is likely to form
this weekend as the system moves westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC
islands and Jamaica through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

I bet we'll have PTC29 sometime tomorrow

[Iceresistance]

Is the 96L getting stronger or weaker in wind speed or pressure?