ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

We're at the point with 92L/PTC9 that if this were a sitcom and the competing lobes were a "will they or wont they" situation, it would be stale and boring.
Some one make a move already

Lol. I feel your frustration.Imagine.how analysts like me and all the others in this business are feeling? There ate going to be systems like these that are going to pop up each and every season. PTC 9. Well It certainly has added more bags under my eyes and gray hairs to yours truly that's for sure!

However, I have been doing this too long to know that this is all just par for the course.

Is there a past system that you could compare this to? One that was as frustrating to figure out? I’ve been staring at this thing for a week now and feel like I know less about the end game than I did a week ago...

[ScottNAtlanta]

We're at the point with 92L/PTC9 that if this were a sitcom and the competing lobes were a "will they or wont they" situation, it would be stale and boring.
Some one make a move already

Lol. I feel your frustration.Imagine.how analysts like me and all the others in this business are feeling? There ate going to be systems like these that are going to pop up each and every season. PTC 9. Well It certainly has added more bags under my eyes and gray hairs to yours truly that's for sure!

However, I have been doing this too long to know that this is all just par for the course.

Is there a past system that you could compare this to? One that was as frustrating to figure out? I’ve been staring at this thing for a week now and feel like I know less about the end game than I did a week ago...

The Fay before this years was a real pain...or maybe 2 Fays ago...they tend to run together after awhile...there was a past Cristobol that was a pain...and a past Chantal

[eastcoastFL]

I think one could make a compelling case for a shot clock on a PTC. whatever reasonable time that would be...this has far exceeded it. Multiple forecast cycles putting a track on a center that doesn't exist... must be frustrating for both forecasters and definitely the public. No one outside the weather world even knows what a PTC is.

I guess the problem with that is this one despite not having a circ closed off did actually require TS warnings. It’s a wave with TS force winds going out 275 miles so what would you do in that case for advisories?

[eastcoastFL]

Lol. I feel your frustration.Imagine.how analysts like me and all the others in this business are feeling? There ate going to be systems like these that are going to pop up each and every season. PTC 9. Well It certainly has added more bags under my eyes and gray hairs to yours truly that's for sure!

However, I have been doing this too long to know that this is all just par for the course.

Is there a past system that you could compare this to? One that was as frustrating to figure out? I’ve been staring at this thing for a week now and feel like I know less about the end game than I did a week ago...

The Fay before this years was a real pain...or maybe 2 Fays ago...they tend to run together after awhile

Is that the one that was headed to the Carolinas as a cat 4 and then just hit the breaks and churned up cold water and just flooded out the area?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think one could make a compelling case for a shot clock on a PTC. whatever reasonable time that would be...this has far exceeded it. Multiple forecast cycles putting a track on a center that doesn't exist... must be frustrating for both forecasters and definitely the public. No one outside the weather world even knows what a PTC is.

I guess the problem with that is this one despite not having a circ closed off did actually require TS warnings. It’s a wave with TS force winds going out 275 miles so what would you do in that case for advisories?

Gale Warnings

[northjaxpro]

Lol. I feel your frustration.Imagine.how analysts like me and all the others in this business are feeling? There ate going to be systems like these that are going to pop up each and every season. PTC 9. Well It certainly has added more bags under my eyes and gray hairs to yours truly that's for sure!

Ye

However, I have been doing this too long to know that this is all just par for the course.

Is there a past system that you could compare this to? One that was as frustrating to figure out? I’ve been staring at this thing for a week now and feel like I know less about the end game than I did a week ago...

The Fay before this years was a real pain...or maybe 2 Fays ago...they tend to run together after awhile

I believe you are referring to TS Fay in 2008.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is there a past system that you could compare this to? One that was as frustrating to figure out? I’ve been staring at this thing for a week now and feel like I know less about the end game than I did a week ago...

The Fay before this years was a real pain...or maybe 2 Fays ago...they tend to run together after awhile

Is that the one that was headed to the Carolinas as a cat 4 and then just hit the breaks and churned up cold water and just flooded out the area?

Its the one that ran up the spine of FL and intensified somehow along the way...got to hurricane intensity while over land...anyone feel free to correct me if my memory isnt quite right

[psyclone]

I think one could make a compelling case for a shot clock on a PTC. whatever reasonable time that would be...this has far exceeded it. Multiple forecast cycles putting a track on a center that doesn't exist... must be frustrating for both forecasters and definitely the public. No one outside the weather world even knows what a PTC is.

I guess the problem with that is this one despite not having a circ closed off did actually require TS warnings. It’s a wave with TS force winds going out 275 miles so what would you do in that case for advisories?

Gale Warnings

Bingo. I'm old enough to remember when there were no TS warnings. Hurricane warnings were flanked by gale warnings. I recall this back in the 80's.

[eastcoastFL]

The Fay before this years was a real pain...or maybe 2 Fays ago...they tend to run together after awhile

Is that the one that was headed to the Carolinas as a cat 4 and then just hit the breaks and churned up cold water and just flooded out the area?

Its the one that ran up the spine of FL and intensified somehow along the way...got to hurricane intensity while over land

I thought that was WILMA tho she came from the gulf. I’m on the east coast of Florida and our local met told us she was going to be a TS by the time she got here.... they were wrong

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is there a past system that you could compare this to? One that was as frustrating to figure out? I’ve been staring at this thing for a week now and feel like I know less about the end game than I did a week ago...

The Fay before this years was a real pain...or maybe 2 Fays ago...they tend to run together after awhile

I believe you are referring to TS Fay in 2008.

So that was 2 Fays ago...they really do run together if they dont get retired.
It made 4 separate landfalls in FL and caused a lot of flooding
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Fay_(2008)
I forgot Ernesto (2006)! The one that made JB lose it...he still complains about that storm

[eastcoastFL]

I guess the problem with that is this one despite not having a circ closed off did actually require TS warnings. It’s a wave with TS force winds going out 275 miles so what would you do in that case for advisories?

Gale Warnings

Bingo. I'm old enough to remember when there were no TS warnings. Hurricane warnings were flanked by gale warnings. I recall this back in the 80's.

80s I was alive but not quite remembering much yet...quite a bit has changed from TS watches to naming snow storms...

[Hurricane Mike]

I've been out all night.

I cannot believe this doesn't have a name. The damn media is calling it "Isaias" anyways. It has tropical storm force sustained winds. Just peg an ill-defined center.

[northjaxpro]

The Fay before this years was a real pain...or maybe 2 Fays ago...they tend to run together after awhile

Is that the one that was headed to the Carolinas as a cat 4 and then just hit the breaks and churned up cold water and just flooded out the area?

Its the one that ran up the spine of FL and intensified somehow along the way...got to hurricane intensity while over land...anyone feel free to correct me if my memory isnt quite right

Fay in 2008 is one of the most fascinating cyclones I have both experienced and analyzed. I don't want to consume this space to talk about it, but just go pull it up on archives or Wiki and it will give you all the summary of that remarkable cyclone for yours truly.

[aspen]

If PTC-9 does not develop, it would’ve been an agonizing waste of our time for the last several days.

If PTC-9 does develop, it could either be a significant threat to Florida/the Bahamas (strong TS/weak C1), or it could end up as a pathetic first use of the name Isaias.

I want this to amount to something for all the trouble it’s given us, but Dorian-weary parts of the Bahamas do not need a TS passing over them.

[NDG]

Well, PTC-9 now has the NW winds it never had before, confirmed by buoy 42059



https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42059

[eastcoastFL]

Is that the one that was headed to the Carolinas as a cat 4 and then just hit the breaks and churned up cold water and just flooded out the area?

Its the one that ran up the spine of FL and intensified somehow along the way...got to hurricane intensity while over land...anyone feel free to correct me if my memory isnt quite right

Fay in 2008 is one of the most fascinating cyclones I have both experienced and analyzed. I don't want to consume this space to talk about it, but just go pull it up on archives or Wiki and it will give you all the summary of that remarkable cyclone for yours truly.

I looked it up and I remember this now. We lived in st lucie then and the sheriffs dept were driving up our road in boats. That’s when I learned a TS isn’t something to ignore... thank you!

I hope PTC 9 doesn’t deliver that kind of rain when it finally shows up.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well, PTC-9 now has the NW winds it never had before, confirmed by buoy 42059

https://i.imgur.com/3bLIHfC.gif

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42059

The pressure was really starting to fall at that buoy...I wish we had a newer report. It hasn't reported in 2 hours

[Aric Dunn]

Satellite and radar are pretty convincing finally that we have a well defiend circ.

[eastcoastFL]

A bit of convection blowing up now I believe east of where the NHC has put the “center”

[cheezyWXguy]

I guess the problem with that is this one despite not having a circ closed off did actually require TS warnings. It’s a wave with TS force winds going out 275 miles so what would you do in that case for advisories?

Gale Warnings

Bingo. I'm old enough to remember when there were no TS warnings. Hurricane warnings were flanked by gale warnings. I recall this back in the 80's.

I don’t think from a public warning perspective it makes much sense to use gale warnings in this case. With a system that could potentially close off a center and be classified at any time, gale warnings would have to be changed to tropical storm warnings as soon as the classification occurred. Seeing as both of these mean exactly the same thing from a public impact perspective, it would largely be regarded as a useless distinction that, if anything, would probably cause people to shrug off warnings more. I’ve babbled on and on about weather to friends and family for most of my life and most of them still can’t remember the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning, and I think this would just be another item to add on that pile.