ATL: ETA - Models

[Hurricane Jed]

Two words for the 18Z GFS “NOT HAPPENING” lol.

The “Giving Florida Storms” model is at it again.

Yep, same thoughts here! Especially considering it's over a week out. Been here way too many times this season to be fooled once again.

How many times has the GFS cried wolf for Florida this season? I lost count after 12.

Given the way 2020 has gone and this season has surprised us, it would be very unwise to rule anything out. Speaking of crying wolf you’ve called every season since 2014 a 2013 repeat including this one.

[Spacecoast]

Among the many things that I wish and hope would end, this hurricane season is right up there near the top of my list. I do not wish more weather related misery upon anyone in any country, island, or state. Not Florida, not Honduras, or Nicaragua, & especially not Louisiana or Bermuda.

However for 96L, wishing, and hoping is not very realistic or scientific. It is very clear genesis will ocur, and a strong cyclone is likely. So I look to the models for guidance to help me safely prepare my family. I do not view it as entertainment.

The models are the best tools I have to accomplish this, (along with expert opinions). But they have a quantifiable track errors that are very, very substantial after 120 hours, so discussing 7+ day scenarios of specific tracks seem less than useful for my purposes.

Back on topic, here are the 0z spaghetti plots with GEFS(32 members), GFS Operational, HMON, HWRF, NAV, CMC, TAB(s), etc:

* White is consensus
* Dark blue (into Miami) is GFS Operational, which appears to be an outlier, at the moment.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is farther north just north of Honduras, the fact there seems to be a trend north is not something one wants to see as this could become a real humdinger

[SFLcane]

The 0zGFS is farther north just north of Honduras, the fact there seems to be a trend north is not something one wants to see as this could become a real humdinger

Was just going to post this. Gfs already heading north at 150hrs.

[skyline385]

Much weaker ridging in 0Z GFS

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 0zGFS is farther north just north of Honduras, the fact there seems to be a trend north is not something one wants to see as this could become a real humdinger

Was just going to post this. Gfs already heading north at 150hrs.

here comes the florida impact.

[SFLcane]

The 0zGFS is farther north just north of Honduras, the fact there seems to be a trend north is not something one wants to see as this could become a real humdinger

Was just going to post this. Gfs already heading north at 150hrs.

here comes the florida impact.

No bueno!

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is farther north just north of Honduras, the fact there seems to be a trend north is not something one wants to see as this could become a real humdinger

Was just going to post this. Gfs already heading north at 150hrs.

here comes the florida impact.

Yep, Something like between a Wilma and a Charley. Florida needs to keep an eye on this one and Cuba especially after Central America

[ElectricStorm]

Maybe the people who were saying that this was 100% not going to Florida will take it more seriously now...

[skyline385]

Its recurving away into the Gulf or stalling

[AutoPenalti]

Give it 3 more runs before it verifies.


I knew it was too good to be true.

[SFLcane]

Big trof incoming...

[Loveweather12]

Is the 00z GFS model more respected? I see a lot of people clown the 18z and if the 00z is more trusted and better, than we seriously have to watch for trends as for now things are moving N.
What is the best day do you think we might get a better handle on the future track? Monday?

[SFLcane]

Only one way to go here and that’s NE eventually with trof coming into the picture.

[skyline385]

Actually getting pushed into the Gulf after Stalling Near SFL, has any storm ever taken a path like this coming from the Caribbean ?

[ElectricStorm]

Is the 00z GFS model more respected? I see a lot of people clown the 18z and if the 00z is more trusted and better, than we seriously have to watch for trends as for now things are moving N.
What is the best day do you think we might get a better handle on the future track? Monday?

The 18z is dubbed the "happy hour" because it has been known to throw out weird and crazy runs at times. But some people on here at like it isn't even a real model...
But yes the 0z is generally more trustworthy.

[sma10]

Maybe the people who were saying that this was 100% not going to Florida will take it more seriously now...

Fact - these late Oct/early Nov Caribbean systems don't come along too often, but when they do they are notoriously unpredictable. Pay little attention to any "100%" proclamations

[Torgo]

Key West would be buffeted by sustained hurricane force winds for nearly 24 hours.

[Fancy1001]

Maybe the people who were saying that this was 100% not going to Florida will take it more seriously now...

Fact - these late Oct/early Nov Caribbean systems don't come along too often, but when they do they are notoriously unpredictable. Pay little attention to any "100%" proclamations

This storm will be 100% unpredictable.

[sma10]

Actually getting pushed into the Gulf after Stalling Near SFL, has any storm ever taken a path like this coming from the Caribbean ?

Check out Hurricane Gordon, 1994. November tracks can be VERY odd